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Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms

Case Study Analysis of a Community in Nova Scotia. Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms. Honours Thesis Proposal Jacqueline Wightman Environmental Planning Dalhousie University February 7 th , 2013. Photo Source: Environment Canada. 2009. . Outline. Background

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Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms

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  1. Case Study Analysis of a Community in Nova Scotia Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms Honours Thesis Proposal Jacqueline Wightman Environmental Planning Dalhousie University February 7th, 2013 Photo Source: Environment Canada. 2009.

  2. Outline • Background • Storms in Nova Scotia • Coastal Development Trends • What is vulnerability? • Research Problem • Goals and Objectives • Method • Expected Findings • Implications of Study

  3. Storms in Nova Scotia Nova Scotia 10 Years of Hurricane Tracks: 1992 - 2001

  4. Storms in Nova Scotia Land-falling Hurricanes 100 Years of Tracks in Nova Scotia Photo Source: Environment Canada, 2012.

  5. Storms in Nova Scotia • Land-falling hurricanes are not the only problem • Extratropical storm remnants can also do damage Remnants of Hurricane Noel (2007) Damaged property and roads, Caused power outages to homes and businesses in Nova Scotia Photo Source: CBC News Online, 2012.

  6. Storms in Nova Scotia • Winter storms can do a lot of damage Groundhog Day Storm, 1976 Blow to Yarmouth fishing industry Thousands of dollars of damage to this wharf alone Photo Source: Fundy Group Publications LTD, Groundhog ‘76

  7. Storms in Nova Scotia • Climate change will increase storm risk: • Storm surges will reach further inland due to sea level rise • Possibility of more frequent, intense storms

  8. Coastal Development Trends • Number of people on the coast is increasing • More people exposed • Use of coast in the 19th and early 20th century: • infrastructure (wharves, docks, railways, etc.) • Today: • residential, recreational, commercial and institutional uses

  9. What is vulnerability? RISK is the product of • Hazard – How big is the storm? • Exposure – Will the storm hit us? • Vulnerability – Can we withstand it? All of these factors determine the RISK of damages

  10. What is vulnerability? • The amount of destruction is determined by: • Magnitude of the storm • Our location in relation to the storm • Infrastructure and development patterns

  11. Research Problem • How has vulnerability to storms in a community in Nova Scotia evolved over time due to changes in development patterns? • What do these trends imply for future storm risk?

  12. Goals • Goal 1: Conduct a historical case study analysis of the effect of land use change on vulnerability • Goal 2: Determine how the community can minimize its vulnerability to future storms

  13. Objectives • Map development changes over time including type, density, use and form. • Interpret land use change from a vulnerability perspective: • Determine and identify vulnerable land uses at each point in time. • Identify the damages associated with every storm. • Compare past to present vulnerability, and make recommendations based on past trends.

  14. Method • Chose a community that is vulnerable to storms and has undergone significant land use change. • Yarmouth, Nova Scotia • Strongly affected by storms • Data available

  15. Spatial analysis of land use change using GIS: Geo-reference and map historic fire insurance maps Aerial photos Current Zoning maps Method: Land Use Change Over Time Section of 1891 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

  16. Categorize buildings based on attributes that affect vulnerability: Use Building materials Permanency Investment Interpret change in vulnerability over time due to changes in land use Method: Land Use Change Over Time Section of 1938 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

  17. Create a list of major storms that hit community: Environment Canada News articles Compare storm damages to land use at the time, make correlations if possible Method: Storm Damage Analysis

  18. Analyze current vulnerability to storms Based on historic trends and current land use maps Identify areas of concern Method: Vulnerability to Future Storms

  19. Expected Findings Historic trends • Vulnerability increases as the coast becomes more developed • More storm damages in areas where development has changed from infrastructure/industrial to residential/commercial/recreational Future storm risk • Development occurring in a way that increases vulnerability Change in hazard? • Fires more of an issue in the 19th century • Flooding a bigger issue today than in the past

  20. Implications of study Understanding the past is key to planning for the future. Past: • The influence of a community’s development on its vulnerability to storms Present: • Trends show an increase in vulnerability, how can we change this? Future: • Climate change • increase in storm extent = more damage potential

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