Bridging the Macro and the Micro: Integrating Empirical Realities with Scenario Analysis

1. Bridging the Macro and the Micro: Integrating Empirical Realities with Scenario Analysis Elusiyan Eludoyin Doctoral Researcher UCL Energy Institute

2. Map Aim Concept Holistic Framework Conclusion Methodological Approach

3. Aim Policy for sustainable provision and adoption of modern energy services. • Sustainability of the transition for different consumers, under changing environments. • Nature of the transition • Suitability of policy mechanisms for given socio-economic conditions • Consumer and Supplier relations – How Policy impacts? Macro Micro Consumers Government/ Dev. Agency Policy Investors Modern Energy Service Suppliers

4. Concept • Transition (consumer) • Energy ladder, fuel stacking • Kowsari and Zerrifi 2011 – three dimensional assessment (energy services) • Decision making (consumer) • Behavioural economics, technology adoption theory, social and environmental psychology, sociology • Wilson et al 2007 – various economical and non-economical factors ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- • Holistic transition • Beyond financial necessities • Stakeholder engagement and nature, linked to underlying goals (sustainability). • Households, livelihoods; SMEs/public institutions, avoided costs/value addition • Suppliers, organisational objective (profit, not-for profit)

5. CONDITIONS Framework Economy Energy Resources Industrialization Sovereignty Political stability, Transparency Endogenous service CONSUMERS TRANSITION SUPPLIERS demand Exogenous MARKET ENVIRONMENT INVESTORS Type of investment Contractual terms Partnerships Resource selection Liquidity Regulation Technology Wider sector structure

6. Approach – Scenario Analysis AHP Consumer Choices Consumer Choices Consumer Choices Supplier choices Supplier choices Supplier choices LEAP LEAP LEAP Market Environment Market Environment Market Environment 5 years Base year 10 years Scenario End 20 years Reference Scenario – Current trends Existing Commitments – Broad policy commitments and plans Renewable Energy Scenario – Explorative; competitiveness of renewable energy

7. Consumers (e.g. household) -Necessary livelihood needs (livelihood capitals) -Linked to Exogenous factors AHP – Analytical Hierarchy Process • Exogenous factors based on relevant policy criteria – • Supply-side Policy Criteria • Financing mechanism (access to credit) • Subsidy level (direct funding support) • Cost of tech components (Tax incentives) • Finance/Funding channels (REA, MFI) • Technical capacity (development agency policy) • Previous Level of Demand (based on LEAP output) • Demand-side Policy Criteria • Financing mechanism (access to credit) • Other Welfare needs (policy alignment) • Service Type from Producers (based on supplier AHP analysis) Suppliers -Necessary operational measures (sustainability factors) -Linked to exogenous factors

8. Conclusion • Limitations • Dependent on assumptions (iteration process, market picture) • Participant understanding of questions • Secondary data availability • Willing practitioners • To provide knowledge on the suitability of certain policy actions on country and local dynamics.

9. Thank you for your attention Questions and Comments please