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The Emergence of Moore’s Law

The Emergence of Moore’s Law. By Ray Kurzweil from book < The age of spiritual machines >. Moore’s Law.

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The Emergence of Moore’s Law

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  1. The Emergence of Moore’s Law By Ray Kurzweil from book < The age of spiritual machines>

  2. Moore’s Law • In 1965, Moore asserted that one could pack twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit in every 1 ~ 2 years, which would double both compactness of circuits and speed of computing. • Taking cost into account, every two years one can get twice as much circuitry running at twice the speed for the same price. • Moore’s law has held true in the past forty years.

  3. Exponential Growth of Computing Power • Moore’s Law asserted exponential growth of computing power. • Let S0 be the computing speed at some year, and Sn speed after n years. Then Sn = S0 * 2 0.5n

  4. Exponential Growth • The increases are slow and unnoticeable at first, and become dramatic (explosive) after certain points.

  5. Linear Growth vs. Exponential Growth • Let X be the speed at beginning. • Linear growth: • If every two years, the speed is increased by X, then after 40 years, the speed would be (40/2)X = 20X. • Exponential growth: • If every 2 years, the speed is doubled, then after 40 years, the speed would be (240/2)X = 220X= 1,048,576 X.

  6. An example: IRA • Option A: You put $1,000 into an IRA with annual increase 12%. • Option B: You put $1,000 into an retirement institution that adds $1,000 to your account every year. • You cannot take money out till after 45 years. • Which option would you choose?

  7. 100 Million Times • Computing power (speed/cost) has increased 100 million times in the past 50 years. • If auto industry had made such a progress, a car today would cost a 0.01 cent and run faster than the light. • If food industry had made such a progress, a dollar now could purchase a pound of flour for every American.

  8. Limit of Speed on Circuit • Number of transistors on a chip cannot be unlimitedly large, since two transistors cannot be closer than the size of an atom. • Moore’s Law will break down after years. • But computing power may continue to increase by using some other technology.

  9. Exponential Growth of Computing in Past 100 Years • Before electronic computers, people used fingers, abacus, slide rule, mechanical computer to speed up computing (p.22-23). • From 1900 to 1998, computing speed increased exponentially (p.24). • Moore’s law only showed the last 40 years growth (the 5th paradigm).

  10. Exponential Growth will Continue • Exponential growth of computing speed will not stop even after the compactness of a chip is to its extreme. • New technology and approach will relay the growth as the 6th paradigm.

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