A Scenario Game on the Future of African American Identity

1. A Scenario Game on the Future of African American Identity By Gerald Harris Author and Scenario Futurist www.artofquantumplanning.com gerald@artofquantumplanning.com August, 2010

2. Background The purpose of this short presentation is to create debate. I am purposefully being a little “over the top,” in the scenario descriptions to generate reactions, and not to offend any one, so keep this in mind as you read on. The scenarios map/matrix shown here is intended to present multiple possible future states which can be used like building blocks. Starting positions and movement through the scenario map is the essence of the game I am inviting you to play. More instructions are given at the end of this document. Have fun with these!

3. The Issue: Change • Human society is always evolving. I believe we are now as a species at a significant inflection point in our evolution. Some call it post-modernism, which I will not bother to try to define, as it seems to have too many definitions to make sense to me right now. Suffice it to say that post-modernism is trying to describe the next evolution of mankind driven by, among others the following forces: • Globalization and integration of our economies • The emergence of global instant communication within and among civilizations • Unrelenting and multifaceted technological innovation (e.g., digital technology, bio-science/DNA/human genome, cosmology/Hubble Space Telescope, and new Physics) • Exploding new forms of media • A need for global political consensus around values to support emerging forms of global governance • These forces are putting pressure on group and individual identities as they are forcing change on the cultures from which identities are grounded.

4. The Issue: Identity • Individual and group identity emerge from culture, family, historical conditions, and from the integration of mega trends into group and individual behaviors and values. This is not always a stress-free or smooth process. It can be full of conflict and confusion. However, it cannot be avoided. Change must occur. • Many groups in the world are facing this pressure, among them: • The Arab World (see President Obama’s speech in Cairo) or the cultural undertone in the speeches of Osama Ben Laden • Indigenous and primitive societies as globalization encroaches (examples throughout South America) • Tibetan society and its conflict with modernizing China • Eastern Europeans as they integrate into the European Community • African Americans cannot escape this pressure for evolution and increasing integration into the emerging world. Old identities grounded in the primacy of the slavery experience must evolve.

5. The Issue as it affects African Americans African American make up slightly over one-half of 1% of humankind, and are an accident of history (colonialism, British Empire, the slave trade, American history). As a group African Americans have made substantial contributions to the world in many fields including: science, politics, culture and human rights. More contributions are coming. However, the trends listed previously are global and contextual in nature and African Americans cannot avoid them. Therefore, the question arises, how will African American integrate those trends into a new identity? Historically African American fortunes have been heavily influenced by two factors: our role in the economy and the pace and direction of social change (integration into or isolation from the larger American society). I will use these two major drivers to create the scenario map/matrix overleaf. The scenario descriptions which follow should be thought of as about 5 years in duration. They are the pieces of the game.

6. Future of African American Identity Scenario Map Below are summary descriptions of the range of uncertainty of the major drivers. These are the opposite extremes which can develop. Crossing these two will create our scenario map overleaf. African American Social Evolution Ghettoized* Limited Specific Global Expansive Cross-Fertilized Shape of Economic Integration Absorbed Rise with Tide Isolated Rich/Poor Divide *This term is not intended to be used in a pejorative or negative sense, but in the more general sense of being in an involuntary isolated social position.

7. Future of African American Identity Scenario Map and Titles Absorbed The 21st Century Plantation Obama’s World African American Social Evolution Shape of Economic Integration Ghettoized Global The New Talented 10th The Big Step Back Isolated

8. Future of African American Identity Scenario Map and Icons Absorbed The 21st Century Plantation Icons: Music Record Companies, Owners of NBA teams Obama’s World Icons: Barack Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Jay-Z African American Social Evolution Shape of Economic Integration Ghettoized Global The New Talented 10th Icons: Ken Chenault (CEO of American Express), Richard Parsons (CEO of Time Warner The Big Step Back Icons: Rev. Al Sharpton, Rev. Jeremiah Wright Isolated

9. Scenario Highlights: The 21st Century Plantation • Slow but steady recovery from the impact of the 2008-2010 on Black wealth as larger US recovers • Black community still struggling with lack of access to capital to grow native businesses. • Vast majority of Black spending outside its own community • Best and brightest cream-skimmed into larger culture • Rising cost of higher education shuts Blacks out and forces them into poor quality for-profit education • African American culture as a brand in the larger world media complex with heavy sexual content • Racial politics remains a real factor in US

10. Scenario Highlights: Obama’s World • Global economic growth returns by 2012, Obama reelected • Fast recovery from the impact of the 2008-2010 on Black wealth as larger US recovers • Conservative politics dissolves in its own malfunction • Next generation politics of diversity moves to the center • US expands education investment as down payment on the future and Black youth benefit • Global culture and identity revolution outside the US moves toward positive shared values • A diverse musical scene with Pop, Hip-Hop, Jazz and Rock all expanding into global media

11. Scenario Highlights: The New Talented 10th • Uneven recovery of Black wealth from the 2008-2010 recession, wealth division leads to social division • Obama reelected but with no movement on the racial divide–as President he remains “above it” • Global economic recovery slow and fractured, wealth divide expands in the US • Inadequate investment in education plus rising costs of higher education allows few Blacks in • A diverse musical scene with Pop, Hip-Hop, Jazz and Rock but no defining innovations emerge • Struggle for identity in many cultures remains in conflict

12. Scenario Highlights: The Big Step Back • Long term impact of the 2008-2010 is devastating to Black wealth • US enters period of deflation and economic decline • Social strife and racial division arise again as poor are pitted against the poor • Rising cost of higher education shuts Blacks out and forces them into poor quality for-profit education • Conservative backlash against Obama Presidency leads to reemergence of Conservative right-wing politics • Return of innovative protest music, intense Blacks-only cultural norms emerge

13. Playing the African American Future Identity Game • There are several ways you can play with scenarios as building blocks: • Expand the summary ideas I gave on the scenario descriptions and add your own to make them deeper and more useful. • Where do you think African Americans are today—which scenario? • Depending on your starting scenario, where are African Americans likely to move? • Might there be movement in cycles between the scenario spaces over time, say 20 years? • You can email me at: gerald@artofquantumplanning.com to let me know how you are doing with the game. Have fun!

14. Future of African American Identity Scenario Map: the Game* Absorbed The 21st Century Plantation Obama’s World African American Social Evolution Shape of Economic Integration Ghettoized Global The New Talented 10th The Big Step Back *The game is the movement among the scenario states, using them like building blocks. *Arrow movements explained overleaf. Isolated

15. Future of African American Identity Scenario Map: Playing the Game The movements below are my initial ideas of moving from one world to another. What are your ideas of the movements? • Movement from Obama’s World to the 21st Century Plantation will be driven by people who want more separate identities and feel sold out. They will not realize that moving that way in will allow isolation within a the powerful forces of media. • Movement from the 21st Century Plantation the New Talented 10th will be driven by people who will decry the isolated feeling in their world, but will not realize the only route to Obama’s World is through the New Talented 10th who must open doors as powerful examples. • Movement from the Back Step Back world will be driven by people who are weary of the social isolation and will push for the economic integration which can only be achieved initially by the doors opened through a 21st Century Plantation path. • Movement from the New Talented 10th will be driven by people who want a bigger share of the economic pie and will push assimilation as the path of integration into an Obama’s World. Enjoy and Share!