Vote Choice

1. Vote Choice GOVT 311 Lecture 8

2. Down’s theory of voting Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Right Left Voters Voters and Candidates are placed on a left-right ideological continuum

3. Voters Choose Nearest Candidate Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Right Left Voter chooses candidate 2

4. For the theory to work… • Voters must… • Know their own stands on issues • Must know the stands of the candidates • Must believe that the vote will affect government policy

5. Evidence that Down’s Theory Works • Voters tend to select candidate closest to them in presidential elections 1972-2004 (E & T p.292).

6. The Median Voter Theorem Both candidates make appeals to the middle (or median) voter in order to win the election. Explains why single member districts tend to produce two centrist political parties. Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Right Left

7. Problem with the MVT • Voters must link their stands, the candidates stands, and government policy • Candidates do not perfectly align in the center • They have ideology of their own • They are a part of a larger party organization • They must win primary elections • They must appease donors and volunteers • What happens when there are more than two candidates?

8. Do voters know the issues? • Remember the “Dirty Little Secret” of American politics. • Persons with high political knowledge are the most partisan and less likely to defect to the other party. • Persons with low political knowledge • Are more likely to be swayed by campaign message. • Partisan identifiers with low political knowledge more likely to defect (p.271)

9. Do voters know the candidates? • Most do, but only 74% of people could correctly identify Kerry was to the left of Bush. (E & T p.273) • Problem: Candidates often blur issue differences. For example, Gore proposed more defense spending than Bush, which explains why only 53% of people put him to the left of Bush on this issue.

10. Do Voters Choose Candidates on Policy Differences? • Yes, voters who were able to link their policy preferences to their 2004 presidential vote choice (E&T p.275). • This is also true when we use “scale” questions (E&T p.280).

11. Should uniformed voters be allowed to vote?

12. Easy vs. Hard Issues • Easy Issues: When the link between the individual and the policy is clear, such as group benefits like Affirmative Action. • Hard Issues: When voters much gain information. • Cues: Vote for candidate based on information correlated with policy, such as a candidate’s partisanship, their race and gender, and endorsements.

13. Do people vote for what is best for them? • Sociotropic voting – voting on issues that affect the national economy • Pocketbook voting – voting on issues that affect persons personal finances

14. Retrospective vs. Prospective Voting • Retrospective: using past performance to either punish or reward incumbents or their party. “Are you better off than four years ago?” • Prospective: decide what candidates will do (Downs theory) • Usually discussed in terms of the economy

15. Types of economic voting (Brewer)

16. It’s the economy, stupid! • 1992 – negative retrospective evaluation of Bush and economy • 1996 – positive retrospective evaluation of Clinton and the economy • 2000 – Should have been a positive retrospective evaluation of Gore and the economy(?) • 2004 – Positive retrospective evaluation of Bush and the economy(?) • 2008 – Negative retrospective evaluation of Bush (and by association Republican Party)(?)