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Climate Outlook – August 2011

Climate Outlook – August 2011. ENSO Remains Neutral; Neutral or Weak La Nina Likely for Oct - Jan. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. MJJ 2011 SST forecast from Apr. Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.63 Trop 0.66 Uncentered correlation

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Climate Outlook – August 2011

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  1. Climate Outlook – August 2011 ENSO Remains Neutral; Neutral or Weak La Nina Likely for Oct - Jan

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season MJJ 2011 SST forecast from Apr Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.63 Trop 0.66 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.64 Trop 0.65 MJJ 2011 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season MJJ 2011 SST obs anom (deg C) warm cold MJJ 2011 precip anom (mm/day) wet dry

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast MJJ 2011 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.004 (0.010) T 0.009 (0.017) Rate of Return: G 0.004 (0.010) T 0.010 (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.021 (0.047) T 0.033 (0.075) GROC: G 0.539 (0.544) T 0.570 (0.571) MJJ 2011 precip probab forecast from mid-Apr

  5. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast MJJ 2011 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.046(0.116) T-0.023 (0.178) Rate of Return: G 0.032 (0.112) T-0.047 (0.182) Heidke skill: G 0.122 (0.299) T-0.081 (0.406) GROC: G 0.524 (0.580) T 0.454 (0.630) MJJ 2011 temp probab forecast from mid-Apr

  6. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | --------------------------------------------------------------------

  7. Stronger El Niño El Nino Jul La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  8. * * * * * * * * * * * * Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP very strong La Nina signature in atmosphere

  9. Stronger La Niña very strong ** ******** ******** StrongerEl Niño

  10. mid-May

  11. mid-Jun

  12. mid-Jul

  13. mid-Aug

  14. Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Mildly enhanced trades persist Thermocline depth becom-ing much below average in eastern part of basin ENSO state: neutral, but leaning toward cool

  15. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) mid- Aug 2011 mid- Jul 2011 weak moderate MJO MJO + + neutral ENSO Neutral(--) ENSO = = Neutral(--) ENSO Neutral(-) ENSO

  16. from July

  17. from August

  18. July 2011 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  19. August 2011 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  20. Starting with the July 2011 forecast, the climate base period was changed from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  21. uses 1971-2000 climo uses 1981-2010 climo

  22. Monthly global mean temperature anomaly over land (relative to 1960-1990)

  23. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsAugust 2011 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  24. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  25. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

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