Climate Change teasing it apart

1. Conservation Coaches Network New Coach Training Climate Changeteasing it apart

2. Key Points to Introduce this Step Operational Planning • Basic understanding of climate change & climate adaptation is a prerequisite • Climate change is a difficult subject fraught with subtleties & uncertainty • Most believe climate should be fully integrated from the beginning • Critical to deconstruct the elements and associated impacts of climate change

3. Critical Questions to Ask the Team Operational Planning • What is the team’s level of understanding about climate change and climate adaptation? • What existing work has been done for the area/region for climate change vulnerability? • What expertise is available to assist the team? • Are human impacts and associated responses understood? • Are all the levels of uncertainty considered?

4. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: The team is not well informed about climate change & climate adaptation • Some basic education is needed. Get an expert who is used to working with non-experts to provide a day of education.

5. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: This is the team’s first exposure to the Open Standards • John’s personal recommendation is not to fully address climate change in the first pass of the planning • Follow up with a more adequate treatment once the team is comfortable with all of the concepts

6. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: My team already has a strategic plan • This is actually the most common situation – guidance has been developed for this situation, and it not a problem to retrofit.

7. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning • 1. Gather Existing Climate Data and Reports • 2. Review Stakeholders • 3. Vulnerability Assessment • A. Examine Vulnerability to Current Climate Extremes • B. Consider the Range of Future Climate Projections • C. Assess Ecological Impacts of Climate Projections • D. Considering Future Projections, What are likely Human Responses & Associated Ecological Impacts • E. Capture Most Certain and Most Critical Potential Impacts as “Hypotheses of Change” • F. Capture All Projected Future Climate Impacts in Box & Arrow Conceptual Model(s) • G. Re-Rank Direct Threats • 4. Review Targets and Goals • 5. Identify potential climate adaptation strategies based on new conceptual model • 6. Rank strategies by feasibility, cost, benefit, and robustness to different future climate • 7. Develop detailed logic chains for climate adaptation strategies Issue: How to include Climate into existing plan?

8. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: We have a vulnerability assessment, but it is so general • Plug the existing vulnerability information into the Open Standards process, using conservation targets – this will probably raise a number of unanswered questions for more specific and targeted further research/monitoring.

9. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: The actual “threat” is excess CO2 emissions, but there isn’t much the team can do about that… • While not technically correct, we currently recommend treating the various elements of climate change (sea level rise, elevated air & ocean temps, more frequent & severe storms, etc.) as threats for planning purposes. That allows ranking vs. other threats, understanding the synergies between climate and other threats.

10. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: It might be that human reaction to climate change is worse than the changes themselves • Human efforts to reinforce riverbanks, shorelines, impound water, etc. may often be worse than if the ecosystem was left to adjust naturally. Thus, it is absolutely critical to understand how human systems (social, infrastructure, etc.) will be affected so that the team can start to understand the full range of threats to natural systems.

11. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: The climate projections for our area are all over the map – they don’t agree. • It’s important to know that, just as it’s also important to know if they do agree. If they do agree, then there is a bit less uncertainty. • Focus on agreement/lack of agreement, and trends.

12. Common Issues & Recommendations Operational Planning Issue: Should we design strategies to address catastrophic impacts that have an uncertain probability of occurring? • At this point, it’s probably worth discussing these and even brainstorming strategies. But we don’t suggest putting too much effort into detailing out such strategies until we know more. • Focus on strategies that reduce uncertainty (ecological research & monitoring, climate monitoring) or “no regrets” strategies (providing additional protection to reefs that seem resistant to coral bleaching).

13. Helpful Hints Operational Planning • Consider having a climate adaptation expert on their team – or at least have access to one. • Due to the uncertainty, and in order to influence development paths, it may be helpful to develop more than one scenario – climate scenarios, development scenarios. • Try to get the team to understand how their conservation targets are already vulnerable to climate – these same themes (temperatures, disturbances) are likely to be more variable in future climates. • Given the uncertainties, encourage your team to take climate projections with a grain of salt.

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