Human Terrain and The Power Arena: Mapping Power in the Afghan Civil War

1. Human Terrain and The Power Arena: Mapping Power in the Afghan Civil War Semester Project Phase 3 Ryan Bullock, CONF 695 DL-2 Intractable Conflict, Fall 2013, Dr.’s Burgess

2. In Theory Weberian.Weber believed Power was derived from Party, Status, and Position. These were apportioned within societies to guarantee resources and assets were controlled by dominant social classes, themselves constructed from Parties, Statuses, and Positions. Gidedensian: Theory of Structuration. “…structures, as rules and resources, are both the precondition and the unintended outcome of people’s agency…..” Giddens addresses the transformative and domineering qualities of power. As Giddens notes: Action depends on the capability of the individual to ‘make a difference’ to a preexisting state of affairs or course of events. An agent ceases to be such if he or she loses the capability to ‘make a difference’, that is, to exercise some sort of power.” (Giddens, 1984: 14) Lukesian: Power: A Radical View. Individuality; “The principle of individualism that which, taking man out of society, makes him sole judge of what surrounds him and of himself, gives him a heightened sense of his rights without showing him his duties, abandons him to his own powers, and, for the whole of government, roclaimslaisser-faire.” Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation, Spring 2013, SCAR (Bullock)

3. The scope of your research about what you have found as a gap or missing link in CAR Power: Assumptions & Facts Assumptions ▪ Potential Power resides in all individuals, groups, and organizations. ▪ These combinations and their attendant characteristics can be qualified and quantified as Power Attributes ▪ The more Power Attributes an actor has, the more powerful the actor ▪ Organizations are generally more powerful than individuals or groups Facts ▪ Power is dynamic, it is subject to factors inherent in the environment • ▪ Power can be derived from multiple sources • ▪ Power is contextual, and relative to other types of power with which it • may be confronted • ▪ Power is transitory, levels of power mayfluctuate • ▪ Exercise of power is an integral part of all human relationships Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation, Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

4. Sources & Models of Power From Where do Actors Draw Their Power ? Weber • Land • Capital • Social respect • Physical strength • Intellectual knowledge Chris.Livesey:www.sociology.org.uk Beth Roy • Internal • Transactional • Organizational • Cultural • Structural Beth Roy, “Thinking About Power” How Do Actors Employ Power ? French & Raven • Reward power • Legitimate power • Referent power • Expert power • Informational power wikipedia.com DIME: • Diplomatic • Information • Military • Economic Everybody knows DIME Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation, Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

5. The scope of your research about what you have found as a gap or missing link in CAR Not understanding actor power dynamics can have grave consequences for CR Practitioners ▪ Actors can be individuals or nation states, and anybody in between ▪ Understanding actor power is key to facilitating empowerment ▪ Actors draw power from multiple sources ▪ Knowing which power attributes an actor will employ in a mediation situation is key ▪ Relationships between actors can balance power dynamics ▪ Stakes will dictate levels of power displayed by actors Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation, Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

6. The Major Players AQ USA GIROA Warlords NATO Taliban International Community The Afghans Pashtuns Elites NGO Warlords Pakistan Tajiks Others Uzbeks Hazara Iran Military Support Armed Conflict Government Humanitarian Direct Indirect

7. The power Arena The map depicts two major players, the international community, and the Afghans. Within these categories exist multiple key players, including the US/ISAF, and other international actors, the GIROA, the Taliban, the Pashtuns, other Afghan ethnic groups, and the warlords/elites. Key players in Afghanistan employ various types of power. Power, sources of power, and means are distributed unequally amongst the key players in Afghanistan. Actors employ power through both legitimate and illegitimate structures. Warlords/Elites are key power nodes in Afghanistan. Outside actors exercise power, influencing the conflict system positively and negatively. Land, social respect, and physical strength are key sources of power in Afghanistan. The map indicates military power is a key characteristic of the Afghan conflict. Those who know it best, call it the Afghan civil war for a reason. Military power is distributed amongst key players, mainly the GIROA, the resistance, meaning the Taliban and other groups, and ISAF/U.S., representing the military contingent of the international community seeking stability in Afghanistan. But violence as a conflict resolution method is distributed to the lowest levels of Afghan society.

8. Structures AQ Taliban ANSF incapable of providing security Rule of Law serves elites only GIROA Instability Other Resistance Groups Weak Central Government Corrupt Law Enforcement Natural Resources Controlled by Elites Other Ethnic Groups Warlords Pashtun Tribes Private Armie Warlords Corrupt Institutions Rule of Law serves elites only Corrupt Institutions Tribal Base Actor Arrested Development Poor Governance Structural Element Institution Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA Struggling Economy drives illicit activity Key Function Attitude Stagnating Relationship Transaction Escalatory Relationship Reciprocal Relationship Critical Conflict Relationship Secondary Causal Relationship

9. What power options exist for whom?   International actors continue to wield significant power of all types in Afghanistan. Military and economic power are prominent features of the international commitment. Imminent withdrawal of outside actor combat forces will induce reliance on softer methods of influence, perhaps based more on diplomacy and referent sources. Conflict mapping depicted the powerful position of the Afghan Pashtuns. The Pashtuns draw power from a variety of sources and have dominated Afghan politics for hundreds of years. The Pashtuns wield a great deal of cultural, structural (through the tribal system), transactional, and organizational power. As one component of the world’s largest tribal structure, the Pashtuns represent 40% of Afghanistan’s population. The center of gravity for military resistance to ISAF/GIROA resides in the Pashtun tribal structure, and perhaps more importantly ethos, as shown by multiple layers of the conflict map. Other ethnic groups in Afghanistan maintain credible power sources, means, and options. Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara interests are mapped to GIROA, and as an actor cluster they function as a power balance to Pashtun influence, and drive to dominate. Tajik warlords wiled significant military, economic, political, and cultural power in northern and eastern Afghanistan. The Hazara have sought security and legitimacy by securing footholds in the security and political structures of the GIROA.

10. Attitudes The Afghans Core Grievances The Afghans Taliban WEARINESS Extremism Religion Uncertainty Social Capital Shared History USA LACK OF CONFIDENCE Resistance Corruption NATO Resignation Afghan Civil War Fear ANSF incapable of providing security Pashtun Tribes INTL Community GIROA Weak Central Government Poverty Struggling Economy drives illicit activity Tribal Base RESENTMENT Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA Damaged Identities Attitude Institution/Actor Tajiks Ethnocentrism Uzbeks Structural Element + Hazara Pashtun Superiority Actor Key Governance Functions Intergroup Relations Reciprocal Relationship Primary Causal Relationship Critical Relationship Secondary Causal Relationship

11. Design a power strategy for at least two of the primary disputants and one potential intervener. The basic framework relies on a federated system geographically oriented on Afghanistan’s ethnic groups. It is all predicated upon a cessation of hostilities. Fighting must stop, and only the Afghans can really plant the seeds of peace. In this arrangement, the GIROA would cede certain powers, including local security, to the federated states. 1) VIOLENCE. Reduce Military Power. The map indicates military power is a prominent power type, characteristic of the Afghan conflict. Those who know it best, call it the Afghan civil war for a reason. Military power is distributed amongst key players, mainly the GIROA, the resistance, meaning the Taliban and other groups, and of course the ISAF/U.S., representing the military contingent of the international community seeking stability in Afghanistan. Together these actors account for nearly all of the death and destruction in Afghanistan. 2) SHRINK Poor Governance. Re-power GIROA. Ironically, empowering GIROA could actually mean weakening it. Given the historic disdain for central authority exhibited by Afghanistan’s population at large, it is unlikely a weak GIROA will be able to maintain its position for an extended period of time, once its INTL benefactors depart. GIROA wallows in a debilitating credibility gap, unable to shed the malaise of corruption and ineffectiveness marking its tenure thus far. As such it is necessary to realistically scope the role and powers of GIROA in the future of Afghanistan. 3) REDUCE ETHNIC TENSION. Power Sharing. The longstanding tension, and contention, between the Pashtuns and the other ethnic groups informs the factionalized and fractionalized nature of Afghan politics and society. The Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara can marshal power collectively to offset Pashtun power and dominance.  

12. Diplomacy Transactions INTL Community FEUDALISM Uncertainty USA Corruption NATO Patronage ANSF incapable of providing security Struggling Economy drives illicit activity Instability WARFARE Extremism Pashtun Tribes GIROA Weak Central Government Tribal Base Exploit-ation Actor Poverty Structural Element Resistance Institution Warlords Other Resistance Groups Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA Attitude Private Armies Stagnating Relationship Proselytizing Taliban Transaction Escalatory Relationship Reciprocal Relationship Religion Critical Conflict Relationship Secondary Causal Relationship