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Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000

Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000. Raimundo Duarte Manager for Regulatory and Industry Affairs Nokia do Brasil Multimedia in 221 st Century - Porto Seguro, April, 6 th - 2001 raimundo.duarte@nokia.com. Agend a. Nokia's vision of the Mobile Information Society

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Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000

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  1. Mobile Multimedia Evolution from 2G to IMT-2000 Raimundo DuarteManager for Regulatory and Industry AffairsNokia do BrasilMultimedia in 221st Century - Porto Seguro, April, 6th - 2001raimundo.duarte@nokia.com

  2. Agenda • Nokia's vision of the Mobile Information Society • Present Situation for 2G and 3G • Mobile Services, perspectives • GSM Phenomena in LA • World Technological Division • Evolution Path to IMT-2000 • Nokia Solution • Summary

  3. Nokia Vision:The Mobile Information Society Any Service Any Application Any Time Any Location Any Network Any Device

  4. Present Scenario • Current Networks are 2nd Generation – 90% Digital • Evolution of 2ndGeneration – Same bands • IMT-2000 already specified • Licenses for 3G granted ~75 to date

  5. Standands x Frequency in 2G • GSM 800 - 900 – 1800 - 1900 • CDMA 800 - 1700 - 1900 • TDMA 800 - 1900 • AMPS 800

  6. Standands x Frequency in 3G • WCDMA 1900/2100 • CDMA2000 1900/2100 • Number of Licenses • 73 WCDMA • 2 CDMA2000 New Frequency Bands for 3G were allocated in WRC-2000 How to use >> Under Big Discussion in ITU

  7. Current Services • SMS • E-SMS • m-commerce • m-banking • Entertainment Increase the ARPU – today up to 9%

  8. Mobile data and SMS info on selected operators in Europe Operator, Country % revs SMS/sub/ Charge SMS from data month chat (Euro cents) Sonera, Finland 9 23 16 NetCom, Norway 9 25 1.2 Telenor, Norway n/a 30 14 TeleDanmark/Denmark 3 40 7 OPI, Italy 4.5 18 10 TIM, Italy 3 10 12* D1, Germany 6.3 32 8* BT Cellnet, UK n/a 15 18.6 Vodafone, UK 6 25 11 Orange, UK n/a 33 6.4-16 Itineris, France <1* n/a 14* Bouygues, France <1 5 10.6 Telefonica, Spain 4 13 15 Telecel, Portugal 1 4 10 Panafon, Greece 4.6 30 9 Libertel, Netherlands 2 n/a 23* Eircell, Ireland <2 30 14 • Total Europe, • Merill Lynch estimates • % Operator revenues from data: • 2000: 4% • 2005: 26% • 2010: 50% • % Operator revenues from non-access: • 2000: 2% • 2005: 16% • 2010: 33% Note: *data as of January Source: company data/Merill Lynch estimates, June 2000

  9. The Philippines Phenomena • Mobile Subscriber Explosion: • 220 % growth in 12 months • 96% of the new users chose GSM • True Winner : • 1 700 000 new users in 12 months • Every subscriber sends 27 text messages every day at cost of 2 US cents per message • 50 million messages / day • Daily revenue : 1 M USD

  10. 3G is an Evolution not a Revolution • 3G will not happen overnight, but in gradual evolutionary steps • 3G is a combination of a wide range of enabling technologies • For consumers 3G is not discontinuity, but an evolution of handsetfunctionality 3G is one more step of Mobile Internet!

  11. Thursday Partly cloudy. Temperature 4..8 C Friday Rain 3G is driven by services, not technology Today's applications will evolve to 3G Usability of 3G applications require higher bit rates

  12. The Perspective of Mobile Data

  13. Data Over GSM by Technology, Western Europe1999-2004

  14. Mobile Services Revenue in Western Europe — Voice versus Data, 1998-2004

  15. SMS Forecast, Worldwide(no. of messages sent) SMS in 2000 (average) SMS Forecast 2000-2005 (monthly) 80 Asia 70 Continental Europe 5 billion 12 billion 60 50 Middle East Billion 0.25 billion 40 North America 30 0.5 billion 20 South America 1 billion 10 Eastern Europe 0 1 billion 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 • Totally 20 billion SMS per month • GSM Association estimates 10 billion SMS on GSM by Dec. 2000 Source: Mobile Lifestreams, June 2000

  16. Why this will happen?

  17. Metcalfe’s Law More manufactures and R&Dproduce greater range, drivescapability up and unit price down Large markets attract more manufactures and R&D PositiveFeedback Large range, capability and lowprice attract more users More users create large markets

  18. GSM Phenomena in Latin America GSM countries after 2000: Antigua & Barbuda Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile El Salvador French Caribbean Guatemala Jamaica Mexico Paraguay Peru Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela GSM Maybe GSM TDMA/CDMA GSM countries in 1998: Chile French Caribbean Paraguay Venezuela Colombia Uruguay Ecuador Guyana

  19. ~35% of CDMA subscribers are in Korea (1/2001) Economies of scale Source : Global Mobile TDMA/GSM CDMA Infravendors 3/+10 ~7 Infra market ~4B/~17B ~$6B Subscribers 62M/450M 80M Terminal vendors 5/40 20 ~60% of world market +200 M units in 2000 Various sources: Nokia, EMC, Ovum

  20. First to the market • Usually new features come first to GSM - vendors spend most and first of their efforts on the largest market • SMS (chat, picture messaging, ring tones, logos / icons) • Circuit switched data (9.6 kbps -> 14.4 kbps -> HSCSD x times 14.4 kbps) • WAP • Packet data (GPRS and EGPRS) • Location Based Services (E-OTD, Cell ID & TA, GPS) • Accessories (Handspring visor GSM module, telematics, etc.) • SIM card • Security • M-commerce • SIM ATK • Control over handset configuration with Class 2 SMS • Distribution • SyncML, MMS, Java, EPOC terminals

  21. Strong Standardization • Well defined standards in GSM and WCDMA • GSM standard is strict, with rigorous Type Approval -> all carriers can utilize the standard terminal • Other technologies with loose standards present possibility for endless carrier variations increasing the cost for handsets • Easy to have multiple infrastructure vendors for GSM • GSM offers worldwide roaming • Value added services available when you roam (SMS, CSD, WAP, etc.)

  22. Analogue & Digital Technologies Source: EMC 01/2001

  23. Digital Cellular Technologies Source: EMC 01/2001

  24. World Cellular Subscriber Division end 2000 Source: EMC 12/00

  25. Belgium WCDMA becoming the dominant 3G standard 3 x WCDMA Portugal 4 x WCDMA 4 x WCDMA Sweden 73 WCDMA licences awarded plus more to come… (120 by end 2001) Vs 13 CDMA2000 networks planned (out of which 2 already opted for WCDMA) 2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000 [??] S. Korea Switzerland 5 x WCDMA Norway 4 x WCDMA 6 x WCDMA Austria 5 x WCDMA Italy Taiwan Hong Kong Germany 6 x WCDMA Czech 5 x WCDMA Netherlands Ireland 2 x WCDMA1 x CDMA2000 Japan Greece UK 5 x WCDMA Denmark France Spain 4 x WCDMA 4 x WCDMA Singapore Liechtenstein 1 x WCDMA 5 x WCDMA Australia Finland 4 x WCDMA 4 x WCDMA New Zealand 1999 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1H2001 2H2001

  26. Standard completed TDMA (IS-41) CDPD GSM (MAP)HSCSD WCDMA TDD PDC/PDC-P cdmaOne(IS-41) Standard in preparation Evolution of Mobile Radio StandardsEstimated Product Availabiliy 30kHz 200kHz 43.2 kbits/s EDGE 384 kbits/s 2 Mbits/s GPRS 5MHz WCDMA FDD WCDMA HSDPA 115.2 kbits/s 170 kbits/s Wide area coverage 10 Mbits/s 2 Mbits/s TD-SCDMA 14.4 kbits/s 1.25MHz 2.4 Mbits/s 1XEV - DO cdma2000-1X 1XEV - DV 4,8 Mbits/s 76.8 kbits/s 307.2 kbits/s 2003 2000 2001 2002

  27. WCDMA part Nokia UltraSite: solutions that garanty tomorrow operators today's investement • Nokia UltraSite Base Station: One unit for all technologies! • How does it work? • First 'triple-mode BTS' in the world for GSM, EDGE, UMTS • Data speeds of up to 107,4 kbit/s with GRPS • Data speed of more than 400 kbit/s with EDGE • Data speeds of up to 2Mbit/s with UMTS carriers • Operates on all relevant frequencies • What are the benefits? • Mobile Multimedia Coverage and GSM Coverage • Enables GPRS, ECSD, EGPRS data services • One platform for all of GSM, EDGE, and UMTS • Secures the operators network investement GSM or EDGE part

  28. Summary • TDMA and GSM are converging with a smooth evolution path to 3G • GSM is the dominate 2G protocol • WCDMA and EDGE will be the dominate 3G protocol • Global economies of scale and global roaming • Better and more cost effective terminal, infra and application portfolio • GSM800/1800/1900 enables 3G evolution to TDMA operators • Common core network for GSM/GPRS -> EDGE/WCDMA • Triple mode Nokia Ultrasite base station • Multimode and multiband terminals Terminals will allow roaming Worldwide (GSM + WCDMA)

  29. Thanks! Muito Obrigado!

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