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Synthetic Solar System Model (S3M)

Synthetic Solar System Model (S3M). MOPS Workshop Tucson, March 11th 2008 Tommy Grav. Contributors. Tommy Grav Robert Jedicke Steve Chesley Matthew Holman Tim Spahr Larry Denneau. What is S3M?. Tool to help: Test the MOPS pipeline Can we detect, link and track all types of objects?

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Synthetic Solar System Model (S3M)

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  1. Synthetic Solar System Model(S3M) MOPS Workshop Tucson, March 11th 2008 Tommy Grav

  2. Contributors • Tommy Grav • Robert Jedicke • Steve Chesley • Matthew Holman • Tim Spahr • Larry Denneau

  3. What is S3M? • Tool to help: • Test the MOPS pipeline • Can we detect, link and track all types of objects? • Even the special types, like interstellar comets • Can we handle the density of objects expected? • Provide efficiency determination of system • Compare PS1/PS4/LSST results to “theory”

  4. S3M Requirements • De-biased populations • Up to date models if available • Appropriate densities • Complete to V~24.5

  5. Where does S3M fit in? S3M Field Detections Processing

  6. Inner Solar System

  7. Inner Solar System • Near Earth Objects • Includes Inner Earth Objects • Earth Impactors • Main Belt Asteroids • Jovian Trojans • Short Period Comets

  8. Outer Solar System

  9. Outer Solar System • Centaurs • Trans-Neptunian Objects • Classical Kuiper Belt • Resonant population, incl neptunian trojans • Scattered Disk Objects • Long Period Comet • Interstellar comets

  10. What is the S3M? • ~11,000,000 objects with: • Orbital elements • Perihelion distance • Eccentricity • Inclination • Argument of perihelion • Longitude of ascending node • Time of perihelion passage • Absolute magnitude • Each population is built using its own set of assumptions and techniques

  11. Near-Earth Objects

  12. Near-Earth Objects • Model based on Bottke et al. (2002) • Time-residence model

  13. Earth Impactors • Made by S. Chesley • Subset of the NEOs • 10M NEOs ->10006 obj • Impact from 2010-2100 • Twice per week

  14. Earth Impactors

  15. Main Belt Asteroids Known Synthetic

  16. Main Belt Asteroids All Known Bright Known

  17. Main Belt Asteroids • Want to retain the important features • Kirkwood gaps • Family structure • Known sample of MBAs is biased but bright portion (H < 14.5) is complete • Use bright sample to build our MBA model • Take known MBA shift (a,e,i), random angles • This “smears” out gaps and families • Hilda structure is lost

  18. Main Belt Asteroids

  19. Jovian Trojans

  20. Jovian Trojans • Based on SDSS data • Integrated clone orbits • Removed non-stable • Make sure objects are 1:1 resonant

  21. Jovian Trojans

  22. All planets 10000 Mercury Venus Earth Mars 20000 Saturn Uranus Neptune TNO model has some neptunian trojans Trojans of Other Planets

  23. Centaurs

  24. Centuars • Based on • Jedicke et al (1997) • Duncan et al (1995) • Time residence model

  25. Trans-Neptunian Objects

  26. Trans-Neptunian Objects • Based on Nice Model • Morbidelli & Levison • Integration of orbits • Picking clone orbits • Divide population into 3 sub-populations • Classical Kuiper belt objects • Resonant Kuiper belt objects • From the 1:1 to the 3:1 mean motion resonance • Scattered disk objects • Average a > 48AU

  27. Trans-Neptunian Objects

  28. Scattered Disk Objects • Average a > 48AU • Does not include Sedna-like objects

  29. Scattered Disk Objects

  30. Long Period Comets • Based on Franics (2005) • LINEAR data • Close to parabolic • a > 1000AU • Inclination isotropic

  31. Interstellar comets • Eccentricity > 1 • Isotropic inclination • Use no known to determine upper limit density

  32. Grid Population • Provide the possible unknown populations • Distant circular objects • Retrograde objects • High inclination objects • Test limits of pipeline

  33. Grid Population • Random positions and velocities • Inside a sphere of 5000AU • Eccentricities e < 1. • Absolute magnitude to ensure observability • In progress

  34. S3M Summary

  35. Current Shortcomings • Somewhat MOPS specific • Easily corrected • Missing populations • Short period comets (JFCs and HFC) • Work underway by Grav & Spahr • Distant TNOs • No physical properties beyond H • Some models might need updating

  36. Improvement Priorities • Short period comets • Un-MOPSing the models • Adding properties to calculate thermal flux • Means addition of some software to the model • Extending to fainter apparent magnitude • Adding phase integral values • Adding spectral gradient for color variations • Updating population models

  37. Future of S3M • LSST • WISE tests of MOPS • Asteroid contamination of space missions • Other surveys (both planning/operations)

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