Visualizing Vulnerability

1. Visualizing Vulnerability Siiri Bigalke, Maria Cristina Del Valle, and Karen Yu Understanding Climate Change Impacts at Smith College ENV 312 | December 15, 2015 | Professor Smith

2. Presentation Overview • BackgroundVulnerability Approaches • MethodsSources Stakeholders Mapping • FindingsSeasonal Climatic Trends Impacts at Smith • Outcomes Recommendations ddddd.Story Map

3. “Greenland Melting” Rolling Stone Magazine July 25, 2013 End of Century Projected Surface Temperature Warming Climate Change: Global Implications Relative to Temperatures from 1980-1999 Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR 4, Figure SPM.6 based on A2 SRES Scenario The climate is changing. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR 4

4. The impacts will be local. Flooded BoathouseHurricane Irene, August 2011

5. Vulnerability is the “degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)

6. Approaching Climate Change Mitigation refers to actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. - United Nations Environmental Programme Adaptation is taking action to help communities adjust to climate change. - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Mitigation Adaptation

7. Methods

8. The Process 1) Collect Information: -Climate projections -Stakeholder knowledge 2) Create Maps: -Visualize impacts -Arranged by season 1) Build a Story Map: -Includes regional and local impacts 2) Inspire Action: -Further research -Adaptation planning Methods Outcomes

9. Methods: Our Sources

10. Smith College Media Relations Methods: Stakeholders University of Massachusetts Climate Systems Research Center Environmental Science and Policy Program Spatial Analysis Lab Five College Compliance and Risk Management Office of Campus Sustainability Smith College Emergency Response Team Botanic Garden Facilities Management The City of Northampton Geosciences Department

11. Methods: Mapping Software Used:ArcGIS Data Sources:Spatial Analysis Lab,City of Northampton ArcGIS Interface

12. Findings

13. Regional Overview: Observed Changes from 1991-2012 Regional Temperature Trends Increased by 2° F Over Last Century Regional Precipitation Trends Increased by 71% from 1958-2012

14. Regional Overview: Expected Changes

15. Fall Climatic Trends Higher Temperatures Increased Evapotranspiration More Drought Conditions Extreme Weather Events Shorter Fall

16. Fall Case Study $174,000 in Damages 285 Tree Damaged 42 Trees Removed Map 1: Trees Damaged During “Snowtober” Storm

17. Winter Climatic Trends Increased Temperatures + Increased Precipitation = Increased ExtremeSnow Events but Overall Reduced Snowpack

18. Winter Case Study Extreme Snow Events + Higher Temperatures = More DenseSnow Building damage from snow build up Map 2: Roof Type on Campus

19. Spring Climatic Trends IncreasedPrecipitation+Higher Temperatures =Starts and ends earlier

20. Spring Case Study Dikes + Flood Wall = Current Protective Measures West Street Flood Wall Map 3: 100 Year Floodplain of the Mill River

21. Summer Climatic Trends Higher Temperatures + Longer Summer More Hot Days over 90°F = More Drought + Extreme Rain

22. Summer Case Study Temperatures Energy Demand Cooling Equipment Efficiency Map 4: Air Conditioning Sources on Campus

23. Outcomes

24. Recommendations Winter Spring Summer Fall Prepare for minor floods and impact to areas near water bodies. Anticipate less heating needs, but more roof maintenance. Increase planning preparations with the Emergency Response Team. Anticipate higher cooling needs and prepare for heat events.

25. Recommendation: Adaptation Plan We recommend the college formulate strategies to address the impacts of climate change on the Smith College campus. To create an adaptation plan rooted in scientific understanding of climate change and localknowledge of our community.

26. Story Map

27. Elizabeth J. Carmichael, Director of Compliance and Risk Management • Michael Rawlins, University of Massachusetts Climate Systems Research Center • Jon Caris, Spatial Analysis Lab • Scott Gilman, Spatial Analysis Lab • Scott Graham, Deputy Chief Smith College Public Safety • Dano Weisbord, Office of Campus Sustainability • Emma Kerr, Office of Campus Sustainability • Stacey Schmeidel, Director of Media Relations • Grace Peralta ‘16 • Judith Roberge, Events Management Office • John Climie, Manager of Mechanical Trades, Facilities Management Professor Camille Washington-Ottombre, Environmental Science & Policy Program Professor Bob Newton, Geosciences Gary Hartwell, Facilities Management Andy Kuether, Geographic Information Systems Coordinator Anne Wibiralske, ES&P Program Coordinator Joanne Benkley, CEEDS Polly Ryan, Botanic Garden Wayne Feiden, Northampton Director of Planning and Sustainability Cheryl Obremski, Draftsperson/Engineering Aide, Facilities Management John Eue, Associate Vice President for Public Affairs David Smith, Director of Environmental Science & Policy Program Fellow ENV 312 Students Acknowledgements

28. Questions?

29. Sources - everyone http://homeguides.sfgate.com/pros-cons-flat-vs-pitched-roofing-6931.html https://storify.com/smithcollege/winter-storm-deposits-two-feet-of-snow-on-smith-co http://mapio.net/s/25477678/

30. Recommendations Winter Spring Summer Fall Prepare for minor floods and impact to areas near water bodies. Less heating needs, but more roof maintenance. Increase planning preparations with the Emergency Response Team. Anticipate higher cooling needs and preparations for heat events.

31. Regional Overview: Expected Changes Winter Spring Summer Fall Temperature: Increase Rainfall: Uncertain Outcomes: Warmer weather and earlier snow fall Temperature: Increase Rainfall: Increase Outcomes: More intense and frequentsnow events