Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis

1. Introduction to Empirical Food & Nutrition Security Analysis

2. Outline • Concept • Dimensions & Policy Options • State of Food Insecurity Today • Global Hunger Index • Bangladesh Scenario • Contemporary Policy Questions • Course Structure Food Security Introduction

3. Food Security The World Food Summit in 1996: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” : Introduction Food Security Introduction

4. Food Security: Four Dimensions • Access • Availability • Stabilization • Utilization Food Security Introduction

5. Food Security: Policy Options (i) Increase food availability by (a) imports, (b) increased food production by modern technology/expansion of area under cultivation, (c) depleting stocks, (d) efficient market infrastructure, (e) land redistribution; (ii) Promote household/individual access to food by increasing entitlements (subsidies) or endowments (income transfers/asset redistribution/school feeding/nutrition programme); (iii) Better utilization of food by education and general environment like access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Food Security Introduction

6. State of Food Insecurity

7. Food Insecurity • A major problem facing developing countries. • World: Number and percentage of undernourished persons • 2006-2008 - 850million (13%) • 2000-2002 - 836million (14%) • 1995-1997 - 792million (14%) • 1990-1992 - 848million (16%) • 1979-1981 - 853million (21%) • 1969-1971 - 878million (26%) Source: http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/ Food Security Introduction

8. Number of hungry people, 1969-2010 Source: FAO Food Security Introduction

9. Number of Hungry in the world: 925 million in 2010 Food Security Introduction

10. Global Hunger Index IFPRI Index Source: IFPRI

11. Global Hunger Index Objectives: • Rank countries. • Compare international experience for policy guidance. • Draw global attention. Food Security Introduction

12. Global Hunger Index • Sample: • Based on 120 developing and transitional countries; • Compares 88 only. • Three indicators • Un-weighted average as an index Food Security Introduction

13. Indicators Food Security Introduction

14. Hunger Index Scale Food Security Introduction

15. Country Classification: n= 120 Food Security Introduction

16. Global Trends: 1990 - 2008 • Hunger (Global index): decreased by less than one-fifth • 1990: 18.7 • 2008: 15.2 • Performance by indicator • % underweight children: declined by 5.9 points Food Security Introduction

17. Regional Profile: 2008 • Status: Alarming • Sub-Saharan Africa: 23.3 • South Asia: 23.0 • Ten countries (highest levels of hunger); nine are in Sub-Saharan Africa. • Ten best performers since 1990: None from Sub-Saharan Africa. Food Security Introduction

18. Country Profiles Food Security Introduction

19. Country Profiles Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

20. Poverty Profile Food Security Introduction

21. Where Do The Poor Live? Food Security Introduction Food Security: Introduction

22. Global Index Scale Food Security Introduction

23. 2008 Global Hunger IndexSource; IFPRI Food Security Introduction

24. Progress – RegressSource; IFPRI Food Security Introduction

25. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2008 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

26. GHI-Winners and Losers: 1990 – 2011 Source: IFPRI Food Security Introduction

27. GHI: Progress in South, East and Southeast Asia Food Security Introduction

28. Bangladesh: Food Security Scenariohttp://www.usaid.gov/bd/programs/food_sec.html • Nearly self-sufficient in rice; Food security an elusive goal: • About 43% of children under-five stunted; • Cause: Malnourishment due to poor feeding habits & lack of access to nutritious foods. • Lack of diversity in diet: 75% of calories from rice. • Decline in agricultural growth rate : 4.7% in the late 1990’s to 2.8% by 2008. • Agriculture: Employs 80% population generates 22% of GDP • Bangladesh’s arable area: 37% ; natural disasters can affect 30% of this land. Food Security Introduction

29. Bangladesh: Policy PrioritiesBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 1. Agricultural Growth and Productivity of Crops, and Adaptation to Climate Change 2. Development of Fisheries and Livestock Sectors 3. Agricultural Marketing, Price Stabilization, Value Chain, and Global/Regional Trade 4. Income Growth, Social Safety Nets, and Public Food Distribution 5. Food Utilization and Nutrition Security 6. Cross-Cutting Issues: Governance and Gender Food Security Introduction

30. Contemporary Policy Questions 1. What is the state of food insecurity today? 2. If the entire subsidy regime were to be reformed as part of the economic reform programme, what would be the macroeconomic and distributional consequences? 3. What are the different policy roles that a food subsidy prorgramme can play? What is the international evidence? 4. How far an income transfer programme like food stamps is feasible in developing countries like Bangladesh and India? What is the international experience? 5. How far did Bangladesh succeed in dealing with the 1979 famine? How useful is the information base for policy formulation and implementation? 6. What are the effective alternatives to the ‘Food for Work Programme in Bangladesh’? 7. What is the impact of commodity price volatility on nutritional intake of poor households in Bangladesh? Food Security Introduction

31. Course Structure • Addresses issues related to food & nutrition security within a quantitative framework. • It raises issues within a quantitative framework; • Describes appropriate statistical tools for analysis; • Illustrates its application with reference to published studies / exercises based on sample data sets; and • Interprets results and examines policy implications. Food Security Introduction

32. Thank You

33. Supplementary Information

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41. Bangladesh: A Food Security Profile Food Security Introduction

42. Bangladesh: Economic Indicators Food Security Introduction

43. Bangladesh: Health Indicators Food Security Introduction

44. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Security Introduction

45. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Security Introduction

46. Bangladesh: Pursuit of FNSBangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 Food Security Introduction