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Fifty Shades Of Growth What Form Will The Post-Crisis Economy Take? BKR International Worldwide Meeting 2013 21 October

Fifty Shades Of Growth What Form Will The Post-Crisis Economy Take? BKR International Worldwide Meeting 2013 21 October 2013. Austin Hughes Chief Economist KBC Bank Ireland. Things You Already Knew About Economics. It’s called ‘the dismal science’ for a reason.

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Fifty Shades Of Growth What Form Will The Post-Crisis Economy Take? BKR International Worldwide Meeting 2013 21 October

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  1. Fifty Shades Of GrowthWhat Form Will The Post-Crisis Economy Take?BKR InternationalWorldwide Meeting 201321 October 2013 Austin Hughes Chief Economist KBC Bank Ireland

  2. Things You Already Knew About Economics • It’s called ‘the dismal science’ for a reason

  3. Things You Already Knew About Economics • It’s called ‘the dismal science’ for a reason • The two-handed economist isn’t a myth

  4. Things You Already Knew About Economics • It’s called ‘the dismal science’ for a reason • The two-handed economist isn’t a myth • In the long run we’re all….

  5. Are You An Optimist Or A Pessimist?

  6. Tomorrow will be great, good ,ok, not too bad

  7. How Much Permanent Damage?

  8. First, Let’s Reach Escape Velocity

  9. Risks Slightly Lower

  10. Jobs The Key Focus

  11. Fault Lines Exposed

  12. Non Union?

  13. In Alan, Jean Claude And Mervyn We Trust(ed)

  14. Not Fed UpYet

  15. Central Banks Now Promise ‘An Extended Period’ Of Easy Money

  16. How Long Will It Take?

  17. Few Inflation Fears In The ‘States

  18. Or In The Euro Area

  19. Or Even In The UK

  20. Will Inflation Or Deflation Be A Bigger Problem

  21. Deflation Seen As Potentially More Of A Threat..At Least For Some

  22. Unless You’re Talking About Asset Prices

  23. The Degree Of Adjustment Varies Widely

  24. Different Tales

  25. And In The Long Run….

  26. Debt And Taxes Certain To Pose Problems

  27. The Only Way Is Down?

  28. Not Much Has Changed? [S]ome knowledgeable observers have recently made the case that the IT revolution, as important as it surely is, likely will not generate the transformative economic effects that flowed from the earlier technological revolutions. As a result, these observers argue, economic growth and change in coming decades likely will be noticeably slower. Fifty years ago, in 1963, I was a nine-year-old…it's interesting to ask how my family's everyday life back then differed from that of a typical family today. Well, if I think about it, I could quickly come up with the Internet, cellphones, and microwave ovens as important conveniences. [I]t doesn't seem to me that the differences in daily life between then and now are all that large. Heating, air conditioning, cooking, and sanitation in my childhood were not all that different from today. We had a dishwasher, a washing machine, and a dryer. My family owned a comfortable car with air conditioning and a radio, and the experience of commercial flight was much like today…The comparison of the world of 1963 with that of today suggests quite substantial but perhaps not transformative economic change since then.

  29. A New World ‘Order’?

  30. Getting Rich Isn’t Easy

  31. …..Or Achieved Too Often. Source: World Bank

  32. Latest Commodity Super-Cycle Over Its Peak Oil pricebroadly flat… (Barrel Brentoil) … whilegeneralcommoditypricesdeclining (Indices in USD, January 2000= 100) Source: Thomson Financial Datastream Source: Thomson Financial Datastream

  33. Resource Management Is Still Key

  34. People Are Resources Too

  35. Be Nice To Your Children

  36. Different Speeds Of Ageing

  37. What Countries Will Work?

  38. The Irish Economy Is Still In Transition

  39. A Nation Once Again

  40. The Long And Binding Road

  41. Some Signs Of Progress As Well As Pain

  42. Housing Market Bottoming Out

  43. A Recovery Won’t Be Credit Driven

  44. The Irish Economy By Age Cohort Ongoing ‘natural’ increase supports housing turnover longer term outlook as well as educational sector. Initial migration effects of downturn expected to be reversed by strong natural increase. Prime earnings/savings cohort expected to increase in coming years. Initial decline caused by emigration. Gradual recovery expected. Grey spending/saving power set to increase. Source: CSO

  45. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel?

  46. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel? • Out of intensive care- a still fragile economy

  47. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel? • Out of intensive care- a still fragile economy • What made the Great Depression Great?

  48. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel? • Out of intensive care- a still fragile economy • What made the Great Depression Great? • A new geography

  49. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel? • Out of intensive care- a still fragile economy • What made the Great Depression Great? • A new geography • What sort of ‘new ‘economy?

  50. Summary • Apocalypse averted-when’s the sequel? • Out of intensive care- a still fragile economy • What made the Great Depression Great? • A new geography • What sort of ‘new ‘economy? • Who will pick our care homes?

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