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Mandating full New Deal participation for the over-50s: an experimental analysis

Mandating full New Deal participation for the over-50s: an experimental analysis. Richard Dorsett & Stefan Speckesser, Policy Studies Institute Commissioned by Department for Work and Pensions. Overview. Background Evaluation design Interim results Interpretation and generalisability

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Mandating full New Deal participation for the over-50s: an experimental analysis

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  1. Mandating full New Deal participation for the over-50s: an experimental analysis Richard Dorsett & Stefan Speckesser, Policy Studies Institute Commissioned by Department for Work and Pensions

  2. Overview • Background • Evaluation design • Interim results • Interpretation and generalisability • Conclusion

  3. Background

  4. New Deal 25 plus (ND25+) • ND25+ is a mandatory programme for individuals aged 25+ who have been claiming JSA for 18 months. • ND25+ has three elements: • Gateway • Intensive Activity Period (IAP) • Follow-through. • For those aged 50+, IAP is voluntary. Many choose not to volunteer so in 2002 government announced intention to pilot IAP mandate

  5. ONS population estimates

  6. Evaluation design

  7. Experiment • Those eligible randomly assigned to action group (mandatory IAP) or control (voluntary IAP) group • Randomisation takes place at start of Gateway - effect possible from that point on • Adviser collects background information then telephones DWP who assign. Customer informed immediately • Randomisation ran from: • 5 Apr 2004 – 31 Mar 2006 in 11 areas • 10 Jan 2005 – 30 Jun 2006 in 3 (ERA) areas. • Identify effect of mandate rather than IAP itself

  8. Data

  9. Data • Track outcomes using administrative data • 2,305 participants randomised up to 24 June 2005 • Merge with New Deal Evaluation Database (NDED) • 87 (3.7%) not found in NDED • 28 (1.2%) appear to start ND25+ after RA • 129 (6.0%) participants excluded as duration on Gateway longer than 28 days before RA • Result: 2,061 participants (89%)

  10. Interim results

  11. Regression results - exits to employment

  12. Regression results - exits to non-JSA benefit

  13. Duration analysis: predicted effects on status after 1 year (% point differences)

  14. Interpretation and generalisability

  15. 1. Are the right people randomised? • substantial number of eligibles excluded • substantial number of ineligibles included • Considerable variation across JC+ districts • Does this matter? Perhaps it replicates how policy would operate when rolled out nationally.

  16. 2. Is randomisation on time? • Experiment does not replicate how programme would operate when rolled out nationally • This does matter – do not observe full effect of mandate

  17. 3. Are pilot areas representative? • Compositional differences between pilot and non-pilot areas - eg ethnicity, age, length of benefit claim • Treatment differences between pilot areas (action and control groups) and non-pilot areas • those in pilot areas take 3 weeks longer until IAP • treatment offered under IAP differs across pilot and non-pilot areas

  18. Conclusion • Early results appear encouraging but important to note that these are preliminary. • Need to observe individuals beyond first ND25+ exit – final report will use more complete data. • Some deviations from programme design – highlights the importance of monitoring • Some issues relating to generalisability of the results need careful thought: • identification of eligible customers • timing of randomisation of eligible individuals • pilot representativeness

  19. Interim report available from: http://www.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/rports2005-2006/rrep362.pdf

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