Methodology at the Office for National Statistics

1. Methodology at the Office for National Statistics Gareth James (Gareth.James@ons.gov.uk) Assistant Statistician ONS

2. Talk Outline • The Office for National Statistics • My experiences at ONS • Careers available at ONS, and how to apply • Your questions

3. National Statistics • NS: Official (Government) Statistics produced independently, to high standards, to meet user requirements, etc. • Statistics Commission to regulate and oversee • Common standards with Europe: the EU, other National Statistics Institutes, etc.

4. Within 30 government departments and agencies, including: HM Treasury Scottish Executive Department of Trade & Industry (DTI) Cabinet Office Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) Inland Revenue HM Customs & Excise Department of Health (DOH) Ministry of Defence (MOD) National Assembly for Wales Office for National Statistics (ONS) Largest UK employer of statisticians - 800 nationally ONS, largest employer of statisticians in the GSS Government Statistical Service (GSS)

5. Office for National Statistics(ONS) • A government agency, produces official and National Statistics about the UK • Production and analysis of statistics on: • the economy, labour market • population, health, society • Registrations

6. Retail Prices Index Producer Price Index Index of Production GDP Births, Marriages and Deaths Population Census Regional Statistics Retail Sales Index Unemployment Statistics Social Surveys Cancer figures Key ONS Products

7. Our Customers • Parliament, ministers • Other government departments • Bank of England • The city, businesses • Europe • Academia and research • Media • Everyone

8. Office for National Statistics Locations Staff • Newport Economic statistics, methodology 1280 • London Economic & Social statistics, methodology 1040 • Titchfield Population statistics, methodology 850 • Southport Registrations - births, deaths, marriages 750

9. About Myself • Academic background: Cardiff University • BSc in Mathematics • PhD in Statistics • University teaching for a year • Which way now? • Stay in academia or teaching? • Try something new?

10. I wanted a career in which I would ... • use my technical statistical knowledge • have good promotion prospects • take responsibilities • be given good training opportunities • stay in Cardiff • Joined ONS in October 2001, as an Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream): • Sample Design & Estimation centre of Methodology Group

11. Structure of ONS

12. Methodology Group • Aims: • to achieve integrated and coherent statistics across ONS • to facilitate sharing of best practice • To achieve these: • work closely with business areas to achieve best use of appropriate methods, etc. • provide expertise, guidance, advice

13. Sample design and estimation Data collection Editing and imputation Analysis methods Time series analysis Index numbers Spatial analysis and modelling Statistical Disclosure control Quality measurement Metadata Methodology Group

14. My Experiences • Project work • Vacancies Survey • Register Dynamics • Retail Sales Inquiry • New Earnings Survey • Investigation of bias from small business guarantees • Produce and present reports

15. New Earnings Survey Redesign • Survey of earnings, hours, pension arrangements • Currently a 1% sample of NI numbers in PAYE schemes • From 2004 survey will • be stratified • include non-PAYE jobs (low pay) • have results weighted • include standard errors for all estimates

16. NES Redesign - Sample Design • Find which variables are best correlated with earnings • Propose to stratify by occupation, sex, ageband, workplace region • Relies on previous data for some information • Post-stratify for calculation of results

17. NES Redesign - Estimation • Estimates will be weighted to account for non-response - design weights: ai = Nh(s) / nh(s) • Calibrate using LFS employee totals - calibration weights: gi = Nh(ps) / Sj in h(ps) aj • Weighted estimate of mean: mean(y) =Ss aj gj yj /Ss aj gj

18. NES Redesign - Standard Errors • Aim to publish standard errors with all estimates • New methodology to estimate standard errors of weighted quantiles (based on estimation of the density) • Software: • Generalised Estimation System (GES) and SAS

19. Summarising Thoughts • Interesting job, with many aspects, and good potential • Project work - many parallels to academic research, though on a shorter timescale • Experience from academic research very useful for MG work - e.g. report writing, working to deadlines • Lots of training: SAS, sampling, Consultancy Skills, etc. • Practical use of work done

20. What’s available?

21. Posts in ONS Methodology Group Newport London Titchfield Positions are also available in other parts of ONS

22. Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS) • Senior Methodologist • Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 4 years relevant experience in research and statistics • Methodologist • Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 2 years relevant experience in research and statistics

23. Posts in ONS Methodology Group(apply direct to ONS) • Assistant Methodologist • Qualifications: min. 2(i) in statistics, maths, social science that includes substantial statistics. Higher degree desirable • Progression to Methodologist after 2 years • For methodology posts, apply directly to MG in ONS via the continuous recruitment programme • Statistical Officer • Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline • Application deadline (Newport): Spring 2003, dates TBC

24. Posts in ONS(apply through CSSB) • Civil Service Selection Board (CSSB) • 1.5 day assessment centre (held in London) • Next closing date: 2 May 2003 for interviews 11-12 and 18-19 June • Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) • accelerated promotion to (branch head within six years?) • Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline • Can apply when in-post already • Statistical Officer also available

25. Salaries • Divisional Director £££s • Principal Methodologist / Statistician £34k - £48k (Branch head) Starting Salaries: • Senior Methodologist £26.1k • Methodologist £21.4k • Assistant Methodologist £18.7k • Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream) £21.1k • Statistical Officer £16.5k

26. Other benefits • Pension (final salary scheme) • Annual leave (25 days after first year) • Flexible working hours • Diversity of opportunities • Training (e.g. MSc in Official Statistics - includes survey design, sampling, index numbers, estimation, regression, data analysis, etc.) • Shop, restaurant, gym • Sports and social activities • Travel and leisure discounts

27. What to do if you’re interested • Sponsors’ reception: come and talk to us! Gareth.James@ons.gov.uk, Lynne.Henderson@ons.gov.uk • Take away our flyers • Leave your contact details for more information • E-mail for application forms (addresses on next slide) • Job advertisements appear in regional and national press

28. Contacts • (Assistant) Methodologist continuous recruitment: • London.Recruitment@ons.gov.uk (for MG at any site) • Other site recruitment: • Newport.Recruitment@ons.gov.uk • Titchfield.Recruitment@ons.gov.uk Websites: www.statistics.gov.uk/recruitment/ www.faststream.gov.uk