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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa. Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012. Introduction. Work Commissioned by SANEDI SA Transport sector 28 % of TFC. The

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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

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  1. Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012

  2. Introduction • Work Commissioned by SANEDI • SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The • Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009)(IEA, 2011). • Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios • Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios. • Resulting demand for energy in scenarios. • CO2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios? Transport Sector Model

  3. Systems Dynamics Considerations Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010 Transport Sector Model

  4. Multi-Model Solution Base Year Time Budget Model Calibrated Vehicle Parc Model Baseline P-km, T-km/ Mode-share 3 Income Groups: • Average km/h • Public/private split WIDER CGE Model Projected Income of Household Deciles 2005 - 2030 Energy Demand Future Year Time Budget Model Projected P-km Mode-share ANSWER TIMES Model Future FE Assump. Transport Sector Model

  5. Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model Scrapping Factor NAAMSA Vehicle Sales Vehicle Parc Model Enatis Check Vehicle Mileage/Decay Vehicle km Occupancy P-km, T-km/ Mode-share Fuel Consumption Fuel Economy/ Improvement Natmap/SOL Check SAPIA/EB Check Transport Sector Model

  6. Mileage Decay Still a Guess Transport Sector Model

  7. TBM – The Gospel According to Victor & Schafer Transport Sector Model

  8. TBM – Simple Principle PKM = Total Passenger.km per year Fij = Fraction in motion on mode j by income group i. Sj = Average Speed of mode j Ti = Travel Time Budget per person per year for income group i Nij = Number of people in income group i using mode j Transport Sector Model

  9. TBM – Salient Assumptions Transport Sector Model

  10. TBM – Refinements • TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low • Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM • Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study • Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified Transport Sector Model

  11. Freight Model – Balances Fuel but Poor Agreement with the SOL Transport Sector Model

  12. Some Results Transport Sector Model

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