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Frost Forecasting for Lettuce Fields in Yuma, Arizona

Frost Forecasting for Lettuce Fields in Yuma, Arizona. Nick Dawson Soil, Water, and Environmental Sciences Department Advisor: Dr. Paul Brown. Outline. Background Model description Test cases Experimental m odel Results Future work. Why Do We Care?. > 90% winter production

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Frost Forecasting for Lettuce Fields in Yuma, Arizona

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  1. Frost Forecasting for Lettuce Fields in Yuma, Arizona Nick Dawson Soil, Water, and Environmental Sciences Department Advisor: Dr. Paul Brown

  2. Outline • Background • Model description • Test cases • Experimental model • Results • Future work

  3. Why Do We Care? • > 90% winter production • 450 million dollars • Consumer prices • 1000% price hike

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model • WRF • 1.8 km resolution • 27 hour forecasts • 5am – 8am • Winter 2010/11 • ~4 C too warm

  5. Resolution Comparison

  6. Case Study Days for Trials • 5 case study days • Above freezing/humid • Above/dry • Below/humid • Below/dry • Cold advective • 5 weather station sites

  7. Default Land Use Classification Urban (Yuma) Crop Fields Forest

  8. Default Revised

  9. Input Files • Look-up Tables • VF = vegetation fraction • SMC = soil moisture content Trial Setup

  10. Trial Results

  11. Experimental Model • 60% VF • 0.32 SMC • Updated Land Use

  12. Results

  13. Coldest 15-minute Temperature Scatter Plots 1 December 2011 – 15 January 2012

  14. Results in Action • 7am temperatures • GFS and NAM • 51 hr forecast movie http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/LIF.htm

  15. Future Work • Post forecast products • Bi-weekly VF updates • Lettuce leaf temperature forecast

  16. Review • Big/important business • Identified model issues • Improved ~ 3 degrees Celsius

  17. Frost Forecasting for Lettuce Fields In Yuma, Arizona • Questions? • Selected references: Deardorff, J. W., 1978. Efficient Prediction of Ground Surface Temperature and Moisture, With Inclusion of a Layer of Vegetation. J. Geo Research, 83, 1889-1903. Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grunmann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003. Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 22 PP, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296. Hogue, T.S., L. Bastidas, H Gupta, S. Sorooshian, K. Mitchell, W. Emmerich, 2005. Evaluation and Transferability of the Noah Land Surface Mode in Semiarid Environments. J. Hydrometeor, 6, 68-84. Prabhakaran, T., G. Hoogenboom, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, 2008. Evaluation of WRF for frost warning and consequences of cold air pooling. J. Compute. Electron. Agric., 64, 234-347. Wilks, D. S., 2006. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Burlington, MA [etc.]: Academic Press.

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