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Richard Harper

Climate change adaptation for forestry: learning from recurrent droughts. Richard Harper. Alcoa Chair in Sustainable Water Management. Collaborators. John McGrath (CRC Future Farm Industries) Keith Smettem (University of WA) Don McGuire (ForestrySA) Tom Baker (University of Melbourne)

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Richard Harper

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  1. Climate change adaptation for forestry: learning from recurrent droughts Richard Harper Alcoa Chair in Sustainable Water Management

  2. Collaborators • John McGrath (CRC Future Farm Industries) • Keith Smettem (University of WA) • Don McGuire (ForestrySA) • Tom Baker (University of Melbourne) • Brad Evans (Murdoch University)

  3. Overview… • Projections of climate change for southern Australia often describe a change in the water balance • Region has both had a general drying trend and recurrent droughts with severe effects; the forest industry has adapted • Are these droughts analogues of future climate change? • How did adaptation occur? • Are the institutional structures in place to allow future adaptation?

  4. Australia’s forests and land use • Total forest area 149x106 ha • 138x106 hanative Eucalyptus & Acacia forests • 9x106 ha native Eucalyptus production forests • 1x106 ha plantation Pinus • 1x106 ha plantation Eucalyptus • Key component of carbon mitigation, expansion into new areas (State of the Forests Report, 2008, p. 5)

  5. The climate has been drying… CSIRO & BOM (2010)

  6. With recurrent droughts… (Harper et al. 2009, Plant Soil324: 199-207 )

  7. (Photo: R.J. Harper)

  8. (Photos: R.J. Harper)

  9. (Photo: J.F. McGrath)

  10. (Photo: J.F. McGrath)

  11. Drought responses • Regional responses - not all trees die. • Differences with: • Soils – soil water holding capacity • Slope position • Aspect • Species • Management as it affects leaf area (plantation density, fertilization etc)

  12. Responses: Site selection • Better definition of climate and species matching • Better definition of sites to depths of several metres • Maximizing soil water storage; avoid “shallow” sites

  13. Exploring drought response: effects of species, planting density and slope position (Harper et al. 2008, RIRDC Report 08/002 )

  14. How did responses occur? Plantation research capability – State departments, CSIRO Forestry, industry, universities Organizational expertise: e.g. SA– species trials within same organization over 100 years Memory of previous events and responses Able to respond to changes and devise new systems Does this adaptive capacity remain?

  15. Conclude with some questions… • Are droughts an adequate analogue of future climate change? • Will current institutional arrangements allow future adaptation? • Is there adequate research infrastructure in place (species, silviculture) to demonstrate alternatives? • Will there be adequate expertise to respond to surprises?

  16. Mountain pine beetle Emissions: 50 Mt CO2/year over 37 Mha (Kurz et al. 2008) (earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36209)

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