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CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November 4 2009

CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November 4 2009 Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) and Dept of Chemistry UiO. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses

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CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November 4 2009

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  1. CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas NILU, November 4 2009 Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)and Dept of Chemistry UiO Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – ‘co-benefits’ Solid household fuels and environmental impacts

  2. 1. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses The Costs of Pollution in China • SEPA/World Bank • Goal: To estimate the costs of air and water pollution in China • The national team: SEPA and affiliates (Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Policy Research Center of Environment and Economy, the China National Environment Monitoring Center), the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), Ministry of Health (MoH), CDC • International team:World Bank, RFF (USA), ECON Pöyry, CICERO

  3. Main results of SEPA/WB project (in billion RMB)

  4. CICERO: Quantifying health and environmental damage from air pollution

  5. 2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – co-benefits Climate-change and air-pollution links • Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources • Air pollutants as a climate forcing (especially tropospheric ozone and particles) • Chemistry links: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs

  6. Top-down study: Costs of a CO2 tax in China using macroeconomic model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefits and distributional effects (with the Development Research Center of the State Council) Semi-bottom-up study:Energy saving and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province: CO2 reductions and health co-benefits (ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn) Bottom-up study:‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan: CO2 reductions and health co-benefits (ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn)

  7. 1. Implementing a CO2 tax in China: Welfare analysis for 2010 including health benefits

  8. …and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link) ’No regrets’ CO2 abatement: 15% - 20%

  9. Integrated CGE model studies

  10. Bottom-up study in Taiyuan: Six clean coal and energy efficiency projects • Four projects at the Iron and Steel Company • District boiler house • Coal briquetting factory Mestl, Aunan, Fang, Seip, Skjelvik and Vennemo, J. Cleaner Production, 13 (2005), 57-70.

  11. Summary bottom-up studies in Shanxi: Health co-benefits of CO2 reductions often higher than costs

  12. Co-control potential for project types – lessons from China’s CDM project portfolio (Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

  13. Co-benefit of China’s CDM portfolio 2010 (€/tCO2eq) (Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

  14. Bottom-up studies on co-benefits

  15. 3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts Dirty household fuels affects rural and urban health • Rural China: 80%-90% of population weighted exposure is due to indoor air pollution from solid fuels • Urban China: 50-60% ΔPWE (μg/m3 PM10) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150 μg/m3) met in all households (urban and rural)

  16. Solid household fuel use in China – environment and development issues

  17. Modeling radiative forcing (RF) resulting from solid fuel burning in developing Asia • Global 3-D chemical transport model (Oslo-CTM2): Atmospheric burden of ozone, sulfate aerosols, and carbonaceous aerosols • Radiative transfer model: RF for BC, OC, and sulfate; TOA RF and global means (current and future integrated)

  18. Net global warming? Coal: Yes (due to CO2 primarily); Biomass: Do not know.. mWm-2yr Global average TOA integrated radiative forcing from emissions from solid fuel burning in Asian households (2000), 100 y time horizon (68% CI) (Aunan et al. 2009)

  19. Ideas for contribution to EU project • General: • Health impact assessment • RF from air pollutants • Study of impacts on GHG/air pollutants/population exposures from urbanization in China (e.g. alternative scenarios for transport; housing and household fuels; …) • China’s low-carbon strategies (province/city-level)

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