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Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman

Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES-163-25-0012. Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy

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Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman

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  1. Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES-163-25-0012

  2. Demographic change at small area level • Small area statistics to develop public policy • Information relating to components of population change • Counts of births, deaths, migration, etc. • Rates of births, deaths, migration, etc. • Estimates for past population & forecasts of the future • Following slides in no particular order • Facets are overlapping • Some conceptual, some practical

  3. Time frame? • Past • Estimates, based on evidence • Future • Projections, trends • Forecasts, assumptions 1981? 2031? Length of time-frame? Long enough to identify trends Long enough for policy Too long  less accurate

  4. Small area geography? Council Area Small Area Ward, Parish, Settlement Familiar areas Previous data Boundary change? Postal Sector Output Area Unit Postcode Traditional Data Zone Frozen geography Unfamiliar areas? Back data? Future proof? Statistical Flexible, versatile Technical challenge? Desire or need? Futuristical

  5. Demographic detail? Data detail Geographic detail Demographic detail Reliability? Significance of rates? Confidentiality? Safe data Safe detail Safe access Safe users

  6. Consistency vs. Currency? Old detail for comparability Current detail for applicability Estimates & lookups • Topics & variables • Same as before • Relevant to now / future • Geography • Same as before / now, frozen into future • Current / future geography, update old data

  7. Pre-calculated data? Methods • Simple: less reliable but transparent, regular & quick updates • Sophisticated: opaque, time-consuming but robust & relevant • Revise previous releases • Estimates improved with hindsight but rates & interpretations change Comparability / standard area Europe UK Scotland Local

  8. National coverage vs. Local knowledge? Data on ‘hard to estimate’ groups & areas of fast change National coverage Local knowledge • National • Consistent across all areas • Simpler, more transparent • Local • Immigrant & other sub-groups • Institutions, Students, Military bases • Travellers, Sleeping rough • Planning inputs

  9. Data sources on components? • Births & deaths • Current data no problem • Backdated time-series? • Migration • Administrative sources • National registration, but needs public support • Sub-groups • Ethnic groups • Occupational & social groups • Living arrangements & institutional populations

  10. Consistency & agreement between agencies? • Census • Questions & categories of answers • Geographical hierarchy • Confidentiality • Commissioned tables • Vital Statistics • Demographic & geographic detail • Time scales of availability UK Scotland Local

  11. Advertisements! • TSG / GRO sponsored PhD • Joint estimation of small area population and household characteristics’, John McCarthy • Please liaise with & support John with his research as we can all benefit • ESRC Understanding Population Trends & Processes • ‘User Fellowships’: http://www.uptap.net/index.html • This could be an opportunity for local & national government researchers to address a particular on secondment (full or part time) • Applied Spatial Analysis & Policy (ASAP) • New journal http://asap.edmgr.com# • Local & national government researchers can get your work published here

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