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Introduction to Forecasting

Introduction to Forecasting. Meteorology 415 Fall 2011. Meteorology 415. Syllabus Forecasting is like…. Appreciating the methods…10,000 hours Basic course plan Welcome to the web page Assessment One and Two Scoring Exercise Objectives. Forecasting is Like…. Appreciate the Methods.

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Introduction to Forecasting

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  1. Introduction to Forecasting Meteorology 415 Fall 2011

  2. Meteorology 415 • Syllabus • Forecasting is like…. • Appreciating the methods…10,000 hours • Basic course plan • Welcome to the web page • Assessment One and Two • Scoring Exercise • Objectives

  3. Forecasting is Like….

  4. Appreciate the Methods.. Which day of the week or month or year are these images from????

  5. Appreciate the Methods…. • I was looking over my synopsis of the book Outliers again this week, thinking about the 10,000 hour rule.  That’s the rule that says that it takes 10,000 hours to get really good at anything.   But it’s not just any old 10,000 hours. It is 10,000 hours spent with the intention of mastering a skill — hours spent intent on getting better.  It really does take a lot of hard, hard work.  Gladwell wrote that “The people at the very top don’t work just harder or even much harder than everyone else.  They work much, much harder.”  (p. 39).  And part of that work, (much of that work) is spent in practice.  Here is his definition of practice from a music context:  “Practicing:  that is, purposefully and single-mindedly playing their instruments with the intent to get better”  (p. 39).   

  6. How the class will work The Big Picture of the role of NWP in the forecast process..

  7. Metric – Data Drill, Forecast Problems, Map Discussions and Quizzes (50%)

  8. Migrating from Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts (Brier Scores)

  9. Metric: 3 Forecast Contests (I – 5%, II – 10%, III – 25%) – all probabilistic

  10. Metric: Advancing Your Knowledge Base (COMET Modules /Labs– 2+) 10%

  11. Metric: Labs on using models (conceptual, empirical, numerical)

  12. The Forecast Web Page http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~m415mgr/FALL11/

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