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Our Asian Crisis Track Record : Both Bear

Hong Kong 1997. Hong Kong 1997. ,000. ,000. ,000. ,000. 17. 17. 12. 12. Sell. 15. 15. 11. 11. 13. 13. 10. 10. End Year Forecast : 12,000 End Year Consensus : +16,000 Actual : 10,723. 11. 11. 9. - 25% In 10 Weeks. 9. Buy. 9. 9. 8. 8. Oct.

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Our Asian Crisis Track Record : Both Bear

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  1. Hong Kong 1997 Hong Kong 1997 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 17 17 12 12 Sell 15 15 11 11 13 13 10 10 End Year Forecast : 12,000 End Year Consensus : +16,000 Actual : 10,723 11 11 9 - 25% In 10 Weeks 9 Buy 9 9 8 8 Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Dec Our Asian Crisis Track Record :Both Bear Forecast Hang Seng Would Fall to 8,000 Underweighted Market When Consensus “Maximum” Bullish

  2. Thailand 1996 Indonesia 1997 - 1998 1400 1400 750 750 Sell Sell 650 650 1000 1000 550 550 Buy - 39% Over 3 Months 600 600 450 450 350 -53% Over 12 Months 350 - 77% 200 200 250 250 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998 After the Initial Crisis : Double Underweight First to Call Thailand a Sell : 14 Months Before Asian Crisis

  3. Hong Kong/China 1997 Hong Kong 1996 5500 5500 110 110 Sell 90 90 AVOID 4500 4500 -58% 70 70 Sun Hung Kai Properties 3500 3500 50 50 2500 2500 - 70% Over 2 Years 30 30 Jan Dec 1996 1997 1998 First to Call Hong Kong an Asset Bubble 12 Months Before it Burst Warned Against Red Chip Mania

  4. Taiwan 1996 - 1997 China 1998 - 2001 ,000 ,000 11 11 2400 2400 10 10 2000 2000 8 8 1600 1600 + 60% 6 6 1200 + 74% 1200 4 4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 … And Bull Calls Heavily Over Weighted Asia’s Only Positive Performer Over 1996-1997 First to Call China Recovery

  5. Philippines 1998 Korea 1998 - 1999 2400 1100 2400 1100 900 900 2000 2000 700 700 + 232% 1600 1600 500 500 Buy 1200 1200 300 300 1000 200 1000 200 Sept 1998 Jan 1999 Safer Haven : Overweighted Asia’s Only Market to End 1998 Higher Favourite Market : Best Asian Performer over 15 Months Source: DATASTREAM

  6. Indonesia 1999 Thailand 1998 - 1999 550 750 750 550 Sell Sell 650 650 450 450 550 550 Buy + 68% 350 350 + 40% Over 3 Months Also Rupiah + 25% 450 450 Buy 250 250 Source: DATASTREAM 200 350 350 200 1998 1999 1999 2000 Caught Indonesian Rebound Sold Ahead of Disappointment Caught Thai Rebound Sold Ahead of Disappointment

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