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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008. AES-meeting 2009-05-06 Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency jonas.paulsson@energimyndigheten.se. Presentation. Method Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008 Development. Long-term energy forecast - in general.
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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008 AES-meeting 2009-05-06 Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency jonas.paulsson@energimyndigheten.se
Presentation • Method • Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008 • Development
Long-term energy forecast - in general • The main aim of the forecast is to analyse the future energy consumption based on the current means and other given assumptions • The projection period is 10-25 years • Collaborations are carried out with other authorities and economic operators • The forecast is used as a base for the emissions projections to EU (EU-directive 280/2004) • It is also used as a base for decisions-making (such as energy and climate policies)
Method Important assumptions • Fossil fuel prices are based on IEA’s future projections • The macro-economic development is based on data and calculations from the National Institute of Economic Research (EMEC) • The electricity prices are based on calculations carried out by the MARKAL-NORDIC model • CO2 prices in the EU-ETS are based on the fuel switching cost calculations (natural gas and coal)
Method continues... The future energy needs/demands are: • based on separate energy forecasts in the following sectors: • Transports • Industry • Households and services • Agriculture, fishing and forestry • This information is used as input in the Markal-Nordic model
Future energy consumption • Energy consumption increases during the forecast period • The increase takes place mainly in transports- and industry sectors • Energy consumption in households- and in services sector decreases
Energy consumption - domestic transports • In general, the energy consumption increases in the transport sector. In addition, the following trends could be observed: • Increase in diesel consumption and decrease in gasoline consumption • Increased number of gasoline-electricity hybrid vehicles and flexifuel vehicles • An assumption about continuous exemption from tax on biofuels leads to increased biofuel consumption, about 11 TWh 2020
Energy consumption - industry • Energy consumption increases as an effect of higher industrial production • Consumption of electricity increases 3 TWh and biomass 4 TWh to 2030 • Use of oil decreases whereas coal and natural gas increases • Use of energy in relation to value added decreases
Energy consumption - households and services etc. • Energy use decreases mainly due to conversions and energy efficiency measures • Use of oil in the household sector is supposed to be 0 TWh in 2020 • Electricity consumption for heating purposes decreases • Use of electricity (excl. for heating purposes) will be stabilized at the level of 21 TWh in 2015 due to efficiency measures
Electricity production and trade • Hydro power and nuclear power increase due to higher capacity • Combined heat and power (CHP) in industry increases due to the green certificate system and high electricity prices • Combined heat and power (CHP) in district heating systems increases due to the green certificate system, high electricity prices and expansion of waste heat, and in the short-term even due to growth of gas heat • The green certificate system and high electricity prices explain the increase of wind power production • A moderate increase in the domestic energy consumption combined with increased electricity production result in high export of electricity in 2020.
Biomass excl. waste • The use of biomass strongly increases to 2020 mainly due to: • high fossil fuel prices • continuing exemption from tax for biofuels and the green certificate system
Share energy from renewable sources according to the renewable energy directive, 2020 • The share of renewable energy in the reference scenario is close to the target (49%) • There are several uncertainties: • Future energy prices • Industrial production • Use of biofuels • Heat pumps • Sustainability criteria
Long-term forecasts - development Growing demands: • Consequence analyses • Basis for actions plans • Energy use forecasts • Renewable energy • Energy efficiency • Heat pumps
Long-term forecasts - development Growing demands require: - Improved energy statistics - Improved energy forecasts models - Based on correct explaining factors - More transparent - Less time-consuming