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Identify the big societal challenges facing the HWT

Objective. Identify the big societal challenges facing the HWT experimental warnings development and pathways to solutions We will not get bogged down in trying to find solutions here, just in refining the challenge list. To get you started…possible “Big challenge” areas.

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Identify the big societal challenges facing the HWT

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  1. Objective Identify the big societal challenges facing the HWT experimental warnings development and pathways to solutions We will not get bogged down in trying to find solutions here, just in refining the challenge list

  2. To get you started…possible “Big challenge” areas Vulnerability: Handling the spectrum without being overwhelmed by it Cultural differences: Understanding how people make action decisions Verification: Finding new measures that better assess how we’re doing Inertia: Moving away from “one size fits all” warnings and sirens Communication: Turning uncertainty information into a clear message Preparedness: Stressing the need for action before the storm arrives

  3. Vulnerability How do we handle the spectrum of user vulnerability without being overwhelmed by it? 1 person in a concrete bunker 2 people in a mobile home with a nearby shelter 3 people in a mobile home with no nearby shelter 4 people in a “permanent” home 35 people at a small business 90 people at a nursing home 200 children out camping 500 people at a manufacturing plant 800 people at a theater complex 1,200 students at a school 3,000 people at a hospital 100,000 people at an outdoor stadium …all threatened in a single tornado outbreak? An F4 tornado strikes the Parsons Manufacturing Plant near Roanoke, IL on 13 July 2004. Over 100 people at the plant took cover and no one was seriously injured

  4. Cultural Differences It’s not just exposure to the hazard that determines vulnerability. People in different cultural groups might make decisions during threatening weather differently. How do we identify and deal with these issues? Men vs. women Young vs. elderly Caucasian Hispanic African-AmericanTornado-alley vs. elsewhere and so on…

  5. Verification Do the current measures of skill really capture how well we are doing? What changes can we aim for? Considerations: - Lead time - Probability of detection - False alarm rate - False alarm area

  6. Inertia Society is accustomed to expecting warnings in a certain way (10-15 minutes of lead time, high false alarm rate, but no missed events) Possible issues:- “We can never express uncertainty in warnings” - People expect “one size fits all” warnings - Dependence on sirens - “Just tell me what to do!”

  7. Communication • How do we turn our uncertainty information into a clear, • consistent message? • Possible issues:- “Call to action” message wording- Various dissemination pathways • Partnerships • Technology Warning!

  8. Preparedness • Stressing the need for action before the storm arrives • - Long-term preparedness issues • - Days before the outbreak • The morning of the event • Hours beforehand

  9. Your assignment Using these suggestions as a starting point, develop and refine a list of specific challenges for HWT experimental warnings and possible pathways to solutions, and any relevant points of discussion. Don’t try to solve the problems (but if you have an idea jot it down!) Example: Study is needed on why elderly people are more at risk during tornado events and what can be done to address this (note: elderly people probably rely most on television and radio to get warnings and might take longer than other people to get to shelter) The breakout sessions will be a good time to clarify the list. E-mail or hand me your list by Tuesday evening and we will revisit it on Wednesday morning.

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