Enjeux 2014

1. Enjeux 2014 European Elections The EU institutional changeover: campaign N°1 – 23 May 2014 “This year, it is different!” With a few days to go before the EU institutional changeover, speculation as to potential candidates for the Presidency of the European Commission is already mounting. The first issue of ENJEUX 2014 provides an overview of European personalities, key issues and a timetable of the coming main events. The outgoing mandate has been marked by an unprecedented range of crises, financial, economic, social and political, the most fundamental being the crisis that has caused the destabilisation of the euro zone, the collapse of the Greek economy and the numerous rescue operations especially in Spain, Italy and Portugal. The Union’s record balancing reactivity as regards the rescue of the Euro and the strengthening of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and reforms, especially regarding financial services, could be an argument to promote the need for the Union to the electorate. However, it is necessary to have the will and the political weight to do so. Could it be possible that the European political parties succeed in promoting a unified message to their national parties, that they define a clear programme and they succeed in having on of “their” candidates appointed as President of the Commission? This is the declared ambition of all institutions at this stage in the process. But national interests could overshadow the ambition. This first edition will be focused on the key developments, political and institutional, and will form the first of a series of briefings which we hope will prove to be an insightful guide to the landscape as it develops in the decisive year ahead. The Havas Public Affairs Brussels team Enjeux 2014 N°1 Havas Public Affairs Brussels Tel.: +32 2 234 69 80 – 1 Bvd Charlemagne – 1040 Bruxelles Andrew.Johnson@havasww.com

2. Europeanelections A difficultelectoralclimate for EU Among the specific policy areas, climate policy is an issue in which the EU is expected to lead in the international fora. Questions about social policy will be a point of concern for numerous Member States and there remains a risk of creating anti-EU sentiments along the way. Furthermore, resentment and loss of confidence in the EU project by many Europeans is likely to result in massive abstention and votes at the extremes of the political spectrum (although this is not a completely novel scenario). Both would demonstrate a rejection of the EU by its citizens, at a time when improving European integration and solidarity between states is more than ever the key to the survival of the EU. These elections are the first following the Eurozone crisis. They could provide an opportunity for the EU to re-orientate itself towards its future. The crisis in confidence in EU Member States must still be addressed, especially but not exclusively in the United Kingdom, with a referendum in membership of the EU proposed by the present government. « Europe willbebuilt by crisis… It willbe the sum of solutions brought to these crises » Jean Monnet, in Mémoires In a few figures Enjeux 2014 1979first European elections 388million voters 751 MEPs to be elected 28countries to vote 5% minimum threshold required for a political group to be elected 25deputies from 7EU member states are needed to set up a new parliamentary group

3. Main challenges The abstention The main feature of the 2014 European elections might not be the victory of a particular group, but rather the rate of abstention. Turnout in European elections has fallen consistently over the past four decades from just over 60% in 1979 to 43% in 2009. • Can the trend be reversed ? • There are hopes that this time round the trend may be reversed. • This optimism is based on two main factors: • The fact that with the economic and financial crisis, European decision making has loomed larger in people’s lives, giving rise to stronger pro and anti-EU sentiment. One of the result is that people have become aware of Europe and aware of its importance. • The politisation of this campaign with the indirect election of the President of the European Commission. This should increase the political challenge and democratic process of these elections. Why is the turnout in European elections so low? • The lack of information: after the 2009 contest, the Commission conducted a public opinion survey to try to identify ways to boost turnout. Over 80% of the respondents called for more information on the impact of the EU on their daily lives, on the candidates’ political programmes and on the work and powers of Parliament itself. • A general trend: the declining turnout in European elections is similar to the decline in turnout in national and local elections in many member states over the same period. Enjeux 2014 Socialists campaign to increase turnout European Socialists specifically targeted 5% of the electorate who did not vote in the 2009 European elections in a bid to increase their score. With the help of 20,000 volunteers across the Union they contacted at least 12 million voters who decided not to go to the polls five years ago to persuade them to do so this time.

4. Main challenges The creation of a far-right Group in the EuropeanParliament? Possible creation of a far right Group… Current forecasts predict that the National Front will win 16 seats in the European Parliament, out of 74 seats reserved for France. This would make it the biggest French party delegation in Strasbourg, and would put Marine Le Pen in a strong position to form a far-right parliamentary group. She recently declared on French television that she wanted to be the vice-president of a new far-right group in the European Parliament. 25 deputies coming from a quarter of the EU’s 28 member states (7 member states) are needed to set up a new parliamentary group. Membership of a political group improves the opportunity to influence legislative work, for instance by drafting reports or opinions. Marine Le Pen, the President of the French FN is already casting her net all over Europe looking for allies. According to recent polls, the Eurosceptics could win between 130 and 200 of the 751 seats – if the far left, far right, populists, nationalists and anti-euro parties are combined. Furthermore, a new far-right political Group may emerge. France’s National Front party tops the EU election surveys as well as the Dutch PVV party. Enjeux 2014 The question is how homogeneous is this faction. Far-right deputies in the European Parliament (numbering about 50 in the current 766-seat parliament) are currently split between different factions or are unaligned and isolated. Some parties have completely refused any alliance with the National Front, including the British Despitedeep divisions euroscepticparty UKIP, and the German Alternatiffür Deutschland (AfD). At the same time, the FN has chosen to distance itself from other far-right European parties that it deems too extremist, such as Greece’s neo-Nazi Golden Dawn. Other parties are still on the fence, such as the Swedish Democrats. One of the FN’s main problems will be finding common ground between the seven nationalities required to form a group. This leaves Marine Le Pen with a short list of likely allies, including the Freedom Party of Austria, the VlaamsBelang from Belgium, the Northern League from Italy, Order and justice from Lithuania or even the Slovak National Party. A far right group: then what? As the Eurosceptics have not yet demonstrated strong interest in the legislative work of the Parliament, the amendments will continue to be produced by a coalition of pro-Europeans. Andrew Duff, a long-time British Liberal Democrat MEP has warned that, with a reduced majority, pro-European groups will have to enforce voting discipline far more than is currently the case. Abstention and dissidence will play into the hands of the anti-Europeans.

5. Main challenges The election of the President of the European Commission ‘This time, it’s different’, proclaims the European Parliament, hoping to encourage voters to go to the polls in the upcoming European elections. This year, not only will voters be able to vote for their favourite MEP but they will also have the opportunity to participate (indirectly) in the designation of the future European Commission president. agree (in advance) on the final candidate so that a final vote is guaranteed during the first week of July. The fact is that nothing will be really automatic or transparent. The five Group candidates stressed they would block all progress if the Council nominates someone other than an official Group candidate. However, Council President Herman Van Rompuy has reiterated his personal reservations about the 'Spitzenkandidaten' concept for the EU elections, stressing that the next EU Commission president “needs a large majority in the Council too”. “We have to respect the Treaty when appointing the next European Commission president” Van Rompuy told the Belgian public broadcaster VRT on 18 May. For the first time in EU history, the top candidates of the different political families will compete with each other. Citizens will thus have a choice between different persons and programmesthroughout Europe. The winner has a good chance of leading the next European Commission. Consequently, the European elections have been significantly upgraded in importance. “There must be a simple majority in Parliament, 376 votes. And there must be a large majority in the European Council of heads of states,” Van Rompuy said, underlining the necessity for the next Commission President to win the backing of both institutions. His comments point to what could quickly escalate into the mother of all institutional clashes between the Council and Parliament. If the Council chooses a candidate that is not on Parliament's shortlist, it would be seen as a declaration of institutional war. German Chancellor Angela Merkel allegedly told the centre-right candidate Jean-Claude Juncker that she would support his candidacy if he wins the elections. In practice, though, things will not be quite that simple. In fact, nothing within the EU treaties make that scenario compulsory. The Post-Lisbon Treaty of the European Union provides: “taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose to the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members” (Article 17, par. 7). It is not clear that the Council must chose the candidate of the “winning” political group. Member states and MEPs are therefore going to have to Enjeux 2014 Possible scenarios -Trench warfare: drawn- out inter institutional conflict -Orderly retreat of the Council: solution by mid-June - Blitzkrieg: European Parliament victory in 2 days

6. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates ‘ Enjeux 2014

7. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates Centre-Right candidate - Jean-Claude Juncker Enjeux 2014 Campaign The campaign has not been easy for this candidate who has been critisedfor his record. If his party wins he has promised a Commission “far more politicised” “with action men rather than civil servants” . He has committed to “addressing major issues and showing restraint on small issues” His propositions: -Austerity measures. -From reform to growth through anticyclical policies. -Building a trustful transatlantic partnership. -Building a social market economy to combine freedom and solidarity. -Ensuring data protection as a human right. -Stopping the EU enlargement .

8. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates Socialist candidate - Martin Schulz Enjeux 2014 • Campaign • Martin Schulz led a strong 2.0 campaign. The S&D campaign has been mainly based on the door-to-door campaign: on both real and virtual doors through the“#Knockthevote” campaign on Twitter. He has mainly been criticized during this campaign on the fact that he has never fulfilled any executive responsibility. • His propositions: • Social justice. • Creating a European minimum wage proportional to the GDP of each member state. • Fighting social and fiscal dumping. • Promoting jobs and growth. • Reforming financial markets. • Fighting climate change. • Championing equality and creating a stronger and more democratic Europe.

9. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates Liberal candidate - Guy Verhofstadt Enjeux 2014 Campaign Guy Verhofstadt is a powerful orator with a clear message, which he delivers in five EU languages. Even though there is no chance for the ALDE to win the European elections, he sees himself as the “compromise candidate” if the two leader parties cannot decide who should take the Commission Presidency. In 2004 he was already the leading candidate for the post, but was unceremoniously vetoed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on account of his federalist viewpoint. His propositions -A more integrated Europe. -Data protection. -Completing the single market. -A fiscal and social convergence programme for the next 5 years. -Giving the initiative power to the European Parliament. -A more democratic Europe.

10. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates The Greens tandem – Ska Keller and José Bové Enjeux 2014 Campaign While Ska Keller was first running for the post in a tandem with José Bové, the European Green Party finally chose her to represent the party in the several debates with the other candidates. Her age and sex have undoubtedly played a role in that choice. Comments after her speech on inter-candidate debate on 15 May were very complimentary. “Change Europe. Vote Green.” is the slogan for the party. Their propositions: - Fight against austerity. - Youth unemployment. - Security and surveillance issues, including online data protection.

11. European Commission Presidency One seat, 6 candidates The Far-left candidate - Alexis Tsipras Enjeux 2014 Campaign While the other four candidates are all from the Brussels beltway, Tsipras is from the outside. It was hoped he could inject a dose of reality in what have sometimes felt like very ‘inside the bubble' conversations among these other candidates. Nonetheless, Tsipras was accused of bringing little European value to the discussion during the last debate, focusing on his own national campaign in Greece. Another barrier was that of the language: though the candidates had been asked to speak in English, Tsipraspreferred to speak in Greek. His propositions - A radical reform. -More solidarity and the end of austerity. -Defeating youth unemployment. -Set the ecological transformation of production. -Reform the European immigration framework.

12. Polls • What the polls say? Last PollWatchsurvey – 20 May 2014 Enjeux 2014 EP political groups leading

13. Announcement of the result of the elections • Sunday, 25 May The European Parliament announced that the European election results will be published on its website on Sunday, 25 May 2014. In a live interactive event, the results, collected from all member states, will be presented in an open data format. The first estimation at the European level will be published from about 22:00 CEST. The last polling stations will close at 23:00 CEST on 25 May 2014 and the first preliminary results both at European and national levels will be available from about the same time. The data, offered in open format, includes EU-wide and national election results for both 2009 and 2014, turnout, seats by political group and member state, and the number of male and female MEPs. Enjeux 2014 Platform Elections night 2014 The European Parliament has created a platform in order to put online exit national polls as well as comments from politicians. The platform can be found here: www.electionsnight2014.eu.

14. Timetable What’s next? Enjeux 2014

15. Timetable What’s next? Enjeux 2014

16. Havas Worldwide Public Affairs Brussels’ multidisciplinary and multilingual team of consultants brings our expertise to bear on a wide range of sectors. Our practice provides a full range of public affairs and public relations services to both the pan-European and Belgian domestic markets (covering the Flemish, French and German-language communities). • Working out of our office in the heart of the European district, we are in daily contact with the key technical and political decision makers and stakeholders who shape opinion in all aspects of EU policymaking: the European institutions, member state representations (national and local bodies), NGOs and the private sector. • We offer our public affairs clients a full range of communication, including: • Crisis management • Intelligence • Impact analysis • Issues monitoring and management • Lobbying and advocacy campaigns • Direct media relations • Media and political training • Strategic communications • Our areas of expertise include EU policy relating to all aspects of the free movement of goods and services; chemicals; consumer protection, environmental policy, antitrust and competition policy; international trade; health; and food safety. We have particular expertise in the following sectors: financial and other services; food production; retailing; cosmetics and the luxury sectors; high-tech, IT and telecom; pharmaceutical and healthcare; and gambling services. • Our agency’s public relations services include audiovisual, digital communications, events, healthcare and nutritional communications, and media training. Enjeux 2014 Havas Public Affairs Brussels Tel.: +32 2 234 69 80 – 1 Bvd Charlemagne – 1040 Bruxelles Andrew.Johnson@havasww.com