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Demographic challenge of Russia

Demographic challenge of Russia. Government response. Plummeting population. Rate of natural growth. “Maternal capital” policy. $10,000 for every other born or adopted child, except the firstborn (first adopted) Announced May 2006. Effective 2007-2016 “Maternal capital” can be used:

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Demographic challenge of Russia

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  1. Demographic challenge of Russia Government response

  2. Plummeting population

  3. Rate of natural growth

  4. “Maternal capital” policy • $10,000 for every other born or adopted child, except the firstborn (first adopted) • Announced May 2006. Effective 2007-2016 • “Maternal capital” can be used: • To improve housing conditions • To improve education level (i.e. to get higher education) • To increase the mother’s pension fund

  5. Siberian state

  6. Moscow

  7. Models fixed effects model • Ystateyear = β0+ βpensionXpensionstate+ βhousingXhousingstate + βavsalaryXavsalarystate + βunemploymentXunemploymentstate + βyear + ustateyear

  8. Fixed effects model • birthrate | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] • -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- • sq m o/c | -5.737728 .268442 -21.37 0.000 -6.264812 -5.210645 • pension | .0018929 .0040903 0.46 0.644 -.0061384 .0099242 • av sal p/c | .0026523 .0008879 2.99 0.003 .0009089 .0043957 • 2000 | -12.68872 6.37999 -1.99 0.047 -25.21576 -.1616748 • 2001 | -8.482731 5.550366 -1.53 0.127 -19.38082 2.415357 • 2002 | -2.025524 4.668346 -0.43 0.665 -11.19177 7.140725 • 2003 | 1.766027 4.047924 0.44 0.663 -6.18203 9.714084 • 2004 | 3.245498 3.486977 0.93 0.352 -3.601147 10.09214 • 2005 | -.6859826 2.826695 -0.24 0.808 -6.236169 4.864204 • 2007 | 6.447197 3.673453 1.76 0.080 -.7655904 13.65998

  9. Conclusions • Some of the government policy targeted objectives appear to be positively related to the birthrate, but others are related negatively • Hard to dissect the effects of increasing incomes and the new government policy • The overall effect of targeted policy objectives on birthrate appears to be small

  10. Ideal dataset • Control and experimental group of homogeneous states • All possible variables, such as poverty level, culture, religion, etc. • Longer period of observation

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