1 / 14

FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY Kevin D. Leaman Rosenstiel School February 20, 2003

FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY Kevin D. Leaman Rosenstiel School February 20, 2003. CLIVAR, Carbon Cycles, And Storms. U.S. CLIVAR GOALS:. Improve prediction of seasonal to decadal variability; Identify and understand major patterns of climate variability;

keira
Download Presentation

FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN CLIMATE VARIABILITY Kevin D. Leaman Rosenstiel School February 20, 2003

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. FUTURE DIRECTIONS INCLIMATE VARIABILITYKevin D. LeamanRosenstiel SchoolFebruary 20, 2003 CLIVAR, Carbon Cycles, And Storms

  2. U.S. CLIVAR GOALS: • Improve prediction of seasonal to decadal variability; • Identify and understand major patterns of climate variability; • Improve understanding of rapid climate change; • Enhance models; and • Detect and describe global climate changes.

  3. Carbon Cycle “…about 60% of the global oceanic CO2 uptake takes place in the Atlantic sector as a consequence of its intense meridional overturning circulation…”

  4. Accomplishment: Global pCO2 Climatology > 1 million points 4 X 5˚ grid 40 year’s data Centered on 1995 Average ∆pCO2 = -8 µatm Yields a global C-uptake of 1.4 to 2.4 billion tons of C/yr (depending on gas transfer -wind parameterization used) in overall agreement with global constraints Blues= sinks; Reds = sources

  5. Indian Ocean Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean 44.8  6 Pg 20.3  3 Pg 44.5  5 Pg (Sabine et al, 1999) (Sabine et al, 2002) Accomplishment: Measurement Based Anthropogenic CO2 inventory Total Global Inventory for a mean year of 1994 = 110 ± 13 Pg C (Lee et al., 2003)

  6. ATLANTIC CLIVAR FOCI: • Meridional Overturning Cells (MOC); • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); • Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV), including Subtropical Cells (“STC’s”) and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP). • Relation to seasonal and longer-time-scale variations in tropical storm generation for TAV.

  7. Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Wang & Enfield (2001, 2002) NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

  8. Interannual Variability of the WHWP Wang & Enfield 2002 • ==> How do anomalous WPs develop? • Five (5) largest WPs have come in summer following El Niño peaks • …but, large WPs do not follow four (4) of the El Niño peaks • Large WP years are also years of warm tropical North Atlantic • WPs of El Niño onset year show no pattern (can be large or small) • Future: We must understand how El Niño’s tropospheric bridge works • …and, how does the oceanic heat budget respond to create large WP?

  9. Moisture Transports Across WPOGP/PACS:Zhang, Albrecht (RSMAS), Enfield (AOML), Mestas (CIMAS) Eta model vertically integrated water vapor flux July 2002 • Summer <qV> is across Central America and into the central U.S. • Study <qV> from soundings and ETA model • We hope to understand relation to WP changes • How does <qV> interact with No. American Monsoon?

  10. Near-surface (~100m) current and salinity structure (Defant, 1936)

  11. Multi-year tracks of surface drifters deployed in North and Tropical Atlantic (NOAA Drifter Center).

  12. Model drifters in subsurface layer. Tick marks in years, from P. Rizzoli. (Inui et al, 2002)

  13. U.S. CLIVAR Process Study Proposal:”Effects of Atmospheric Forcing and Upper Ocean Teleconnections on Tropical Atlantic SST Variability” …the “STOAREX”(“Shallow Tropical Ocean/Atmosphere Recirculation/Response”) Experiment.

  14. Atlantic Decadal Variability:(Molinari and Mestas, submitted)-SST (red)-Storm Activity (black)-Major Hurricane Activity (green)-NAO summer (blue); annual (orange)

More Related