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Enjeux 2014

Enjeux 2014 European Elections European Elections: Initial analysis of the results N°2 – 28 May 2014 We told you “this year would be different”…. Enjeux 2014.

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Enjeux 2014

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  1. Enjeux 2014 European Elections European Elections: Initial analysis of the results N°2 – 28 May 2014 We told you “this year would be different”… Enjeux 2014 The polls have closed, the votes have largely been counted, but the shock waves produced by the 2014 election are still rippling around Europe. The unease and confusion manifested has produced a Parliament in composition unlike any previous legislature: the “traditional” political groups have lost ground, or at best have barely improved their position, while the far-right and Eurosceptics have garnered all the publicity. This has produced a Parliament which would appear to be polarized to the left and right and especially between Europhiles and Eurosceptics. This controversy will continue and will be reflected in the appointment of the major positions in the European Institutions – starting with the successor to José-Manuel Barroso as President of the European Commission. The first indications from yesterday’s European Council and European Parliament Conference of Presidents are that the political “earthquake” will continue to produce aftershocks for some time to come. How this will translate into policy will depend on several factors: can the far right and Eurosceptics organize themselves into effective political groups? Can the centre-left and centre-right parties resurrect a grand coalition? For those engaged in following and influencing policy development one thing is already clear: new strategies and working methods will have to meet the challenge of a Parliament composed of more populists, who are avowedly against traditional policy development. We will have to work differently (and harder) to make our voice heard! This second edition of Enjeux 2014 gives an initial country-by country analysis of the results, together with a practical guide to the next steps in the complicated process towards building the new Commission and Parliament. Further editions will look in more detail at the results and implications and will report developments as they occur. The Havas Public Affairs Brussels team N°2 Havas Public Affairs Brussels Tel.: +32 2 234 69 80 – 1 Bvd Charlemagne – 1040 Bruxelles Andrew.Johnson@havasww.com

  2. European elections Overall analysis A Eurosceptic / Far Right tidal wave as the French Front National, came third, with 19.7% of the votes (12,7% in 2009). In Germany the anti-European and anti-euro party Alternative für Deutschland, only created in spring 2013, entered the European Parliament with 7 seats. In Italy the 5Star movement and the Lega Nord have both won new seats and the Greek neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn, achieving 9.38% of the votes, will send three MEPs to Brussels. Elsewhere in Europe, far-right and Eurosceptic parties have made considerable, even massive progress. In the UK and Denmark, the euroceptic and nationalist parties have won their respective elections. Nigel Farage’s UKIP scored a historic victory over the Conservatives and Labour, with 26.77%. The Danish People’s Party, with an anti-immigration agenda, has also won an important victory, with 26.9 %. In Austria the extreme-right FPÖ, which aims to build an alliance with other groups, such The turnout remaining broadly stable in the European Union as a whole (43.09%), the 2014 European Parliament elections have been marked by a strong wave of Euroscepticism. “A populist earthquake”! – the Financial Times; “An electoral shock in France” according to Germany’s Bild Zeitung, “Avalanche” – Corriere della Sera. These are the terms used by the Press to describe the unprecedented score of the Front National in France, which gained almost 25% of votes, Enjeux 2014 Majority preserved for the three principal political groups Despite having lost a considerable number of seats the three largest Groups (PPE, S&D, ALDE) have maintained their dominance (2/3 of seats). Although it has lost around 60 seats, the EPP group (centre right) will remain the largest Group with 213 seats (28.36%). The Socialist and Democrats Group (S&D) also lost some ground, reducing from 196-191 seats (25.43%). The Liberal Even with the great increase in the Eurosceptic vote and the increased polarization within the Parliament between Groups, the global balance remains the same: although Eurosceptic Groups will hold between 20-25% of the 751 seats, much will depend on their ability to work together to effectively influence the direction of policy. ALDE group lost 19 seats, keeping 64 seats (8.52%). The Greens also decreased their share to 6.92% (52 seats, reduced from 57). The conservative ECR won 46 seats (6.13%), a loss of 11 seats. Only the United Left GUE, Eurosceptic EFD and non attached Groups increased their seats. The GUE increased from 35-42 seats, the EFD from 31-38 seats and the Non-attached from 33-41. N°2

  3. European elections Overall results 2014 2014 2009 Source: European Parliament Enjeux 2014 N°2 Source: European Parliament

  4. Member state analysis Far-right gain ground, but come in third Enjeux 2014 N°2

  5. Member state analysis The rise of the Flemish nationalists Enjeux 2014 Victory for the Centre-Right N°2

  6. Member state analysis Low turnout for the first EU elections Enjeux 2014 Parties retain their seats N°2

  7. Member state analysis Liberals in the lead Enjeux 2014 N°2

  8. Member state analysis Victory for the Danish People’s Party Enjeux 2014 Liberals carry the day N°2

  9. Member state analysis The Right in the lead Enjeux 2014 Historic victory for the far-right N°2

  10. Member state analysis A number of well-known French MEPs have not been re-elected, including: Enjeux 2014 The CDU leads – with a reduced mandate N°2

  11. Member state analysis Rise of extremism in Greece Enjeux 2014 Wide victory for the Conservatives of Orban N°2

  12. Member state analysis Independants in the lead Enjeux 2014 Spectacular victory for the Democratic party N°2

  13. Member state analysis Victory for the conservatives Enjeux 2014 A tight five-way battle N°2

  14. Member state analysis Little change in the Status Quo Enjeux 2014 The Labour Party maintaining its dominance N°2

  15. Member state analysis Geert Wilders loses ground Enjeux 2014 Conservatives and Eurosceptics neck to neck N°2

  16. Member state analysis The Socialists oposition narrowly heads the government coalition Enjeux 2014 The Centre-Left coalition remains in the lead N°2

  17. Member state analysis Widspread apathy leads the lowest turnout in the EU Enjeux 2014 Conservatives lead the polls N°2 17

  18. Member state analysis Conservatives and Socialists lose ground Enjeux 2014 Social Democrats and Greens in the driving seat N°2

  19. Member state analysis UKIP in historic victory Enjeux 2014 N°2

  20. Towards a new Commission President Enjeux 2014 N°2

  21. Next steps Enjeux 2014 N°2

  22. Timetable Next steps The definitive results are expected in the next couple of days. From 27 May the Political Groups will start the difficult and delicate process towards choosing a Commission President and from there the other principal posts of the European Institutions. Enjeux 2014 N°2

  23. Havas Worldwide Public Affairs Brussels’ multidisciplinary and multilingual team of consultants brings our expertise to bear on a wide range of sectors. Our practice provides a full range of public affairs and public relations services to both the pan-European and Belgian domestic markets (covering the Flemish, French and German-language communities). Working out of our office in the heart of the European district, we are in daily contact with the key technical and political decision makers and stakeholders who shape opinion in all aspects of EU policymaking: the European institutions, member state representations (national and local bodies), NGOs and the private sector. We offer our public affairs clients a full range of communication, including: • Crisis management • Intelligence • Impact analysis • Issues monitoring and management • Lobbying and advocacy campaigns • Direct media relations • Media and political training • Strategic communications Our areas of expertise include EU policy relating to all aspects of the free movement of goods and services; chemicals; consumer protection, environmental policy, antitrust and competition policy; international trade; health; and food safety. We have particular expertise in the following sectors: financial and other services; food production; retailing; cosmetics and the luxury sectors; high-tech, IT and telecom; pharmaceutical and healthcare; and gambling services. Our agency’s public relations services include audiovisual, digital communications, events, healthcare and nutritional communications, and media training. Enjeux 2014 Havas Public Affairs Brussels Tel.: +32 2 234 69 80 – 1 Bvd Charlemagne – 1040 Bruxelles Andrew.Johnson@havasww.com

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