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Contextual Value Added and Data For Dummies

Contextual Value Added and Data For Dummies. The mystery explained. Objectives – to understand. Contextual Value added – how it is calculated and factors which affect it. Performance descriptors “good”, “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory”. How Ofsted form judgements on performance data.

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Contextual Value Added and Data For Dummies

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  1. Contextual Value Added and Data For Dummies The mystery explained

  2. Objectives – to understand • Contextual Value added – how it is calculated and factors which affect it. • Performance descriptors “good”, “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory”. • How Ofsted form judgements on performance data.

  3. Objectives – to understand • Key Lessons from data analysis – self evaluation • What are we going to do about it? • Links with Performance Management and improvement plans (school and subject)

  4. School Context

  5. School Context

  6. School Context

  7. School Context

  8. School Context

  9. School Context

  10. School Context “bulge” of average students

  11. School Context “top slicing” of most able students

  12. Value Added • Value added is a prediction based on prior attainment (in SATs (standard assessment tests) at the end of primary school (key stage 2 or KS2) • How does progress compare with the average progress made by students with the same prior attainment

  13. Value Added - Definitions • Attainment, progress and achievement • Attainment – outcomes at KS4 (age 16) compared with the national averages • Achievement – how well a student does compared with his or her starting point • Progress – complicated but is a mix of achievement and attainment – a student can achieve well but make limited progress towards national attainment levels (Ofsted are more interested in progress)

  14. Contextual Value Added Student Characteristics Student Outcomes at Age 16 (end of KS4) School Characteristics Prior attainment

  15. Socioeconomic and Demographic – some factors included in CVA • Ethnicity – Gender – Age within year group • Special Educational Needs – in care – mobility • Deprivation indicator – free school meals • English as second language • Prior attainment (in English and Mathematics)

  16. Expected Progress - Satisfactory

  17. Progress – Value Added

  18. Progress – Value Added “measure of value added”

  19. Progress – Less than Predicted “measure of under performance”

  20. Progress – Broadly Average Range

  21. Progress - 2008

  22. Progress - 2008 Seriously underachieving students

  23. Progress - 2008 Above line is positive value

  24. Progress – Broadly Average Range The middle 50% of children nationally fall into this range

  25. Progress – “Good” Value Added

  26. Progress – “Good” Value Added Progress made by children in top 25% nationally

  27. Progress – “Unsatisfactory” Value Added Poor progress made by children in bottom 25% nationally

  28. Secondary Schools – relative performance

  29. Secondary Schools – relative performance Each 1% strip contains about 33 schools

  30. Secondary Schools – relative performance “Median” position – comparing all schools by progress and achievement

  31. Secondary Schools – relative performance 50% (percentile) is given a CVA score of 1000

  32. Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance”

  33. Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance” Moving towards the “good” schools

  34. Secondary Schools – middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average performance” Moving towards the “unsatisfactory” schools

  35. Secondary Schools – relative performance Above 25% are the “good” schools

  36. Secondary Schools – relative performance Top end – the “outstanding” schools

  37. Secondary Schools – relative performance Below 25% are the “unsatisfactory” schools

  38. Secondary Schools – relative performance Bottom “very weak” schools – possible “special measures”

  39. Secondary Schools – relative performance 1025 1005 995 980

  40. Conversion of Grades to Points for Calculations

  41. Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

  42. Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009 8% more students got A-A* than expected – value added but not significant (top end of satisfactory) 58% predicted to get A-C, 76% achieved = significant value added = “good”

  43. Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

  44. CVA – Individual Students • This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade C • Total points score = 320 • This is the FFT B (median) predictions • He gets 320 points • This student achieves 0 value added points.

  45. CVA – Individual Students • This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade B from prior attainment. • Total points score = 384 • This is the FFT B (median) predictions • She gets 394 points • What is her value added score?

  46. CVA – Individual Students • She is a girl and she gets free school meals (FSM) • Prediction from prior attainment = 384 points • Add 14 points (female) = 398 • Subtract 22 points for FSM • Total prediction = 376 • Value added = 18 points

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