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Dr. Shannon M. McNeeley

Drought Vulnerability NIDIS Missouri Basin Project Kickoff Meeting February 26-27, 2014 Nebraska City, NE. Dr. Shannon M. McNeeley North Central Climate Science Center Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado 80523 shannon.mcneeley@colostate.edu 970-491-1852. Dr. Cody L. Knutson

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Dr. Shannon M. McNeeley

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  1. Drought Vulnerability NIDIS Missouri Basin Project Kickoff Meeting February 26-27, 2014 Nebraska City, NE Dr. Shannon M. McNeeley North Central Climate Science CenterColorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado 80523shannon.mcneeley@colostate.edu 970-491-1852 Dr. Cody L. Knutson National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln cknutson1@unl.edu @NCCSC1 http://revampclimate.colostate.edu/ @DroughtCenter http://drought.unl.edu/

  2. Drought Vulnerability Assessment • Vulnerability broadly defined means individual or collective susceptibility to harm from the impacts of drought • Vulnerability Assessment Asks: • Who and what are at risk and why? • Where? • When?

  3. Outcome versus Context Vulnerability Context Always Matters O’Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L. P., & Schjolden, A. (2007). Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy, 7(1), 73–88

  4. “Vulnerability analysis bridges the gap between impact assessment and policy formulation by directing policy attention to underlying causes of vulnerability rather than to its result, the negative impacts, which follow triggering events such as drought” (Ribot et al. 1996)

  5. Drought Vulnerability Assessment Thomas, D. S. K., O. V Wilhelmi, T. N. Finnessey, and V. Deheza, 2013: A comprehensive framework for tourism and recreation drought vulnerability reduction. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044004.

  6. Drought vulnerability is variable. Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with drought. Drought risk management can increase this coping range—improving resilience to future events. Societal changes can increase or decrease this coping range. Coping range Probability P (x) Drought Flooding X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) Adapted from work by Barry Smit, University of Guelph

  7. Glick, P., B. A. Stein, N. A. Edelson, and V. Assessment, 2011: Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.,

  8. NDMC Planning and Social Science Program Area Vulnerability Assessment and Planning Farmers/ranchers - Communities - Watersheds - States Sustainable Adaptations to Drought and Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems Across Nebraska (2004-2006;UNL collaborators) • Questions: sustainable farmer and holistic rancher’s definitions of sustainability; effects of 2002-2004 drought; response/adaptation strategies implemented; use of weather and climate information; barriers to drought risk reduction and use of weather/climate information • Methods: mail survey and 48 face-to-face interviews Knutson, C.L., T. Haigh, M. Hayes, M. Widlham, J. Nothwehr, and M. Kleinschmidt (2011) Farmer Perceptions of Sustainable Agriculture Practices and Drought Risk Reduction in Nebraska, USA, Journal of Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 26(3): 255-266

  9. Drought Risk Management on the Ranch Great Plains focus (2006-2012) Ranchers; UNL/SDSU Extension; NRCS Questions: effects of drought on ranch operations in the Great Plains, drought management strategies; drought plan and process, and recommendations Methods: 21 telephone interviews with rancher/advisors involved in drought planning; deliberate dialogue (workshop); case studies, and advisor input Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch website: http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspx Haigh, T., and C. Knutson, Role of Perceived Control and Planning in Ranch Drought Preparedness, Great Plains Research, in press Knutson, C. L., and T. Haigh, 2013. A Drought Planning Methodology for Ranchers in the Great Plains, Rangelands. Vol. 35 (1), pp. 27-33.

  10. Decadal climate variability impacts, management, and information needs in the Missouri River Basin (2006-current) • Linking oceanic indices to multiple-year droughts and wet periods; effects on ag production and water systems • Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (Maryland); U.S. Army Corp or Engineers; NOAA Climate Services; State of Montana • Questions: impacts of multiple-year drought and wet periods on ag production and water systems; potential use of seasonal to multiple-year climate outlooks for management activities (based on oceanic indices) • Methods: face to face interviews; 7 deliberate dialogue (workshops); case studies (Kansas City; Great Falls, and Lincoln), basin-wide survey of community water systems, and expert advisory panel Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, C.L. Knutson, J. R. Olsen, N.A. Wall, T.K. Bernadt, M.J. Hayes, 2013: Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5, 27-42. Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2012: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena on dryland corn and wheat yields in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 152, 109-124. Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2011: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena on water yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47, 126-135.

  11. Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan 2010-2011 Prepared as Drought Annex to: Colorado Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan and Emergency Operations Plan Vulnerability Assessment http://cwcb.state.co.us/water-management/drought/Pages/StateDroughtPlanning.aspx

  12. McNeeley, S. M., 2014: A “Toad’s Eye” View of Drought: Regional Socio-natural Vulnerability and Responses in 2002. Reg. Environ. Chang., 1–12, doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0585-0.

  13. Vulnerability to environmental hazards based on the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvri/products/sovi.aspx. Created with ESRI ArcMap10.1

  14. The National Climate Assessment • US Global Research Program (USGCRP) • Global Change Research Act of 1990 • 2013 is third NCA (2000, 2009) • Regions, sectors, cross-cutting topics, mitigation and adaptation http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment

  15. Great Plains Region: DRAFT Key Findings Key Messages: Rising temperatures are leading to increased demand for water and energy. In parts of the region, this will constrain development, stress natural resources, and increase competition for water among communities, agriculture, energy production, and ecological needs.

  16. National Climate AssessmentTechnical Inputs http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-activities/available-technical-inputs

  17. Concluding thoughts… • Our vulnerability assessments to date are largely project-based; few basin-wide that are meaningful to decision makers • Several studies qualitative / some quantitative (or both) • Progression toward more quantitative and qualitative integrated assessments is needed • Integration can be challenging • Integrating models and perspectives • obtaining data; identifying meaningful vulnerability metrics • Context always matters!

  18. Contact Information: • Shannon McNeeley • shannon.mcneeley@colostate.edu • @NCCSC1 • 970-491-1852 • NCCSC, CSU • Fort Collins, CO • Cody Knutson • cknutson1@unl.edu • National Drought Mitigation Center • School of Natural Resources • University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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