Workforce Symposium 2015: Star Jobs

1. Forecasting Industry Employment Demand and Identifying Demand Occupations in Louisiana Workforce SymposiumDec 15 – 16, 2015 Workforce Symposium 2015: Star Jobs Transition Book Pg. 32

2. Occupational Forecasts – Short Term • 2016 Projection: • 2,106,700 • 3.9% growth • 1.3% average annual growth

3. Occupational Forecasts – Long Term • 2022 Projection: • 2,262,770 • 11.6 growth • 1.3% average annual growth • 1.1% National Growth

4. Background: Occupational Forecasting Reforms • The previous model was based solely on historical wage-record data– not forward looking and no industry inputs. • LWC, under the direction of the Workforce Investment Council (WIC), has expanded forecasting capabilities in partnership with Louisiana Economic Development, local workforce boards, business associations, and LSU to include: • Short-term and long-term projections • Industry and occupational breakouts • Statewide and regional analysis

5. Purpose • Provide a comprehensive view on anticipated employment trends in Louisiana • Identify and prioritize in-demand occupations • Required for use in LA Higher Education Funding Formula • Assist Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC), local Workforce Development Boards (WDBs), and Workforce and Innovation for a Stronger Economy (WISE) Council in allocating funds provided for workforce development • Aid students and job-seekers with career-planning

6. Our Partners • Louisiana Economic Development • Workforce Investment Council (WIC) • Local Workforce Boards • Business associations • LSU

7. Methodology – Big Picture • Occupation-level forecasting is a two-step process: • Industry-level forecasts using data thru 2014 • Project to 2017 (short-term) and 2024 (long-term) • Occupation-level forecasts, built from Industry-level • Also project short and long-term • Louisiana adds the step of building a Star Rating Systemby occupation • This presentation will briefly detail these steps

8. Industry-level Forecasts • Start with historical employment data in all industries for each region • 846 unique industry-regions, over 90 industries per region • LWC provides initial forecast using Standard Projections software • LSU builds on initial statistical approach by closely examining the drivers of growth that are particular to Louisiana

9. Industry-level Forecasts: Applying Louisiana-specific knowledge • Input from driver firms and industry groups: • Seek and incorporate input from the top 100+ employers in the state • Accounting for direct and indirect impact, these firms alone account for over 30% of employment in the state • Input from several agencies and industry groups is additionally incorporated: • e.g. LA Health Works Commission, LA Economic Development, LA Chemical Alliance, LMOGA, GBRIA, SLCUC, regional economic development groups • Crucial insights on multiple items in the overall process, including: • Hiring outlooks • Most important items driving hiring and expansion decisions • High-demand occupations • Turnover rates and occupations that are changing in relevance

10. Converting Industry to Occupation • Staffing Patterns • Ratio of occupations observed in each industry. LWC works with BLS to determine statewide patterns • Replacement Rates: Will Roofers be retiring at a higher rate in 2024? • Change Factors: Will Physician Assistant be hired at faster rate relative to other hires? • Driver Firms and Industry groups again provide valuable input • Alliance Safety Council: initial & refresher safety training over time, by age and occupation • LA State Board of Nursing Annual Report • Driver Firm engagement: overall Engineer/ Craft turnover rates

11. Occupational Forecasts: Converting Industry to Occupation • Apply Staffing Patterns to industry forecasts to yield occupational projections by industry • Sum across industries to yield total occupational projections • Review occupational forecasts (3,810 total forecasts) • Final approval by WIC/OFC • Published on www.laworks.net

12. Rating Occupations: Stars • LWC website provides info on available jobs: • Wages • Educational requirements • Star Rating • Star Rating: decision aidfor job-seekers, employers, and policy planners • Rates a job by “how well it pays, and the occupation’s outlook” • Intended to reflect opportunity offered by an occupation.

13. Star Rating Methodology • Four components considered for each occupation: • Long-term occupational hiring outlook • Short-term occupational hiring outlook • Current Job Openings • Wages (double weighted) • Each occupation is assigned between 1-10 points based on the four factors.

14. Star Rating System: Structure • Star Rating components for each occupation: • Short-term outlook • Long-term outlook • Current Openings • Wages – weighted twice • Growth Rule • If the long-term growth openings and the prior year job openings are below the 40th percentile then the occupation cannot be more than 2 star. • Convert the average of component rankings to Stars

15. Who Else Uses Star Jobs? • As one of the most robust forecasting models in the nation, Star Jobs is now being used by: • LCTCS • Board of Regents • Department of Education • JumpStart Career Pathways Review Panel • TOPS Tech • Workforce and Innovation for a Stronger Economy (WISE) • Industry-Based Certifications (IBC) Council • to make critical programmatic decisions.

16. How Can You Help? • Provide timely inputs for regional industry and occupational projections through dialogue with regional partners (economic development and industry). • Review regional and statewide Star Ratings and provide inputs on any revisions based on local demand. • Monitor new developments in the region and provide inputs to change occupational ratings based on emerging demand. • Communicate with employers to advertise more with LWC in order for occupation to get better stars.