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Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth

Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth. Ken Locey. http://tchester.org/srp/plants/communities/figures/global_biodiversity_by_area.gif. 183,913,348 records of birds in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. Macroecology. …study of ecological relationships

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Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth

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  1. Macroecology & uneven distributions of wealth Ken Locey

  2. http://tchester.org/srp/plants/communities/figures/global_biodiversity_by_area.gifhttp://tchester.org/srp/plants/communities/figures/global_biodiversity_by_area.gif

  3. 183,913,348 records of birds in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database

  4. Macroecology …study of ecological relationships that involves characterizing and explaining statistical patterns of… Abundance: ni/N Distribution: f(k;λ) =λke-λ/k! Diversity: H’ = -Σpi*ln(pi)

  5. Geographic range patterns Land mammals North-South (km) Land birds 100 1,000 10,000 East-West (km)

  6. Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) Ecological phenomenon ∝M3/4e-E/kt Temp. corrected max. rate of whole organism biomass production Slope = 0.76 R2 = 0.99

  7. Species Abundance Distribution (frequency distribution) frequency Abundance Class

  8. http://encyclopediaurantia.org/images/ROM11.JPG

  9. DATA

  10. Math & Stats GIS Metabolic rate ∝ M3/4e-E/kt Information: Tools Computing

  11. Sharing COLLABORATION & SHARING Code development Source networks

  12. Undergraduate &Graduate research Grad School Skills GIS Programming Published Research Data management Math & Stats Collaboration Jobs

  13. whitelab.weecology.org macroecology.ku.dk Center for Macroecology, Evolution, & Climate www.macroecology.ca

  14. Species Abundance Distribution (frequency distribution) frequency Abundance Class

  15. Species Abundance Distribution (Rank-abundance distribution) Abundance Rank in Abundance

  16. Wheat Production (tons) tons 62.9 104588178.7

  17. Poverty in Rural America, 2008 54.5 - 25 25 - 20 20 – 14.3 14.2 – 12.2 12.1 - 10 10 – 3.1 Percent in Poverty

  18. Distributions of Wealth (DOW) Supreme importance attaches to one economic problem, that of the distribution of wealth. Is there a natural law according to which the wealth of society is divided? – John Bates Clark Wealth: sources of human welfare which are material, transferable, and limited in quantity.

  19. Distributions of Wealth (DOW) Total quantity (Q) Community abundance Global Oil Consumption GDP, GNP Number of entities (N) Species Nations Economic classes

  20. Distributions of Wealth (DOW) If Q = 10 and N = 3, then: 8 unordered ways to sum N positive integers to obtain Q 8+1+1 7+2+1 6+3+1 6+2+2 5+4+1 5+3+2 4+4+2 4+3+3

  21. Dowe observe the average of possible DOWs?

  22. The feasible set(all possible shapes of the DOW) 16,958 shapes for Q = 50 & N = 10 • Wealth Rank

  23. Combinatorial Explosion

  24. Heat mapping the feasible set(or a random sample) Q=1,000 N=80 ln(wealth) Rank

  25. Heat mapping the feasible set(or a random sample) ca. 4.02x1029 possible shapes for N=1000 & S=80 ln(abundance) Rank in abundance

  26. Ecological DOWs(species-abundance distributions) • North American Breeding Bird Survey (1,583 sites) • Forest Inventory and Analysis (7,403 sites) • Mammal Community Database (42 sites) • North American Butterfly Association (306 sites) • Aquatic prokaryotes (92 metagenomes) • Arctic surface waters, Deep-sea Hydrothermal vents • Terrestrial prokaryotes (48 metagenomes) • Arctic soils, agricultural soils • Indoor fungi (124 metagenomes) • All continents except Antarctica Total: 9,598 different sites of diverse communities

  27. Ecological DOWs(species-abundance distributions) Q = Total community abundance (i.e. number of individuals) N = Species richness (i.e. number of species)

  28. OBSERVED: [1, 2, 10, 12, 20, 30, 40, 60, 110] PREDICTED: [1, 2, 11, 11, 22, 28, 43, 50, 117] 102 101 100 Observed wealth R2 = 0.99 R2 per site 100 101 102 Predicted wealth

  29. 102 101 100 Observed abundance R2 = 0.99 R2 = 0.89 R2 = 0.80 R2 = 0.75 R2 per site 100 101 102 Predicted abundance

  30. 102 101 100 Observed abundance R2 per site R2 = 0.99 R2 = 0.89 R2 = 0.80 R2 = 0.75 R2 per site 0.0 1.0 100 101 102 Predicted abundance

  31. R2 = 0.93 102 101 100 Observed abundance 0.0 1.0 R2 per site 100 101 102 Predicted abundance

  32. 1,583 sites in the Breeding Bird Survey R2 = 0.93 102 101 100 Observed abundance 0.0 1.0 R2 per site 100 101 102 Predicted abundance

  33. Count data 7,403 tree communities 42 mammal communities 306 butterfly communities R2 = 0.84 R2 = 0.78 R2 = 0.80 Observed abundance vs. Abundance at the center of the feasible set

  34. Metagenomes 48 terrestrial prokaryote 92 aquatic prokaryote 124 indoor fungi R2 = 0.83 R2 = 0.58 R2 = 0.76 Observed abundance vs. Abundance at the center of the feasible set

  35. Food & Agriculture Organization of the UN US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Admin.

  36. Food supply among nations (1960-2010) grams/capita/day tons * 0.0001 grams/capita/day * 0.1 0.83 0.91 0.93 Observed supply Predicted supply

  37. Population sizes among nations (1960-2009, millions of people) 0.69 0.77 0.91 Observed pop. size Predicted pop. size

  38. Oil use among nations (1980-2009, barrels per day * 0.01) 0.88 0.92 0.92 Observed Predicted

  39. 0.93 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 Observed home runs 0.94 0.93 (2002-2010) http://mlb.mlb.com Predicted home runs

  40. Are DOWs similar to the average of possible shapes? …very often Do Q and N constrain the DOW more than ever realized? …Yup Is the feasible set good for more than predictions?…Absolutely Is combinatorial explosion a pain in the *expletive*?…Not for long…?

  41. Funding • USU College of Science • Willard L. Eccles Fellowship • NSF CAREER award to Ethan White • Research grant from Amazon Web Services

  42. Acknowledgments • Individuals, agencies, organizations responsible for the collection and management of the: • Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Count, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Mammal Community Database, North American Butterfly Association, Argonne National Laboratory’s MG-RAST metagenomic server • Colleagues & Collaborators • USU: Ethan White, Xiao Xiao, Dan McGlinn • Berkeley Harte Lab: Justin Kitzes • SESYNC: Bill Burnside • UCO college of Math and Science

  43. The feasible set as a framework Understanding Comparing • Inequality

  44. Percentile of the feasible set Gini’s coefficient of inequality

  45. The feasible set(all possible values of species evenness) Total abundance, N = 60 Species evenness Species richness, S

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