1 / 3

Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates

Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates. “ if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases the average global temperature would still increase by 0.5 degrees” Fahrenheit By when? “…average global temperature is still estimated to increase by….”.

kirra
Download Presentation

Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates • “if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases the average global temperature would still increase by 0.5 degrees” • Fahrenheit • By when? • “…average global temperature is still estimated to increase by….”

  2. Attribution of changes in average temperature and extreme events • Broadly observed: • Elevated GHG concentrations are causing an increase in global average temperature. • Elevated GHG concentrations are causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather. • Narrowly observed • Elevated GHG concentrations caused the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave. • Elevated GHG concentrations increased the likelihood or odds of an event like the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave. • Also: what was the relevance of 2011 being a La Nina year?

  3. Should we prioritize adaptation or mitigation? • What determines the relative returns to mitigation and adaptation? • Will this depend on the level of U.S. mitigation? • Will this depend on the level of global mitigation?

More Related