Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in Germany

1. Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in Germany Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg hvonstorch@web.de, http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch

2. Needed: • Separation of popular constructions in the media and of scientifically valid assessments. • Generally understandable description of recent and ongoing regional climate change based on scientific results • Generally understandable description of possible regional climate changes in the future („scenarios“) • Analysis and derivation of options, from reduction of emissions, to better adaptation, reduction of vulnerability to local mitigation of climate related change. • Assessment of knowledge on regional climate change (e.g., BACC) derived with scientific methods These tasks are integrated in “regional climate offices“ and a “Climate Service Center” to improve science-stakeholder interaction in particular regions and on the national/European level

3. Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Storm count Lund and Stockholm

4. Knowledgeaboutongoingchange … Such as shown by the BACC report, or by the weather services, e.g., DMI or SMHI Centered 99%-iles (top) and annual means of high water levels at Cuxhaven, Germany.

5. www.coastdat.de • The CoastDat data set: • Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe • Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions • extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea • Clients: • Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic • Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) • General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change GKSS in Geesthacht

6. Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2030-2040 Scenarios A2, B2, different models Temperature Max Wind Precipitation

7. Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2071-2100 Scenarios A2, B2, different models Temperature Max Wind Precipitation

8. Changing storm surge heights in Cuxhaven und Hamburg Without subsidence or coastal engineering modifications of the river Elbe.

9. Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge heights in Hamburg • Additional flooding areas • Availability of additional polders to be flooded during severe storm surges to cap the peaks of such surges. • 3. Additional dissipation of tidal (and surge) energy by narrowing the mouth segment of the estuary • Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm. The Tidal Elbe concept of Hamburg Port Authority

10. A mitigation option: reversing (part of) the urban warming by „regional geo-engineering“ Gill et al.,2007

11. Assessing scientifically legitimate knwoledge claims about regional climate change

12. climate consensus reports Assessments about regional climate change- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change- consensus of what is scientifically documentedfor+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – done; 2nd report due in 2012+ Hamburg region (underway)+ North Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)+ Laptev Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven) in cooperation with HELCOM

13. Generation & Dissemination of Climate Knowledge North German Climate Officeother regional activities Regional level Climate Service Center (CSC) at GKSS (as national research lab) National level Research Results Information Needs SocietyEconomyPolitics/AdministrationScience Bridging the Gap

14. North German Climate Office

15. What do we offer? • Communication of regional climate change information. • Support for correct use and interpretation ofregional climate changes scenarios. • Determination of informational and interpretative needs among stakeholders

16. Requests for talks Total number of talks since 2006: 112 Average number of presentations per months. Jan. 2006-March 2007: 1,0 March 2007-Feb. 2008: 4,6 March 2008-Jan. 2009: 3,7 Regional level: 69% National level: 19% International level: 12%

17. Climate Service Center (CSC) • Objectives: • Contact point • Consulting • Generation of Data and Knowledge Base • Active Dissemination Cooperation with network of existing institutions Climate Service Center (approx. 20 pers)presently set up Federal ministries- of Education and Research (BMBF) - for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BMU) - of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs (BMVBS) Simulation & Data Commu-nication Assessment Consulting

18. To remember … • Anthropogenic climate change happens now + here. • Emerges in temperature and related quantities • Is mainly caused by elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. • Even a very successful „climate protection“ policy will only limit climate change, not eradicate it. • A necessity for significant adaptation measures will remain, which needs the administrative and political attention on the regional level. • Institutions for two-way exchange between science and stakeholders needed. • Knowledge about regional climate change, impacts and options is needed.