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Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender

Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island Carey Dickerman and Roger Stocker

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Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender

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  1. Upgrades to the GFDN model for 2009 and Beyond Morris A. Bender Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island Carey Dickerman and Roger Stocker Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center 3-D Ocean Coupling

  2. NAVY’S VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL (GFDN) HAD NOT BEEN UPGRADED SINCE 2003 AND LAGS IN SKILL BEHIND THE VERSION RUN AT NCEP

  3. SUMMARY OF 2008 GFDN MODEL UPGRADES Made Operational November 2008 • GFDN model Physics and Resolution were made consistent with NCEP’s GFDL Model • Addition of Third Mesh (Doubling of the Innermost Resolution to 1/12 degree) • Upgrade with NCEP’s Ferrier Micro-physics • (Replaced simplified large-scale condensation) • Dissipative Heating Effect Added • Improved Surface Momentum Fluxes Derived from Wave Model

  4. GFDN MODEL COUPLED TO PRINCETON OCEAN MODEL IN ALL OCEAN BASINS • Coupled to 3d version of POM model in Atlantic • (Identical to current version operational in GFDL) • Coupled to 1d Version of POM in all Other Ocean Basins (e.g.,Epac, Wpac, Indian Ocean, South Pacific) • (Current GFDL coupled to 1d version of POM in Eastern and Central Pacific) • Ocean initialized by the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) model on a daily basis in all basins except the Atlantic. • Loop Current, Gulf Stream, Warm and Cold Core Eddy Initialization in the Atlantic

  5. TESTS SHOWED IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES (2005-2007) AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL AVERAGE TRACK SKILL

  6. UPGRADES TO GFDN PLANNED F0R 2009 • Upgrade Coupling in the Pacific Basin • from 1-D to 3-D Ocean Model (Spring 2009) • Ocean initialized by NCODA data in the Atlantic Basin (2009-2010)

  7. Oceanic Features in the Western Pacific Will be Improved by replacing 1-D Ocean model with 3-D Ocean Model Typhoon Nary (2007) 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling 0 hr 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling 96 hr

  8. Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006 Demonstrates Importance of Upwelling for Slow Moving Storm 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling HOUR 0 HOUR 0 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling HOUR 120 HOUR 120

  9. Significantly Improved Prediction of Track and Intensity( Typhoon Cimaron: November 2nd , 0000 UTC, 2006) MAXIMUM WINDS 3-D Coupling CENTRAL PRESSURE 11-D OCEAN COUPLING 2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING 3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN 3-D Coupling

  10. Typhoon Ewiniar : July 3rd, 12z, 2006Fast Moving Storm May Have Less Impact with 3-D Coupling 1-D Coupling 3-D Coupling HOUR 0 HOUR 0 HOUR 120 HOUR 120

  11. Typhoon Ewiniar (July 3rd, 1200 UTC, 2006) CENTRAL PRESSURE MAXIMUM WINDS 1 1-D OCEAN COUPLING 2 3-D OCEAN COUPLING 3 2006 OPERATIONAL GFDN

  12. OVERALL REDUCED INTENSITY ERRORS with 3-D Coupling Compared to 1-D 1-D GFDN 3-D GFDN 3-D GFDN

  13. REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5WITH 3-D COUPLING 3-D GFDN 1-D GFDN OLD GFDN

  14. 3D Coupling Extended to Eastern and Central PacificHurricane John (August 31st, 2006) 1-D Coupling 3-D COUPLING

  15. Improved Details with High Resolution NCODA Ocean Data will be Extended to the Atlantic Basin NOGAPS SSTs NCODA SSTs NCODA DATA CLIMATOLOGY Temperatures at 75 m Temperatures at 75 m

  16. PROPOSED UPGRADES TO GFDN 2010-2012 • Increase inner-nest resolution from • 1/12th to 1/18th degree • Full Coupling with Wave Model • Improved Surface Fluxes • Sea-Spray Effect Included • Improved Radiation Package

  17. New Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave model design for GFDN

  18. SUMMARY • UPGRADED GFDN MODEL MADE OPERATIONAL NOVEMBER 2008 • GFDN OCEAN COUPLING IN PACIFIC BASIN TO BE UPGRADED FROM 1-D TO 3-D OCEAN MODEL IN 2009 • TEST RESULTS INDICATED SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION WITH REDUCED TRACK ERRORS IN DAYS 4 AND 5 • NAVY’S OCEAN DATA ANALYSIS (NCODA) TO BE EXTENED TO ATLANTIC BASIN (2009-2010) • FULL COUPLING WITH WAVE MODEL PLANNED FOR 2010 INCLUDING SEA-SPRAY EFFECTS

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