Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty

1. Post Carbon Cities:Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel LerchProgram Manager

2. Post Carbon Institute • Global Public Media • Relocalization Network • Post Carbon Cities • Local Energy Farms Network • Oil Depletion Protocol

3. This Presentation This presentation... ENERGY CLIMATE 1. What’s happening? 2. What’s the problem? 3. What are cities already doing? 4. What’s the best course of action?

4. What’s happening? Demand is RISING... ...but Supply is LEVELLING, and may soon fall. • Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India) • Western world demand growth • The “easy oil” is gone • Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

5. What’s happening? The old assumptions no longer fit. 11 Sep 2007oil hits $80/barrel * 2007 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64

6. What’s happening? But fortunately, some see the problems ahead. “The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy resources are quickly drawing to a close.'' –US Army Corps of Engineers, “Energy trends and their implications for U.S. Army Installations,” Sept. 2005.

7. What’s happening? The oil problem in three points: 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. 4. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy.

8. What’s happening? Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production seems to have peaked May 2005.

9. What’s happening? 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Campbell, C. 2004.

10. What’s happening? 3. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy. • More oil coming from troubled parts of the world • More demand, esp. from developing countries

11. What’s happening? SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? * Oil prices depend on oil flows:major problems begin when flows can’t keep up with growing demand. “The all-important question is,how much oil can the industrypump every day...? That’s what the debate over Peak Oil is all about... When will the flow rate that the industry can possibly attain reach its maximum?” -- Richard Heinberg, “Open Letter to Greg Palast”, 6 July 2006.

12. What’s happening? SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? * Declining supply + rising demand= price volatility “...a shortfall of oil supplies caused by world conventional oil production peaking will sharply increase oil prices and oil price volatility... As oil peaking is approached, relatively minor events will likely have more pronounced impacts on oil prices and futures markets.” -- Hirsch, R., et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production.” Report for the U.S. Dep’t of Energy, Feb. 2005.

13. What’s the problem? THE BOTTOM LINE: Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

14. What’s the problem? Peak oil means both increased oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. Peak oil means both increased oil prices and volatility in supply and price. Why is this a problem for local governments?: • Over-dependence on oil • Short-term challenges • Long-term challenges

15. What’s the problem? Over-dependence Peak oil means both increased oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. Over-dependence on oil • Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the ...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. • Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. • Oil is a non-interchangeable input (short-term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal.

16. What’s the problem? Challenges Over-dependence Peak oil means increased oil prices andvolatility in both supply and price. Short-term challenges • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt) • Unexpected price changes in other products(push for ethanol = higher meat prices) • Occasional shortages(Hurricane Katrina and North Carolina)

17. What’s the problem? Challenges “Energy Uncertainty” Peak oil means increased oil prices and volatility in both supply and price. Long-term challenges • How will the global economy adjust? • How will this impact regional and local economies? • How can municipalities... • set meaningful budgets • make long-range land use and transportation plans • serve their citizens and the local business community ...with such uncertainty in the price of the most important material to the global economy?

18. What’s happening? Peak oil... when?

20. What’s happening? The global climate is being changed –but we don’t know exactly in what ways, and how quickly. GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. We don’t fully undestand the effects or the system. ! + ? • Prior and continuning industrialization. • 15 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it. • Trigger points? Feedback loops? • Local effects? Economic effects?

21. What’s happening? [ The debate is over. ] “Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.”

22. What’s happening? [ The debate is over. ]

23. What’s happening? [ The Global Warming Problem in Two Points. ] 1. We know that some effects of global warming are inevitable in the short-term.(and they’re generally not good) 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long run. (tipping points? feedback loops?) ! + ?

24. What’s the problem? “Climate Uncertainty” [ Why is this a problem for local governments? ] • Dependence: • Ecosystem services. • Economy and society are subsets of the environment. • Short-term challenges: • Mitigation: Stop making it worse! • Adaptation: Deal with first effects. • Long-term challenges: • Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? • Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy?

25. What’s the problem? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” GLOBAL WARMING PEAK OIL WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHAT’S THE ISSUE? • Dependence: • Ecosystem services. • Economy and society are subsets of the environment. 1. Oil prices depend on oil flows. 2. Oil is more difficult to produce. 3. Oil supply is less stable. 4. OPEC can’t make up the slack anymore. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. • Short-term challenges: • Mitigation: Stop making it worse! • Adaptation: Deal with first effects. WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? • Overdependence on oil • Dependence on global ecosystem • Short-term challenges(unexpected price changes, occasional shortages) • Short-term challenges(dealing with first effects) • Long-term challenges: • Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? • Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy? • Long-term challenges(how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?) • Long-term challenges(long-term changes to climates and economies) “Energy and Climate Uncertainty”

26. What can be done about it? What can be done? “Timely, aggressive mitigation initiativesaddressing both the supply and the demand sides of the issue will be required...” “Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort...” “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.” - Hirsch, Robert. et al. “PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT”. Report for the U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005. (emphasis added) We need government mitigation initiatives that address energy supply and demand.

27. What are cities already doing?

28. What are cities already doing? As of August 2007,over 600 mayors --from all 50 states– have signed.

29. What are cities already doing?

30. What are other cities already doing? Resolution which creates... ...a Task Force. Portland, Ore. Oakland, Calif. Bloomington, Indiana San Francisco, Calif. Austin, Tex. Portland, Ore. (completed May 2007) Oakland, Calif. (finishing October 2007) San Francisco, Calif. (assembling Sept. 2007)

31. What are cities already doing? Internal Report Public Report Burnaby, B.C. (January 2006) Portland, Ore. regional gov’t (April 2006) Hamilton, Ont. (February 2006) Sebastopol, Calif. (April 2007) Portland, Ore. (May 2007)

32. Portland Peak Oil Task Force Excerpted from “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; available online at http://www.portlandonline.com/osd. 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2. Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. 3. Engage business, government and community leaders to initiate planning and policy change. Reduceoil & NG consumption Provide leadership View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

33. Portland Peak Oil Task Force 4. Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide easy access to services and transportation options. 5. Design infrastructure to promote transportation optionsand facilitate efficient movement of freight... 6. Encourage energy-efficient and renewable transportation choices. 7. Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentivesfor all new and existing structures. Land use & transporta-tion Efficiency, conservation View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

34. Portland Peak Oil Task Force 8. Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities. 10. Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11. Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Economic development Support system Emergency planning View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

35. Post Carbon Cities guidebook • Written specifically for local government officials and staff. • Describes the facts and issues surrounding “peak energy” • Describes the challenges cities face in energy and climate uncertainty. • Reviews experiences of early-actor cities. • Recommendations for short-term and long-term actions. • Sample resolutions; guide to establishing a task force. Free preview, ordering at www.postcarboncities.net.

36. Post Carbon Cities guidebook The “Four Initial Steps” Step 1. Sign the (Seattle) U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Step 2. Join the ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection Campaign. Step 3. Sign the Oil Depletion Protocol. Step 4. Establish a Peak Oil Task Force.

37. Post Carbon Cities guidebook • The “Five Long-term Principles” • Deal with transportation and land use(or you may as well stop now). • Tackle private energy consumption. • Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from multiple angles. • Plan for fundamental changes...and make fundamental changes happen. • Build a stronger sense of community.

38. Post Carbon Cities guidebook • Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

39. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 2. Tackle private energy consumption.

40. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3. Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

41. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3. Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

42. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 4. Plan for fundamental changes... andmake fundamental changes happen.

43. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5. Build a sense of community.

44. Post Carbon Cities guidebook

45. Post Carbon Institute www.postcarbon.org Post Carbon Cities book and program www.postcarboncities.net Daniel Lerch, Program Manager 971-207-6334daniel@postcarbon.org