How resilient is your farm and community?

1. How resilient is your farm and community? Jim Worstell, Resilience Project Anne Cafer, University of Mississippi Southern Sustainable Agriculture Working Group Annual Conference January 2019

2. When times get tough, who survives? • What are the common qualities present in all who survive? • Who is resilient? • Who is ready for the unexpected?

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5. Resilience is CLIMATED • Connectivity, but modular • Locally self-organized • Innovative yet conservative • Maintenance (redundancy & back-ups) • Accumulating reserves and infrastructure • Transform systems periodically • Ecological integration • Diversity, but complementary

6. Total Agrifood Sustainability Resilience Index: Summation Across All Indicators (Quartiles from 1=Lowest Scores to 4=Highest Scores) Based on summated and standardized scores across 10 indicators. A higher quartile ranking indicates a higher level of resilience on this measure. State of the South data sources: 2012 Census of Agriculture, 2013 Food Atlas, 2013 Farm to School Census, and 2014 review of state policies and regulations; extra calculations by the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies. Analysis based on 1301 counties.

7. Southern states with most resilient farms and communities.

8. “Humans prefer stability, a balance of nature, predictability in the economy, protection of human life. Natural systems are dependent on episodic destruction and regrowth of local plant and animal populations.

12. Adaptive cycle of all living systems • 4 phases of the adaptive cycle 1. growth (r) 2. conservation (K) 3. destruction/release (Ω) 4. reorganization (α) (Gunderson & Holling, 2002; Walker & Salt, 2006; Cabell & Oelofse, 2012)

13. Adaptive cycles at the farm level • A farm is a set of subsystems each of which is progressing through the adaptive cycle (α r K Ω) • Farmer prepares soil and plants: α • Plants grow rapidly and develop: r • Plants reach maturity and set seed: K • Plants are harvested: Ω • Farm staves off Ω at farm level by managing subsystems to keep as many as possible in r phase. • Twelve Aprils Farm—always a forage crop in r phase.

14. Resilience is sustainability plus creative destruction • Traditionally ecology has focused on succession--the transition from a time of rapid colonization of recently disturbed areas (r phase) to a time of slow accumulation and storage of energy and material (K phase). • Recent resilience research shows need for release (Ω phase) and reorganization (α phase). • Ecological resilience research views the adaptive cycle as a fundamental unit for understanding complex systems from cells to ecosystems to societies.

15. General and specific resilience Resilience to specific disruption or disasters: Cities build higher flood walls, dikes for sea level rise, increase modularity of electric grid. Some disturbances can’t be predicted. For these we need general resilience: the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected shocks. Analogous to disease resistance in plants. Breeders can introduce a gene for specific resistance to a particular race of wheat rust, but some populations have general resistance to wheat rust. Just as plants growing on fertile soil with adequate water have more general resistance, so must multiple factors be strengthened to increase general resilience.

16. What is a resilient system? Resilience is a measure of the ability of a system to absorb disturbance, adapt and become better able to withstand disturbance Resilience isn’t about reaching an equilibrium state. Rather, it is about how disturbance and stability paradoxically work together.

17. Qualities present in resilient systems • Connectivity, but modular • Locally self-organized • Innovative yet conservative • Maintenance (redundancy & back-ups) • Accumulating reserves and infrastructure • Transform systems periodically • Ecological integration • Diversity, but complementary

18. What makes a farm or community resilient? • Many locally-owned processing and marketing enterprises (e.g, farmers markets, CSAs, local meat processing) • Independent yet tightly connected to other communities, markets and government policy systems (e.g., high internet usage) • Welcomes a diversity of complementary enterprises (e.g., not dependent on just one crop) • Establishes back-ups and redundancy (e.g., farmer age is lower) • Physical assets are developed to support productivity which withstands disturbance (e.g. soil health increases, water storage, irrigation, processing equipment, grain storage) • Works with nature to minimize externally manufactured inputs, moving toward ecological integration (management intensive grazing, integrated pest management) • Encourages regular innovation which conserves the tried and true qualities which built it (not most innovative, but always trying new ideas) • Embraces disturbance and periodically transforms itself (regular change in management)

19. Basic questions to test your farm’s ability to withstand challenges • Modular Connectivity: How is your farm independent yet tightly connected to other farms, markets and government policy systems? • Local Self-Organization Are you insuring your farm is as locally-oriented as possible? How are you helping your local systems to self-organize to increase resilience? • Conservative Innovation How do you insure innovation is regularly occurring on your farm in a way which conserves the tried and true methods which built it? • Maintenance, back-ups now and in the future. How is your farm establishing back-ups and planning for the future? • Accumulation of Reserves What reserves and physical infrastructure are you accumulating on your farm? How do they contribute to your farm’s resilience? • Periodic Transformation: How has your farm been transformed over the years? How do you insure that your farm is ready for transformation if need be? • Ecological Integration Is your farm increasingly working with nature, achieving ecological integration? • Complementary Diversity: How is your farm welcoming a diversity of species and enterprises fit together well?

20. Do you join with others to organize marketing, processing, etc.? • Do you buy supplies locally? • Do you direct market? • Do you market locally? • Are you a member of any local cooperatives? • Are you a member of any local sustainable ag groups? • Do you live on your farm? • Do you own the land you farm? • Do you sell to local restaurants and shops? • How important is networking to you? • Do you like to share information with other farmers? • Do you share processing facilities with other farmers? • Do you hire others to do your planting and harvesting?

21. Are you independent but still closely connected to lots of other folks • How often do you read articles on agriculture? • Are you a regular internet user? • Do you share labor or equipment with neighbors? • Do you market with neighbors? • Are you a member of any cooperative? • Are you dependent on a single market outlet? • Do you buy from several suppliers? • Do you work with schools and universities? • Do you keep in contact with people you meet at conferences and seminars? • Do you seek out other enterprises like yours for advice, resource sharing, networking, new markets, information sharing? • Have you contacted any new potential buyers in the past year? • Do you share processing facilities with other farmers? • How important is networking to you? • Do you work with state or non-profit agencies to promote your products? • Do you talk to Extension agents and Researcherrs often?

22. Local food processing and marketing: Southern states • Top Southern States are Virginia South Carolina, North Carolina, and Kentucky. Except for these top four Southern states, all others are declining in the rankings. • Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi are similar to the top states in geography and demography, but have few lasting local food systems. • We conducted case studies of the most successful local food systems in these recalcitrant regions. • We found they were consistent with research on resilience of ecological systems.

24. Are you ready to totally transform your operation if you need to? • Have you changed your marketing strategy in the past five years? • Have you changed management structure in last five years? • Have you changed who’s in charge of various enterprises lately? • Do you like to shake things up every now and then? • If you are hesitant to make major changes to the structure of your farm?

25. Do you have adequate back-ups, contingency plans, succession plans? • Do you farm with relatives or alone? • Are your children interested in farming? • Do you have someone to take over your farm or business if you get hurt and can’t run it? • Do you have a plan for passing on your farm to another farmer? • Are there other farms like yours close to you? • Do you have ready access to replacement parts and equipment? • Will you hand down your land in one piece? • Do you involve young people in your enterprise? • Is lack of labor/help keeping you from expanding? • Do you have backup plans for all emergencies?

26. Are you increasing the reserves and physical infrastructure on your farm? • Soil quality? • ↑Organic matter, ↓erosion • On-farm storage? • grain bins, coolers • Irrigation capacity? • reservoirs, equipment • Processing equipment? • grain dryers, veg graders

27. Are you increasing the reserves and physical infrastructure on your farm? • Are you increasing on-farm storage capacity, whether grain bins or coolers? • Is your irrigation capacity increasing? Ponds, reservoirs, irrigation equipment • Are you gradually accumulating more processing equipment? • grain dryers, vegetable graders, grain mills, packaging lines, grain dryers • Within the last five years, have you invested in any of the following: • barns, storage capacity, processing equipment, coolers?

28. No state can have a resilient agriculture if it keeps losing farmland. The top 10 states losing farmland between 2007 and 2012: • Kentucky, 6.7 percent • Alaska 5.4 percent • Georgia 5.2 percent • Mississippi 4.6 percent • Wisconsin 4.1 percent • Minnesota 3.2 percent • Montana 2.65 percent • Missouri 2.61 percent • Louisiana 2.57 percent • New Jersey 2.5 percent Source: 2012 Census of Agriculture

29. A resilient system needs new farmers: South had highest declines in new farmers from 2007 to 2012

30. Redundancy: back-ups

31. If there are no new farmers coming in, the agricultural system cannot last.

32. There are pockets of young farmers near major urban areas The counties surrounding New York City (NY), Boston (MA), and Ithaca (NY) have some of the youngest farmers across the nation, including an average age as low as 37.4 years. Average in most Southern states is close to 60. 

33. Do you like to try new idea, but also like the tried and true? Conservative Innovation • Have you made major innovations on your farm in the last year? • Do you maintain tried and true traditional practices? • Do you have lots of options for pest control? • Do you have lots of options for fertility of crops? • Do you go to at least 4 trainings or seminars a year? • Is creativity important on your farm? • Do you regularly try new things to make your farm work better? • Do you look for ways to add value to your products? • Do you look for holes in the market to fill? • Are you creating your own markets?

34. Working with nature (ecological integration)

35. Do you try to work with Nature? • Are you using more pesticide every year? • Do you using more fertilizer every year? • Do you have refuges for beneficial insects? • Do you practice management intensive grazing? • Do you use crop rotation, cover crops, intercropping? • Do you plan for habitat for beneficial insects? • Do you provide habitat for pollinators?

36. Do you have a diverse set of enterprises which fit well together • Do your crop and animal enterprises require work at different times in your yearly schedule? • Do you have a variety of enterprises which fit well with each other? • Do you have alternative markets for all your products? • Do you use many varieties of seed? • Are you producing a greater variety of products than when you began managing the farm? • Is the quality of your products increasing? • Do you hold a non-farm job related to agriculture? • When you select a new enterprise, do you consider if you can use existing equipment?

37. What makes a farm or community resilient? • Many locally-owned and managed processing and marketing enterprises (e.g, farmers markets, CSAs, local meat processing) • Independent yet tightly connected to other communities, markets and government policy systems (e.g., high internet usage) • Welcomes a diversity of complementary enterprises (e.g., not dependent on just one crop) • Establishes back-ups and redundancy (e.g., farmer age is lower, people help each other) • Reserves and infrastructure are being accumulated to overcome disturbance (e.g. soil health increases, water storage, irrigation, processing equipment, grain storage) • Works with nature to minimize externally manufactured inputs, moving toward ecological integration (management intensive grazing, integrated pest management) • Encourages regular innovation which conserves the tried and true qualities which built it (not most innovative, but always trying new ideas) • Embraces disturbance and periodically transforms itself (regular change in management)

39. Total Agrifood Sustainability Resilience Index: Summation Across All Indicators (Quartiles from 1=Lowest Scores to 4=Highest Scores) Based on summated and standardized scores across 10 indicators. A higher quartile ranking indicates a higher level of resilience on this measure. State of the South data sources: 2012 Census of Agriculture, 2013 Food Atlas, 2013 Farm to School Census, and 2014 review of state policies and regulations; extra calculations by the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies. Analysis based on 1301 counties.

40. Southern states with the most resilient counties.

41. Resilience is CLIMATED • Connectivity, but modular • Locally self-organized • Innovative yet conservative • Maintenance (redundancy & back-ups) • Accumulating reserves and infrastructure • Transform systems periodically • Ecological integration • Diversity, but complementary

42. Resilience assessment at farm level: Worstell Farms • Local: all local direct marketing↑, and most local supply purchase↑ • Eco integration: management intensive grazing↑, native prairie and woods↑ • Connectivity: internet use high↑, share labor w neighbors↑, modularity low: not produce own hay↓ or plant/harvest own crops↓ • Conservative Innovation: high innovation↑, but adopt untried ideas↓ • Infrastructure: soil health growing↑, equipment sold↓, animal quality↑ • Redundancy: farm with siblings↑, children↑, neighbors↑ • Complementary Diversity: forage species↑, markets↑ • Transformation: periodic change in management structure↑ • 5/8 need to work on 3: Innovation, Assets, Modularity

43. How can we improve resilience of our farms and communities?

44. How can we improve resilience of our farms and communities?

45. Thanks delta@deltanetwork.org