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The demographic challenge - A regional introduction -

The demographic challenge - A regional introduction -. demography= the science of a populations distribution, size and composition. Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009. Västerbotten 2030- a population prognosis. The county´s population continues to grow, but growth will vary:.

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The demographic challenge - A regional introduction -

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  1. The demographic challenge - A regional introduction - demography= the science of a populations distribution, size and composition Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  2. Västerbotten 2030- a population prognosis The county´s population continues to grow, but growth will vary: • between towns and municipalities • between women and men • between immigrants and Swedish-born • between younger and older

  3. Change in population 2008-2030 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  4. Change in population 2008-2030 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  5. Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes

  6. Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  7. Population in Västerbotten distributed in one-year classes 0-2 year -527 3-12 year 2 964 13-35 year -7 528 36-41 year 1 418 42-63 year -5 642 64+ year 15 638 Total 6 324 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  8. Population development in Västerbotten 1970-2030, divided by age group and year Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  9. Number of people in working age per pensioner 1970 2030 Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  10. Dependency ratio decreases Dependency ratio increases Dependency ratio = the ratio between the number of children, adolescents and older relative to the population of working age 20-64 year 0-19 year, 65 + year 1970/233 133/58,1 procent 2008/257 812/58,5 procent 2030/264 136/54,1 procent Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  11. The proportion of young and old in relation to people in economically active ages(20-64 year) Dependency ratio in the county of Västerbotten Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  12. The dependency ratio varies between the municipalities Dependency ratio (the ratio between the number of children, adolescents and older relative to the population of working age) Year 1970 Year 2008 Year 2030 Per 100 persons Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  13. Who will take over the companies when the baby-boomer generation (born in the forties)has retired? More than one in three workers is older than 55 years. The current report shows that thousands of businesses are at risk when nearly half of all small business owners say that a generation or ownership issue within ten years When the economy turns, will labour shortages hinder the company’sgrowth opportunities? In the small business survey, which is published twice a year, companies respond on the issue of the single biggest growth obstacle - demand, employment law, finance, would not grow, etc.. Who is going to do the job when the need for care and welfare increase dramatically? Current population prognosis of the county shows thas the number of people in age 80 or older will dubble until the year of 2030. At the same time the number o people in working age will decrease. Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

  14. To meet the demographic challenge requires a combination of measures! • Higher labor productivity • Increased proportion of the population fo working age in work • Longer working lives • More people of working age • Attractive workplaces, habitats and creative individuals Patrik Sällström, hösten 2009

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