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Recent Forecast Impact Results from WSR and ATREC

Recent Forecast Impact Results from WSR and ATREC. Lacey Holland SAIC/EMC/NCEP (now NCAR) Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS Sharan Majumdar Univ. Miami Yucheng Song IMSG/EMC/NCEP Lidar workshop, Sedona, Arizona. Acknowledgements.

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Recent Forecast Impact Results from WSR and ATREC

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  1. Recent Forecast Impact Results from WSR and ATREC Lacey Holland SAIC/EMC/NCEP (now NCAR) Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS Sharan Majumdar Univ. Miami Yucheng Song IMSG/EMC/NCEP Lidar workshop, Sedona, Arizona

  2. Acknowledgements • NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs • NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews • Roy Smith (NCO/NCEP/NWS) • CARCAH (John Pavone) • Jack Woollen - EMC • Russ Treadon - EMC • Mark Iredell - EMC • Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland • Craig Bishop - NRL • + others who have contributed!

  3. About the A-TReC • 15 October – 17 December 2003 • Observing platforms: AMDAR, ASAP ships, GOES rapid-scan winds, extra radiosondes, aircraft (DLR Falcon, USAF C-130, NOAA G-IV, UND Citation) • Observations were selected using a variety of adaptive observing strategies run daily in USA and Europe (ETKF, total energy singular vectors, Hessian singular vectors, adjoint)

  4. A-TReC Case 23 Top: ETKF summary map and signal variance evolution Bottom: ECMWF TESV summary

  5. Results for Surface Pressure Of all cases: 35 improved 2 neutral 10 degraded

  6. Evaluation methodology • Compare analysis and forecast cycles from the GFS at T126L28 resolution including all operationally available data (includes dropsondes); the other excludes only dropsonde data - to evaluate the data impact • Verify against observations over the pre-selected area of interest (verification region) • Rawinsonde observations for surface pressure, 1000-250 hPa temperature, and other fields • Rain gauge data for precipitation

  7. Results for Temperature Of all cases: 42 improved 0 neutral 5 degraded

  8. Results for Vector Wind Of all cases: 37 improved 0 neutral 10 degraded

  9. Results for Humidity Of all cases: 43 improved 0 neutral 4 degraded

  10. Breakdown for cases

  11. Individual Case Comparison CASE P, T, V, Q, OVERALL 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 3 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 -1 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 6 -1 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 8 -1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 12 1 1 1 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 14 1 1 1 1 1 15 1 1 -1 1 1 16 1 1 1 1 1 17 1 -1 1 1 1 18 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 19 1 1 1 1 1 20 1 1 1 1 1 21 1 -1 -1 1 0 22 1 1 1 1 1 23 1 1 1 1 1 24 0 1 1 -1 1 25 1 1 1 1 1 26 -1 1 1 1 1 27 1 1 1 1 1 28 1 1 1 1 1 29 1 1 1 1 1 30 1 1 1 1 1 31 1 -1 1 1 1 32 1 -1 1 -1 0 33 1 1 1 1 1 34 1 1 1 1 1 35 -1 1 -1 1 0 36 -1 1 1 1 1 37 -1 1 -1 1 0 38 1 1 1 1 1 39 0 1 -1 1 1 40 1 1 -1 1 1 41 -1 1 1 -1 0 42 1 1 1 1 1 43 1 1 1 1 1 44 -1 1 -1 1 0 45 1 1 1 1 1 46 1 1 1 1 1 47 1 1 1 1 1 39 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 6 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 2 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 83% improved 13% neutral 4% degraded OVERALL EFFECT: 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect

  12. About the Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) Program • Took place 21 Jan – 17 March 2004 • Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s). • Observations are adaptively deployed using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) – • collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest • in areas expected to influence the forecast the most. • Previous forecasts improved in 60-80% of targeted cases (in past studies) • Operational since January 2001 • 36 flights, around 720 dropsondes this winter

  13. Observation time: 2004022300 Verification time: 2004022512 Latitude: 32N Longitude: 85W Priority: HIGH Comments: Heavy rain in eastern TX/OK thru north FL. Observation time: 2004022300 Verification time: 2004022600 Latitude: 35N Longitude: 120W Priority: HIGH Comments: Heavy rain So/Ce CA. ETKF Signal Variance ETKF “Summary Map”

  14. Influence of WSR dropwindsonde observations from Flight Track #31 on NCEP GFS forecasts, initialized 2004022300

  15. Results for Surface Pressure Of the cases: 21 improved 1 neutral 13 degraded

  16. Results for Temperature Of the cases: 21 improved 1 neutral 13 degraded

  17. Results for Vector Wind Of all cases: 24 improved 1 neutral 10 degraded

  18. Results for Specific Humidity Of all cases: 21 improved 0 neutral 14 degraded

  19. Breakdown for cases

  20. 24 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 0 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 11 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 69% improved 31% degraded OVERALL EFFECT: Individual Case Comparison OBS. DATE P, T, V, OVERALL 2004012900 1 1 1 1 2004020100 -1 1 1 1 2004020200 1 1 1 1 2004020500 1 -1 1 1 2004020500 0 1 1 1 2004020800 -1 1 1 1 2004020900 1 1 1 1 2004021000 -1 1 1 1 2004021300 1 1 -1 1 2004021500 1 1 1 1 2004021600 1 1 0 1 2004021700 1 1 1 1 2004021800 1 -1 1 1 2004022100 -1 0 -1 -1 2004022200 1 1 1 1 2004022300 1 -1 -1 -1 2004022400 1 1 1 1 2004022500 1 -1 1 1 2004022600 1 1 1 1 2004022600 -1 -1 1 -1 2004022600 1 1 -1 1 2004022700 1 1 1 1 2004022800 -1 -1 1 -1 2004030200 1 1 1 1 2004030600 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004030600 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004030600 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004030700 -1 -1 1 -1 2004030700 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004031200 1 1 1 1 2004031200 1 1 1 1 2004031300 1 1 1 1 2004031300 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004031500 -1 -1 -1 -1 2004031700 1 1 1 1 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect

  21. WSR05 improvement • Increased ensemble member number to 68 from 39 for the ETKF perturbation calculation • Better coding structure • The C130s will be based in Anchorage, while the G-IV will be based in Honolulu.

  22. Future Work • Examine the effects of dropsondes on precipitation • Compute average improvement / degradation over WSR domain (NE Pacific, U.S.) • Improve targeting method by reducing spurious or misleading guidance due to statistical sampling problems • Evaluate NCEP Atlantic Winter Storm results • Evaluate WSR using ensembles for WSR05 • Increase resolution and ensemble membership for WSR06 • Increased duration of program for WSR06?

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