World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water WMO EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1, Rep. 3.1 Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce Better Weather Forecasts and Warnings Expected Result 1 Strategic Thrust: Science and Technology Development and Implementation WMO; WDS www.wmo.int

2. ER 1: Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce Better Weather Forecasts and Warnings (Para. 3.1.1) WMO • Continued investments by Members are enhancing capabilities in weather forecasting and in producing better weather warnings. • The Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) continued to steadily advance, in increasing resolution, forecast lead-time and accuracy, as well as in widening scope of applications to benefit the services provided by Members to an increasing number of socio-economic and environmental sectors. • Research continued to both pave the way ahead to the next generation of forecasting and assessment systems as well as to enhance the transfer of proven technologies into the operational environment. • The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project continued to expand and has been adopted as a vehicle of choice for building Members’ capacity for forecasting meteorological hazards, for providing warning services and for making substantial contributions to Disaster Risk Reduction through inter-programme and inter-commission collaboration, and by responding to a variety of regional needs. EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 2

3. ER 1: Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce Better Weather Forecasts and Warnings WMO • Issues to be discussed: • Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical • Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems • Increasing the number of new and advanced scientific tools in operational • forecasting especially in warnings of hazards • Technology transfer and transition from research to operational forecasting • Research and development of next generation forecast and assessment • systems EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 3

4. ER 1: Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce Better Weather Forecasts and Warnings WMO • Content provided by the following WMO Programmes: • Data-processing and Forecasting System (DPFS) • Aeronautical Meteorology (AeM) Programme • Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) • Marine Meteorology and Oceanography (MMO) Programme • World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 4

5. ER 1: Enhanced Capabilities of Members to Produce Better Weather Forecasts and Warnings WMO • Executive Council is requested to: • To adopt CBS Recommendation 1 (CBS-10) on an amendment to the WMO • Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (WMO-No. 485) • To endorse a number of programme initiatives and recommendations of the • EC WG DRR & SD, CAeM, JCOMM and CAS • To take decisions on recommendations and requests contained in the draft text • for inclusion in the general summary of EC-LXII EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 5

6. Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems (Paragraphs 3.1.2 – 3.1.25) WMO • Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP): (Paragraphs 3.1.2 – 3.1.10) • SWFDP in progress in Southern Africa and South Pacific Islands; in development in Southeast • Asia; other regions are under consideration • Ensure long-term sustainability of benefits gained, including continual improvement of mature • projects and expansion and implementation of the SWFDP through all RAs • Use SWFDP as a framework or project development process for regionally-driven initiatives for • multi-hazard DRR and Service Delivery • Relevant programmes and technical commissions to collaborate synergistically and cost- • effectively to create and implement regional projects with a multi-hazard early-warning system’s • approach, recognizing specific regional needs • Funds necessary to extend existing SWFDP projects and to commence new ones EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 6

7. Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems (Paragraphs 3.1.2 – 3.1.25) WMO • Operational Weather Forecasting: (Paragraph 3.1.11) • Ensure that meteorological observations be routinely collected and disseminated via the GTS • to further improve weather forecasting • Members to participate in verification projects, including by contributing with any additional • observational data and information related to the impact of severe weather and weather-related • hazards • Manual on the GDPFS: (Paragraph 3.1.12 and Draft Resolution 3.1/1) • Council to approve for implementation the amendment to the Manual on the GDPFS, Vol. I, • related to the designation of CPTEC as a GPC for LRF • Cooperation among Technical Commissions: (Paragraphs 3.1.13 – 3.1.14) • GPCs for LRF to play a significant role in providing global climate predictions from seasonal • to longer time-scales within the context of the proposed GFCS EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 7

8. Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems (Paragraphs 3.1.2 – 3.1.25) WMO • Aeronautical Meteorology – aviation forecasting: (Paragraphs 3.1.15 – 3.1.21) • Concept of new “Meteorological Services for the Terminal Area”; • Based on existing projects in a number of Members; • Members encouraged to follow the development of these services as they could be considered a gateway to new Global Air Traffic Management projects that relied on advanced net-centric, data-driven service provision; • ICAO Meteorological Warnings Study Group (METWSG) proposed to establish a trial for the provision of advisory messages prepared by lead States; • Advisory messages will support the issuance of SIGMET for convection, turbulence and icing (similar to those on volcanic ash and tropical cyclones provided by relevant VAACs and TCACs, respectively); and, • Members to ensure full cooperation with such trial advisory centres during the tests period planned to take place in 2011. EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 8

9. Improved quality, greater availability and more effective use of Numerical Weather Prediction products, including those of Ensemble Prediction Systems (Paragraphs 3.1.2 – 3.1.25) WMO • Support to Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting: (Paragraphs 3.1.22 – 3.1.24) • Increasing need for including uncertainty information in the forecasts for more effective disaster • risk assessment. Members to enhance the application of ensemble techniques and probabilistic • forecasts • R&D, and technology transfer to operational forecasting to improve the forecasting of rapid • changes in tropical cyclone intensity and movement in the proximity of a coast • Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting to be updated for a multi-hazard perspective • (web-based); and to be linked to the WMO Tropical Cyclone Forecasters’ Web site and other • web sites containing related information, especially on flooding and storm surge • Support to Operational Marine Meteorological Forecasting: (Paragraph 3.1.25) • Members to make maximum use of freely available wave forecasts • Capacity-building activities to promote the use of these products • Feedback on the quality and utility of such products EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 9

10. Technology Transfer and Transition from Research to Operational Forecasting (Paragraphs 3.1.26 – 3.1.28) WMO • Marine Meteorological Forecasting, Products and Services: (Paragraphs 3.1.26 – 3.1.28) • Ocean analysis and forecasting had shown rapid progress with the availability of additional • ocean observations. Members to pursue the outcomes of the OceanObs’09 Conference • JCOMM/CHy Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (CIFDP) for building improved • operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation from combined extreme • waves, surges and river flooding events • Members and involved programmes to closely collaborate and make available the state-of- • the-art of their meteorological, hydrological and met-ocean products and capacities • Make use of existing frameworks or projects, including the SWFDP, especially in coastal • inundation-prone regions where the SWFDP had been implemented • English version of the first edition of the JCOMM Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting to be • finalized and published shortly EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 10

11. Research and Development of Next Generation Forecast and Assessment Systems (Paragraphs 3.1.29 – 3.1.58) WMO • Research Projects on: • Nowcasting (Paragraphs 3.1.32 – 3.1.34) • Mesoscale Forecasting (Paragraphs 3.1.35 – 3.1.37) • Tropical Meteorologial Research (Paragraphs 3.1.38 – 3.1.40) • THORPEX (Paragraphs 3.1.41 – 3.1.52) • Forecast Verification and strategies for Assessing Forecast Skill for High Impact Weather • (Paragraphs 3.1.53 – 3.1.55) • Numerical Experimentation(Paragraphs 3.1.56 – 3.1.58) • Expansion of successful projects to other regions • Members to further support and participate in WWRP projects and initiatives • Further coordination and collaboration with other projects, programmes and • technical commissions • A THORPEX Polar project be established as a legacy of the IPY • Support priorities and work programme as defined by CAS-XV EC-LXII/Doc. 3.1 and Rep. 3.1 11