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Human Language Technology: Where are we going and where have we been (since 2003)?

Human Language Technology: Where are we going and where have we been (since 2003)?. Kenneth Church IBM 10/11/2014. 2003 Baseline. Don’t Video Tape Predictions. That’s my story (and I’m sticking to it). Speech and Language Processing: Where have we been and where are we going?.

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Human Language Technology: Where are we going and where have we been (since 2003)?

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  1. Human Language Technology:Where are we going and where have we been (since 2003)? Kenneth Church IBM 10/11/2014

  2. 2003 Baseline Don’t Video Tape Predictions

  3. That’s my story (and I’m sticking to it) Speech and Language Processing:Where have we beenand where are we going? Consistent Progress over Decades Consistent Progress Over Decades Kenneth Ward Church AT&T Labs-Research church@att.com www.research.att.com/~kwc

  4. On Optimism • Salesmen admit they are optimists • But engineers claim to be pessimists • Design for 100-year flood & Murphy’s Law • But even engineers underestimate • Time & Cost (by a lot)

  5. The Disk Space Conjecture • Improvements in Speech, Language (& more) • are indexed to improvements in disk capacities • because disk prices  size of web  training data • 2003 Prediction: • Disks improve1000x per decade • 1TB: $1k (2003)  $1 (2013) • Missed by 30x (a TB is currently ~ $30 >> $1)

  6. Disk Prices Over 30 Yearshttp://www.jcmit.com/diskprice.htm 191x cheaper per decade (1985-2014) 1750x cheaper per decade (1995-2003) Flood

  7. What happened since 2003? Siri, Stupid! 20-years behind schedule… • Remarkably similar to • 1992 “Good Morning America” Demo • Successful in the sense that • Everyone has heard of it • But not easy to answer obvious question: • What is it good for?

  8. Siri Commercial

  9. What can you do?

  10. Siri Scenarios • Less compelling • Time, Weather, Sports, Stock Quotes • More compelling • Inbound messaging • Reply to SMS (while driving) • Warning: this could be hazardous! • Outbound messaging: phone, SMS • Open app • Scrolling  ineffective as |apps|  infinity • Map search (directions) • Web search Safety Privacy

  11. What can you do with Siri? • Popular: 1M views • Articulate, Funny, Entertaining, Appeals to target demographics • Demonstrates that Siri is fun • But is it useful? • Her best examples are not convincing: • Jokes, alarms, music • Unlike Siri’s worst bugs: • Siri almost gives away her home phone number Privacy

  12. We’ve made it big when…

  13. Where have we been and where are we going? Speech and Language (and Everything Else)

  14. That’s my story (and I’m sticking to it) Speech and Language Processing:Where have we beenand where are we going? Consistent Progress over Decades Consistent Progress Over Decades No Breakthroughs No Breakthroughs Kenneth Ward Church AT&T Labs-Research church@att.com www.research.att.com/~kwc

  15. Yogi Berra Stands up well to test of time • If you don't know where you are going, • you'll end up someplace else. • It's tough to make predictions, • especially about the future. • The future ain't what it used to be. • Deja Vu All Over Again • I wish I had an answer to that • because I'm tired of answering that question. • I never said most of the things I said. • Half the lies they tell about me aren't true. Don’t Video Tape Predictions

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