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Hervé Rannou hrannou@items.fr

Troubles & Perspectives. Hervé Rannou hrannou@items.fr. The big plunge. Telecom stocks from 2000 Infrastructures : -80% Internet : -80% Telcos : -40 % Mobiles : - 70 %. The big plunge. The big plunge. Market Capital / Turover (Booz Allen & Hamilton). Basic market trends.

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Hervé Rannou hrannou@items.fr

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  1. Troubles & Perspectives Hervé Rannou hrannou@items.fr

  2. The big plunge Telecom stocks from 2000 • Infrastructures : -80% • Internet : -80% • Telcos : -40 % • Mobiles : - 70 %

  3. The big plunge

  4. The big plunge Market Capital / Turover (Booz Allen & Hamilton)

  5. Basic market trends • PC Home • Internet users • Mobiles • Broadband

  6. Basic market trends • PC Households

  7. Basic market trends • Internet Users +1,5% / month +3% / month +3% / month +2% / month From 18% to 42% /year

  8. Basic market trends • Mobiles

  9. Market forecast vs Reality 1999 2000 – The ideal model 2001 – want the money back

  10. Revenue sources for next years • Mobiles • Internet Broadband • Internet Services & Contents • Customer services • Public services

  11. Revenue sources for next years • Mobiles : UMTS in trouble • The I-mode in Japan • > 30% of cellular subscribers

  12. Revenue sources for next years • Internet broadband • US • xDSL 2000 : 300.000 to 1.600.000 subscribers : +450 % + 90% expected in 2001 • Cable Modem 2000 : 1.400.000 to 3.300.000 • XDSL France • 2001 : 71.000 to 450.000 subscribers • Critical Issues : • unbundling & open access • Broadband networks

  13. Revenue sources for next years • Typical Revenues / Month (US) • Local : $25 • LD : $20 • Cable : $30 • Cable services (PPV …) : $10 • Internet : $20 • Broadband Internet : $35 • Cellular : $40 • Cellular services : $5 $/month Nb subs.

  14. Local governments : the new players • Develop applications • For Citizens • For Education • For Health • … • Take part in the Broadband access debate • Partnership vs competitor with operators • Exemples : Sweden, Germany, France, Canada, US

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