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Some public opinion results

Some public opinion results. Do knowledgeable people differ in their ideology? Percent who are “knowledgeable” 51% of liberals 36% of conservatives What does this mean? Are liberals more knowledgeable? . Are Knowledge and Ideology Spurious in this Case?.

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Some public opinion results

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  1. Some public opinion results • Do knowledgeable people differ in their ideology? • Percent who are “knowledgeable” • 51% of liberals • 36% of conservatives • What does this mean? • Are liberals more knowledgeable?

  2. Are Knowledge and Ideology Spurious in this Case? • Knowledge and Ideology are related • But… those who are “interested” in politics are twice as likely to be “knowledgeable” about politics (in this sample) • And… liberals are significantly more likely to be interested in politics than conservatives (in this sample)

  3. A= Yes, B = No • Does everyone understand what it means to “control for” interest? • And… liberals are significantly more likely to be interested in politics than conservatives (in this sample)

  4. Are Knowledge and Ideology Spurious in this Case? • Maybe… • If we “control for” interest in politics: • The percent of respondents who are “knowledgeable” • 68% of liberals • 68% of conservatives • In our sample, knowledge and ideology might be spuriouslyrelated.

  5. What Explains Your Ideology? • Your year in school • Your gender • Income (parents’ income) • Mother’s education • News consumption • Trust in people • Discuss politics • Knowledge • Interest in politics • Parents’ Ideology • Trust in Government

  6. Why a “constant” cannot explain variation • What factors would help explain the differences in your performance in this class?

  7. Why a “constant” cannot explain variation • What factors would help explain the differences in your performance in this class? • Attendance • SAT scores • Your major • Hours spent studying • Quality of notes • Participation in recitation • Etc.

  8. GradeAttendance A 100% B+ 95% A- 100% C 100% C 100% D 97% B 100% C 100% A 95% F 100% Can Attendance “explain” differences in grades in this sample of students?

  9. Which of these best describes the typical CU Boulder student? • Strong Liberal • Partly Liberal • Moderate • Partly Conservative • Strong Conservative

  10. What do you think of CU students’ ideology?

  11. What is YOUR Ideology?

  12. Perception vs. Reality?

  13. What shapes your opinions? • Family • Race/ethnicity • Religion • Region – rural versus urban, west and east versus middle America and south • Social class • Education • Age or life experience • Events – war or economic downturns or upturns

  14. Can we “generalize” from our class survey? • We want to be careful about making broad generalizations from bad survey research • Variables that were left out of our survey • Religion • Region • Etc… • What might be bad about our survey? • Can we generalize to CU?

  15. How We Measure Public Opinion • In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you who sponsored the poll, the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted. • Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the ‘N') and the error rate (+ or - 5%, etc.).

  16. Does it matter? • In healthy democracies, broader public opinion matters because of elections • Most politicians are terrified of you • Is this good? Bad? • It matters in the aggregate (as a whole) • It matters over time • Marketplace of ideas • Competition of ideas, even if they are mostly initiated by elites

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