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Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression. PS 450. Election fraud. What treats are there to the integrity of US elections? Trying to “steel elections” Illegal cheating Who? How?. Public Perceptions. How common Voter Fraud Vote Theft Very 26% 23%

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Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

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  1. Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression PS 450

  2. Election fraud • What treats are there to the integrity of US elections? • Trying to “steel elections” • Illegal cheating • Who? • How?

  3. Public Perceptions • How common Voter Fraud Vote Theft Very 26% 23% Occasionally 36% 37% Infrequently 20% 21% Almost Never 8% 8% 2007 CCES

  4. Public Perceptions • How common voter fraud (vote more than once or if not citizen) Dem Rep Very 15% 35% Occasionally 36% 37% Infrequently 23% 21% Almost Never 13% 8% 2007 CCES

  5. Public Perceptions • How common vote theft (votes stolen or tampered with) Dem Rep Very 23% 20% Occasionally 38% 36% Infrequently 19% 25% Almost Never 9% 11% 2007 CCES

  6. Public Perceptions • How common vote impersonation (claiming to be someone else) Dem Rep Very Often 6% 11% Often 25% 42% Rarely 30% 23% Very Rare 21% 5% 2008

  7. Which are a ‘threat’? • Partisan Secretaries of State • Forged petition signatures (initiatives) • False voter registrations • Buying votes, bribing • Ineligible people casting votes • Intimidation of voters • Rigged voting equipment

  8. Forged petitions • Paid signature collection to qualify ballot initiatives • Some evidence of fraud (MT, DC) • Very little (if any) in WA • For-pay system has safeguards • Who more likely to cheat, paid workers or volunteers?

  9. Forged petitions • Creates demand for restrictions on petitioning • Is motive to kill initiatives? • Ban paying per-signature • ‘Scarlett Letter’ laws • Require petitioners register w/ state agency • Petitioners wear photo-ID • Petitioners swear affidavit on sig sheet • All sigs invalid if not signed?

  10. Partisan Secretaries of State • Scheduling initiative votes • Ruling on petitions • Overseeing recounts • Purging voter rolls • Challenging eligibility of voters • Locating polling places, staffing

  11. Partisan Secretaries of State • Examples • Katherine Harris, FL, 2000 • Purging FL voter rolls • Ken Blackwell, OH 2004 • Refusing to count provisional ballots, restrict distribution of ballots • Missouri, Matt Blunt 2004 • Anti-gay initiative

  12. Secretaries of State • Proposal • Have office listed as non-partisan • Public campaign funds for the office

  13. False Voter Registration • Made famous by ACORN • Workers paid per-registration • Does this create incentives to “register” Mickey Mouse, Homer Simpson? • What evidence that falsely registered people cast votes?

  14. False Voter Registration • Creates GOP demand for voter ID at polls • Photo ID • What % of voters lack photo ID • Utility bill • Huge partisan split in perceptions • DOJ challenging some ID laws in states covered by Voting Rights Act

  15. Ineligible people voting • Falsely registered • Ex-felons • Non-citizen immigrants • People voting in multiple jurisdictions • Voting other person’s mail-in ballots

  16. Ineligible people voting • GW Bush DOJ study found no systematic voter fraud (study killed)

  17. Partisan Split, Photo ID Texas, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote Republicans Yes 101 19 Democrats Yes 0 0 Republicans No 0 0 Democrats No48 11 Floor vote on SJR 14

  18. Partisan Split, Photo ID Montana, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote Republicans Yes 65 27 Democrats Yes 0 0 Republicans No 2 1 Democrats No 32 22 Floor vote on HB 152

  19. Partisan Split, Photo ID Maine, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote Republicans Yes 74 18 Democrats Yes 0 0 Others Yes 0 0 Republicans No 0 2 Democrats No 69 14 Others No 1 1 Floor vote on LD 1376

  20. Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana Drivers Lic DL or ID card White 81% 86% Black 55% 73%

  21. Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana White Black

  22. Photo ID Laws Income LT $40K $40k-$80K Over $80K

  23. Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana 18-34 35-54 55-69 70+

  24. Photo ID laws Republican Democrat Ind.

  25. Photo ID laws • Uneven effects • Modern Day poll tax?

  26. Voter Intimidation • At polling place • Anecdotes • Orange Co, CA • Scare off Latino voters • New Orleans 2002 • Spread false info about voting dates

  27. Vote Buying • Paying people to vote for a candidate • Isolated examples in small southern communities • DOJ prosecutes, convicts • Difficult to orchestrate in election with large # of voters

  28. Rigged Voting Equipment • Vote Theft • Diebold conspiracy • OH 2004 • Exit poll results vs. phone surveys vs.. reported vote • Can electronic systems be hacked • Ballots w/o “paper trail”

  29. Rigged Equipment • Difficulties • Decentralized administration (OH) • Rigorous audits

  30. Fraud, or suppression • Instances of systematic fraud affecting elections rare, if not existent • Anecdotes used by partisans to shape composition of the electorate in their favor

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