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WP 8 Scenarios

What is needed for planning is not a set of isolated trends, but multidimensional models that interrelate social, political, even cultural, along with the economics ( Tofler :, 1985). WP 8 Scenarios. The conceptual framework. The system approach to the project.

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WP 8 Scenarios

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  1. What is needed for planning is not a set of isolated trends, but multidimensional models that interrelate social, political, even cultural, along with the economics (Tofler:, 1985). WP 8 Scenarios The conceptual framework

  2. Thesystemapproachtotheproject • The project has to be understood as a system in which the nine work packages are like subsystems which alone they do not mean so much, but in relation to each other they have explanatory power. In sum, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Thus, workpackages 8 and 9 have to be built based on the others.

  3. Scenarios • Scenarios appear to be an attractive methodology to increase disciplinary integration and stakeholder participation, as they may facilitate an integrated discussion about river basin and national park management. • Utilizing past and present trends, scenarios attempt to see which factors might lead to likely futures.

  4. Scenarios • Scenarios explore the space for human actions and interventions to shape the future • Scenarios provide options rather than predictions • Scenarios provide guidance to all actors and reduce uncertainty

  5. Buildingscenarios • The scenarios have in common for their development : • The (independent) variables (current trends) • In relation to the IV…the Main drivers (intervening variables) • Livelihood and biodiversity (dependent variable) as an outcome in one given scenario.

  6. Mainelementsforbuildingscenarios

  7. Forourwork…

  8. TYPE OF SCENARIOS

  9. Methodological tools • Using focus group in scenario building

  10. The result… • Link to WP9… what kind of policy needs to be formulate in order to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptation

  11. Framework Expected vulnerability/or adaptation of people and ecosystems to these changes in one given scenario

  12. Reference • Gooch, G. 2006. How to improve informed public participation in river basin management. http://www.aquanet.eu/downloads/faroaquanet/goochparticipationwfd.pdf. • Gooch, G. 2006. Qualitative scenarios. Charter 4. In Integrated Transboundary Water Management in Theory and Practice.

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