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COPING WITH THE 21 ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS . 

COPING WITH THE 21 ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS . . Chris Pollock Aberystwyth University. CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL. Models suggest that climate change effects on yield are positive or neutral at high latitudes, but negative at low latitudes. THE MULTIPLIERS.

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COPING WITH THE 21 ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS . 

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  1. COPING WITH THE 21ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS.  Chris PollockAberystwyth University

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL

  3. Models suggest that climate change effects on yield are positive or neutral at high latitudes, but negative at low latitudes

  4. THE MULTIPLIERS Growing competition for water Increasing population Increasing demand for animal products Increasing competition for land Increasing fragility of key ecosystems How will these interact with the direct effects to influence global supply networks?

  5. Projections of water use and actual global water withdrawals SCIENCE VOL 302 28 NOVEMBER 2003

  6. Small-scale Mixed farming Large-scale Specialist farming Changes in biodiversity attributable to the development of agriculture Natural and semi-natural populations Biodiversity “Unplanned” populations (weeds etc) “Planned” populations (crops etc) 10,000BC Today 1900 AD Redrawn from Edwards & Hilbeck, 2001

  7. POTENTIAL RISKS Rising Prices (*) Increased price volatility (**) Reduced security of supply (***) Possible safety implications (****) Reduction in consumer choice (????) Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)

  8. SUSTAINABLE LAND USE: Facilitates the long-term generation of economic or societal benefits with minimal impact on the environment and in a way that supports the rural economy

  9. The essential dilemma. Can we farm sustainably and feed everyone?

  10. THE INDUSTRY MUST RESPOND • UK Climate Change Bill published • All sectors expected to develop mitigation options • Land Use has particular challenges: • N2O and CH4 more significant than CO2 • Very complex interactions determine scale of emissions • Limited mitigation options

  11. THERE ARE LOW-HANGING FRUIT These can also reduce enterprise costs Reduce direct CO2 emissions (1-2%) Reduce CH4 emissions by maximising conversion efficiency and by good slurry management (5-10%) Reduce N2O emissions by improved input management (10-15%) Consider small-scale renewable energy

  12. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOODLAND • Renewable energy • Renewable building materials • Carbon sequestration • Habitat restoration and wildlife corridors • Water Management • Clean-up of diffuse pollution • Enhancement of landscape diversity

  13. THE BIG QUESTION Do we have the policy framework that will encourage sustainable land management in general and sustainable woodland development in particular?

  14. THREE EXAMPLES WHERE WE DO NOT • Compensation for income foregone does not value ecosystem services properly • Micro-CHP is not yet profitable because of power company rules • Residues from anaerobic digestion of municipal green waste cannot be applied to crops

  15. CONCLUSIONS • Climate change cannot be viewed in isolation • Other factors will also impact on UK land use • The industry will have to adapt • There are specific opportunities for woodland • Changes in policy and regulation are needed

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