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Berenson/Williams Capital. March 23, 2004. Safe Harbor Provisions.
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Berenson/Williams Capital March 23, 2004
Safe Harbor Provisions This presentation contains statements that may be considered forward looking statements, such as management’s expectations of future earnings, cash position, sources of funds, coverage ratios, market conditions, customer growth, regulatory action, and the anticipated completion of various projects. These statements speak of the Company’s plans, goals, beliefs, or expectations, refer to estimates or use similar terms. Actual results could differ materially. All forward looking statements included in this presentation are based upon information presently available, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements.
Update on NU’s 2003 Financial Results EPS 2003 2002 2002 2003 EPS Excluding Significant Items Reported EPS
2003 Driven by Improved Competitive Business Results Earnings in Millions Yankee Gas NUEI Services PSNH/ NAEC WMECO NUEI Merchant Energy* CL&P* * Excluding SMD charge
What Created Recovery of Competitive Businesses? • Improved portfolio management • Resized retail organization • Improved realized retail margins • Refocused trading as a wholesale support function significantly reducing risk • Improved rainfall levels impacting hydroelectric output • Improved results from generation assets
Improvement Possible in 2004 Earnings Per Share 2003* 2004 Projected Regulated Businesses $1.05 $1.08 - $1.20 Competitive Businesses $0.25 $0.22 - $0.30 Parent Expense ($0.06) ($0.10) Consolidated NU $1.24 $1.20 - $1.40 *Excludes SMD cost, accounting charge
Key Factors in 2004 Results • Competitive • Managing wholesale book • Achieving success in wholesale RFPs • Expanding retail book and achieving first profitable year • Improving services business • Regulated • PSNH rate case • Improved CL&P results • Yankee Gas recovery • Pension income • O&M controls
Improved Results Expected at CL&P in 2004 • Public Act signed into law June 25, 2003 • Transitional standard offer took effect January 1, 2004 • Rate cap raised 11.1% for 2004 and beyond • Procurement fee of 0.5/mill began January 1 • Additional 0.25 mill incentive can be earned • Could produce $12-$18 million/year of additional pre-tax income • Flow through of all energy related and “federally mandated” costs • Rate decision effective January 1, 2004 • Distribution rates set for four years • Transmission rates increased $28 million • Distribution ROE of 9.85% • Endorsement of $900 distribution capital program • Write off of $16 million pension asset in 2003 – decision on reconsideration due in June
PSNH Update – Current Items • December 2003: PSNH filed rate case requesting 2.6% ($21 million) increase • Hearings in early August • Decision will be retroactive to February 2004 • January 2004: PSNH closed on Connecticut Valley Electric Co. acquisition • $9 million for assets (11,000 customer accounts); $21 million to buy down power contract • February 2004: Energy supply rate rose to 5.36 cents/kwh from 4.6 – 4.67 cents • Based on estimated costs of owned generation and market purchases of power • March 2004: PSNH filed settlement on $70 million conversion of Schiller unit to burn wood (waste)
Pension Costs Remain a Significant Issue for Regulated Businesses $Millions -----Estimated----- Note: Amounts are Pre-Tax. In 2003, approximately 52% of credit was expensed
2004 Competitive Business Net Income Preview by Business Line Total Projected 2004 Net Income $28-$38 Million $4 - $7 million $24 - $31 million Merchant Energy Energy/Generation Services
Key Factors Beyond 2004 • Competitive • Competitiveness in wholesale RFPs • Retail market expansion • Improvements at owned generation • Services expansion • Regulated • Transmission rate case • Transmission build out • Yankee Gas rate case • Sales growth • Cost savings
NU Forecasting Significant Regulated Capital Investment Program $ Millions - Excluding AFUDC
That Needed Investment Will Result in a Growing Distribution Rate Base $ Millions Distribution Rate Base (Electric and Gas)
Siting Process Construction CL&P Transmission Business: $1 Billion Investment Forecast 2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 Phase I (Bethel to Norwalk) • 7/03: Siting Council decision • 12/03: Norwalk Substation expansion began • 6/04: 115kV & 345kV underground construction begins • 8/04: Gas-Insulated Substation starts • 12/04: Overhead line orders under contract $200 M Phase II (Middletown to Norwalk) $496 M * • 5/03: Municipal consultation • 10/03: Siting Council application filed • 12/03 – 2/04: Public hearings process • 3/04 – 4/04: Adjudicative hearings (estimated) • 6/04: DEP filing (estimated) • 10/04: Siting Council decision Capital Program $15 M $36 M $66 M $225 M $190 M $160 M $160 M $160 M * CL&P’s 80% share
Preserving Ratings Requires Strong Balance Sheet (as of 12/31/03) Leverage Target 55% NU Consol. CL&P PSNH WMECO Yankee Gas NGC (Excludes RRBs)
Summary • 2004 earnings projection consistent within street consensus • Street range of $1.25 to $1.36 per share • Plans for transmission buildout progressing • Recovery of competitive businesses on track • Financial and credit profile strong and remains a priority