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Katherine Dickinson NCAR ISP Colloquium on African Weather and Climate July 29, 2011

Malaria in East Africa: Opportunities to Incorporate Weather and Climate Information into Ongoing Research. Katherine Dickinson NCAR ISP Colloquium on African Weather and Climate July 29, 2011.

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Katherine Dickinson NCAR ISP Colloquium on African Weather and Climate July 29, 2011

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  1. Malaria in East Africa: Opportunities to Incorporate Weather and Climate Information into Ongoing Research Katherine Dickinson NCAR ISP Colloquium on African Weather and Climate July 29, 2011

  2. Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST): Evaluating Health, Social and Environmental Impacts and Policy Tradeoffs (WHO-funded) Implementation Science to Optimize Malaria Vector Control and Disease Management (NIH-funded) Collaborators: Randall Kramer, Marie Lynn Miranda, and others at Duke University; WHO, Ministries of Health in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania; National Institute for Medical Research in TZ Malaria Control Research

  3. Seeking ways to improve malaria control outcomes Integrate vector control and disease management Multi-disciplinary approach: medicine, entomology, ecology, economics, risk analysis, biostatistics Multiple partners – universities, research centers, health ministries, international organizations Features of Both Projects

  4. First Project Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST): Evaluating Health, Social and Environmental Impacts and Policy Tradeoffs

  5. Influence Diagram Illustrating MDAST Structure

  6. Second Project Implementation Science to Optimize Malaria Vector Control and Disease Management (aka, Mvomero Project)

  7. Mvomero District, Tanzania Tanzania Mvomero District

  8. Study Design • N = 960 households in 24 villages (40 HH/village)

  9. Evaluate baseline and follow-up socio-economic conditions Evaluate baseline and post intervention parasitemia levels Assess spleen size via physical exam Thick and thin blood smears from finger-prick Test for anemia via a finger-prick, laboratory analysis Evaluate entomological conditions light traps, laboratory analysis Approach

  10. Improving decision support tools Can weather forecasts help to predict year-to-year variation in malaria outbreaks? Will climate change affect distribution of malaria and/or relative effectiveness of different interventions? Informing implementation science Can weather forecasts help to inform the optimal timing of interventions? Will accounting for the effects of weather/climate on disease improve estimates of interventions’ effects? Integrating Weather and Climate

  11. Examples of Malaria-Climate/Weather Research • Malaria Risk Maps

  12. Examples of Malaria-Climate/Weather Research • Malaria Risk Maps • Links between Climate Change and Malaria

  13. Examples of Malaria-Climate/Weather Research • Malaria Risk Maps • Links between Climate Change and Malaria • Malaria Early Warning Systems

  14. Global Change and Human Health, Volume 2, No. 1 (2001)

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