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Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES-163-25-0012. Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy
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Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES-163-25-0012
Demographic change at small area level • Small area statistics to develop public policy • Information relating to components of population change • Counts of births, deaths, migration, etc. • Rates of births, deaths, migration, etc. • Estimates for past population & forecasts of the future • Following slides in no particular order • Facets are overlapping • Some conceptual, some practical
Time frame? • Past • Estimates, based on evidence • Future • Projections, trends • Forecasts, assumptions 1981? 2031? Length of time-frame? Long enough to identify trends Long enough for policy Too long less accurate
Small area geography? Council Area Small Area Ward, Parish, Settlement Familiar areas Previous data Boundary change? Postal Sector Output Area Unit Postcode Traditional Data Zone Frozen geography Unfamiliar areas? Back data? Future proof? Statistical Flexible, versatile Technical challenge? Desire or need? Futuristical
Demographic detail? Data detail Geographic detail Demographic detail Reliability? Significance of rates? Confidentiality? Safe data Safe detail Safe access Safe users
Consistency vs. Currency? Old detail for comparability Current detail for applicability Estimates & lookups • Topics & variables • Same as before • Relevant to now / future • Geography • Same as before / now, frozen into future • Current / future geography, update old data
Pre-calculated data? Methods • Simple: less reliable but transparent, regular & quick updates • Sophisticated: opaque, time-consuming but robust & relevant • Revise previous releases • Estimates improved with hindsight but rates & interpretations change Comparability / standard area Europe UK Scotland Local
National coverage vs. Local knowledge? Data on ‘hard to estimate’ groups & areas of fast change National coverage Local knowledge • National • Consistent across all areas • Simpler, more transparent • Local • Immigrant & other sub-groups • Institutions, Students, Military bases • Travellers, Sleeping rough • Planning inputs
Data sources on components? • Births & deaths • Current data no problem • Backdated time-series? • Migration • Administrative sources • National registration, but needs public support • Sub-groups • Ethnic groups • Occupational & social groups • Living arrangements & institutional populations
Consistency & agreement between agencies? • Census • Questions & categories of answers • Geographical hierarchy • Confidentiality • Commissioned tables • Vital Statistics • Demographic & geographic detail • Time scales of availability UK Scotland Local
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