South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Data-Driven Decision Making

1. South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Data-Driven Decision Making John Speir, Ph.D. Applied Research Services, Inc.

2. Presentation Objectives • Sentence Reform Goals: 2001 Commission • Understanding Prison Population Dynamics • Population Drivers: Preliminary Look at Pre-Conviction Data

3. Presentation Objectives • What is Evidence-based reform? • Simple Theory vs. Hard Reality • Reform vs. Statutory Tinkering • What Data Will We Examine? • Testing our Proposals? • Reform without Guidelines as a Goal?

4. Selected 2001 Guideline Goals • Discretion, fairness, and consistency • Management tool to better predict & plan correctional growth • Encourage intermediate sanctions

5. Just Understand the Buckets Do Not Fill Above Line County Jails DOC Intake Diversion Solicitors State Prisons Pre-Release Earned Credits Parole Courtesy: Tim Carr

6. Sentence Reform: Looks Easy In Theory Population Drivers • Demographics/Structural Factors • Crime & Arrest Trends • Filings/Convictions • Admissions – New Court/ Revocations • Length-of-Stay Prison Population

7. Not Easy In Reality SentencingPractices Sentencing Reform Policies Crime & Arrests Convictions Prison Population Adapted from Wicharaya (1995)

8. Review of Population Drivers • State Demographics/Social Structural • Crime & Arrest Trends • Criminal Filings/Convictions

9. Review of Population Drivers • Admissions: New Court & Revocations • Length-of-Stay • Correctional Alternatives Turned into Supplements • Unexpected System Response

10. State Census Projections • State Demographics • Crime & Arrest Trends • Criminal Filings/Convictions

11. Census Projections 2009-2015 % Change Age Groups 17-2425-30 SC -2% +4% GA +4% +6% NC +7% +15% US -3% +6% Exercise caution using Projections in 2000 which are based on 2000 Census: U.S. Census never released the final projections in 2005: Next Census Projections Not Expected Until 2014

12. Violent Crime and Incarceration Rate Violent Crime Rate Incarceration Rate

13. UCR Violent Crime Rate vs. Correctional Population Rates (per 100,000 pop) 1200 Violent Crime 900 Incarceration Rate 600 Admission Rate 300 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2007

14. Problem with Rates: We Do Not Incarcerate Rates But People

15. Correctional Population Total Inmate Pop +13% Since 2000 Admissions +26% Since 2000 8

16. Filings, Dispositions, And Pending % Change 2000-07 Filings +16% Dispositions + 5% Pending +41% Source: Judicial Department

17. Percent Convictions (%) No Significant Change Over Last 5 years (40% to 42%) Source: Judicial Department

18. Understanding the Drop in Crime: No Silver Bullets • Age-out of Baby Boomers • Abatement of the crack epidemic in late 1980’s-early 1990’s • Increased incapacitation • Police strategies • Domestic Violence prevention programs & on-the-spot arrest policies

19. Understanding the Drop in Crime • Economic Conditions and Low Unemployment

20. The goal is manage the prison population rather than it managing the State

21. Convicted Offenders Fall into 3 Basic Groups ? Absolutely Prison NoPrison Offense & Offender Severity

22. Admission and Length-of-Stay Prison Admissions X Length-of-Stay = Prison Population

23. Alternatives to Incarceration or Correctional Supplements? Prison Admissions Court Imposed Sentences New Program Alternative Expensive Probation Not “True” Diversion Potential Prison Accelerant Probation Admissions

24. What is Evidence-Based Reform & How We Do It?

25. Evidence…. • Use the best available data • Use tools to project possible impact and unanticipated consequences • Avoid emotion and wait until the data are presented • Weigh the data against SRC goals.

26. Simulation… • Can describe & analyze the behavior of a system • Can answer “what if” questions • Eliminates the emotion in decision-making

27. Do We Have the Right Data? • Department of Corrections: 5 Years of Admissions, Active, and Release Population • Probation, Parole, and Pardons: Admissions, Revocations, and Parole Hearing Outcomes • Judicial Department: 10-Years Indictments and Dispositions

28. Commission Data? • SLED/Budget Control Board: Computerized Criminal History (CCH)- rapsheet repository • Statistical Analysis Center (SAC): • National Incident-based Reporting System

29. Tools: Simulating the Potential Impact “Imitate the operation of a real world system over time.” Jerry Banks, 1998. The Handbook of Simulation.

30. Defining a Projected Impact “Designed not to predict what will happen…but rather explore what would happen if assumptions unfold in different ways..” Donella Meadows “Thinking in Systems: A Primer”, 2008

31. Simulation… • Can test every aspect of a proposed change without committing resources • Can explore new policies or operating procedures without the expense & disruption of experimenting on the real system

32. Demonstration…

33. Concepts & Ideas Other States

34. Admissions: Front-End • Alternatives to incarceration based on best practices • Risk Assessment worksheets for alternative placement (additional offender information) • Bench book (electronic) to provide summary of statewide practices in similarly situated cases (advisory only) • Revise statutory eligibility criteria

35. Admissions: Front-End • Statutory revisions limiting prison as an option • Statutory prohibition against prison for probation/technical violators • Pre-adjudication alternatives coupled with rehabilitative obligations

36. Length-of-Stay: Front-End • Offense reclassification • Redefine violent offense • Bench book (electronic) to provide summary of statewide practices in similarly situated cases (advisory only) • Statutory revisions limiting maximum prison term (or reclassification)

37. Length-of-Stay: Back-End (Prison Release Mechanisms) • Parole release decision-making • Objective parole release guidelines • Short-term incarceration with intermediate sanctions to follow (target inmates with longer prison terms) • Different earned time credits for different inmate classes • Statutory revisions limiting maximum prison term

38. Admissions: Back-End • Sentence Conversions following DOC classification

39. Discussion

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