1 / 45

PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA

PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA. Quantitative Study March 2006 Report. Methodology of the Study. METHOD OF THE STUDY: Quantitative, representative of the population in the 18-55 age group

kitra-trujillo
Download Presentation

PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA Quantitative Study March2006 Report

  2. Methodology of the Study METHOD OF THE STUDY: Quantitative, representative of the population in the 18-55 age group METHOD OF REGISTRATION: Direct personal interview, carried out in the home of the respondent EXCERPT’S MODEL: Address cluster excerpt. Identification of respondents by quota VOLUME OF EXCERPT: Planned volume 820 interviews in 120 clusters Realised volume: 808 interviews in 120 clusters GENERAL AGGREGATE: Bulgarian population in the 18-55 age group (4 246 512) PERIOD OF REALISATION: 01-09 March 2006 REPRESENTATIVENESS: 1% corresponds to 42 465 people of the general aggregate CONFIDENCE INTERVALS: relevant share of 10% + 2.0%; relevant share of 20% + 2.5%; relevant share of 30% + 2.8%; relevant share of 40% + 3.0%; relevant share of 50% + 3.5%.

  3. Main aims of the study • The main aim of the study is to find out the prevalent attitudes towards EU membership of Bulgaria. • To find out the expected positive and negative effects, from personal and from public point of view. • The study attempts to differentiate the attitude towards the different variants of EU membershipof Bulgaria. • Valiant 1:Full EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 • Variant 2:Introduction of the delay safeguard clauseand accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2008 • Variant 3: Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of EU home marketaccess safeguard clause • Variant 4:Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of justice and home affairssafeguard clause • Variant 5:Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of 2 safeguard clauses – for justice and home affairs and EU domestic market access.

  4. Socio-demographic profile of the studied aggregate

  5. Socio-demographic profile of the studied aggregate

  6. Main conclusions /1 • Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria • EU membership of Bulgaria is widely supported -72% by the studied population age group – 18-55. At the same time, the positive opinion of the country’s development is considerably lower–36%. • EU membership is supported mainly by people, considering that the country is developing in the right direction. • Within the group of the youngest (18-24),the predominant idea is that the country is developing in wrong direction (36%). Although as a whole this group approves EU membership, here is the biggest share of its opponents (27%),as compared to the other age groups. • EU membership opponents are aware of the negative effects of the accession on the country and on themselves. However, even this group admits the positive effect that it will have on the inflow of foreign investment. • EU denial is a result of negative, as well as of lack of any, expectations. Within the group of the negatively disposed, there is a high percentage of undefined specific expectations.

  7. Main conclusions/2 • Expected effects of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 • Expectations of the effects of EU membership are positive as a whole. • Positive effects are related to „more general” aspects for the country: • Positive development of the country 69% • Political stability 68% • Economic development 67% • The idea of Bulgarians of EU membership is most closely related to economic development of Bulgaria. Only 6% state that the possible membership will not influence that sphere. The sensitivity in respect of the economic issues reflects the rather conflicting expectations. The main fears of negative effect are related namely to living standard and economic development of the country, respectively 27% and 21%. • EU membership results are mainly related to inflow of foreign investment into the country – 88%. This is the immediately drawn benefit and most tangible expected result. The expectations, related to the effect on quality of goods and consumers’ protection, are also positive – 78%, limiting of organized crime – 74% and of corruption – 71%.

  8. Main conclusions/3 • Expected effects of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 • 64% expect positive effect of European membership on Bulgarian institutions. • In general, EU membership is related to higher positive expectations for Bulgaria as a whole, than to personal benefits. 43% of the interviewedrelate membership in 2007 to positive personal effects. 22% do not consider that the membership of the country will affect them in any way. • Expected positive effects of EU membership • Raising of the living standard 30% • Foreign investment 13% • Free movement of people12% • Expected negative effects of EU membership • Deterioration of the living standard 23% • Raising of the prices22% • Bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business 12%

  9. Main conclusions/4 • Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership • Bulgarians remain skeptical about the readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership. Every second person thinks that the country does not meet EU requirements. The general opinion – 42% is that the possible delay will raise the country’s readiness for membership. 27% consider that even in a year the country will not be more ready for membership. • EU membership opponents remain skeptical about the capability of Bulgaria to comply with EU requirements. 75% of them state that currently Bulgaria does not meet membership requirements, and 41% claim that the country will not be ready for membership even in a year. • The expectations within the studied age group (18-55) of Bulgaria becoming full member of EU in 2007 are high – 47%. 23% of the respondentsexpect accession delay for 2008. • Within the context of the cited support of the EU membership of the country (72%), only 56% consider the full EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 to be the best variant for the country. This is the group of the strongest supporters of the European membership of Bulgaria.

  10. Main conclusions/5 • Expectation of the realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria • The possible acceptance of Bulgaria as EU member in January 2007 is considered to be a result of outside for the country factors: EU global strategy – 30% and home interests of the member states – 27%. • The delay is related to internal for the country factors – mainly the insufficient readiness of Bulgaria – 69%. • The negative aspects of membership delay for 2008 are associated with home political and economic effects. The main expectations are related to negative effect on: • Development of the country as a whole 58% • Economic development of Bulgaria 56% • Political stability in the country 51% • Living standard 48% • 33% associate the membership delay for 2008 with negative effect on the EU accession of other countries from the region. • Bulgarians approve to a greater extent the EU enlargement and accession of other countries from the region: • Romania 73% • Serbia 72% • Macedonia 71%

  11. Main conclusions/6 • Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 without safeguard clause. • Variant 1 • This is the most expected variant by Bulgarians. One third of the studied age group 18-55 believes that namely this is going to happen. This variant of membership would obtain the highest level of satisfaction of Bulgarian society – 73%. • The full membership of Bulgaria in 2007 will positively affect the attitude of Bulgarians towards EU as a whole – 63% and EU institutions – 61%, as well as towards Bulgarian government – 60%. • The possible membership delay (as well as accession with one or two safeguard clauses) will affect most negatively the attitude towards the government of Bulgaria – 44% in case of membership delay and 61% in case of membership with 2 safeguard clauses. • The delay will also give rise to strengthening of euro-skepticism of Bulgarians about European institutions – 31%, as well as about the Union as a whole – 30%.

  12. Main conclusions/7 • Attitude towards introduction of delay safeguard clause and EU membership of Bulgaria • in 2008. • Variant 2 • Bulgarian public opinion is prepared for the possibility of delay of EU membership for 2008. It is interpreted as an admissible measure, which will cause raising of the country’s readiness. • The strongest negative effect of this variant will be emotional – every second person will be disappointed of membership delay for 2008. • The government will also be negatively affected by that – 44%. • Our accession in 2008 will also have a direct negative effect on foreign investment – 52%, and hence an indirect effect on economy – 37%. • The main beneficiary of the membership delay, in the interviewed opinion, will be the grey economy – 43% and the crime – 40%. • 38% state that the delay will not affect their attitude towards EU and European institutions. • The skepticism in respect of the degree of readiness for EU membershipaffects the opinion of 42% of the respondents, who think that in 2008 the country will be more ready for membership than it is now.

  13. Main conclusions/8 • Attitude towards the possibility of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 with introduction of the EU home market access safeguard clause. • Variant 3 • The possibility of membership in 2007 with activated safeguard clause is relatively new for Bulgarian society, and, therefore, the level of information about all its aspects is still low. This affects the low level of differentiation between the separate safeguard clauses and the shades of their differences. * This is why the interviewed were provided with general explanations thereof. The opinions are expressed thereafter. • The opinions of the different variants of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with activated safeguard clause (regardless of which one) reveal negative attitudes. The effects on the country of activation of a safeguard clause are considered to be more negative than membership delay for 2008.

  14. Main conclusions/9 • Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgarian to EU in 2007 with introduction of EU home market access safeguard clause. • Variant 3 • As far as the positives of the membership are related mainly to economic aspects of the development of the country, this variant is considered to be particularly negative. 68% of the interviewed will be disappointed of such a progress. • Even the opponents of EU membership of Bulgaria will be very disappointed of this variant. • This variant will most negatively affect the attitude of Bulgarians towards EU institutions - 42% and towards the Union as a whole - 41%. This means that this variant will most strongly reinforce euro-skepticism of Bulgarians. • The most negative effects of membership with activated EU home market access clause are related to the effect on small and medium-sized business– 65% and especially to the enterprises, which have made every endeavor to comply with EU requirements – 68%. • The explicitness of Bulgarian public opinion as regards this variantis further confirmed by the fact, found out by the study, that the negative reactions are sharp within all studied socio-demographic groups.

  15. Main conclusions/10 • Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with introduction of justice and home affairs safeguard clause. • Variant 4 • The attitudes towards this variant are less negative than towards the foregoing. This may be explained by the inability of Bulgarian judicial system to cope with the high crime and unrevealed serious crimes in the recent years. • 49% of the 18 – 55 age group population will be disappointed by the activation of the justice and home affairs safeguard clause, which is lower than the other safeguard clause variants. • The negative attitude will be oriented towards the country’s government – 49% and 24% towards EU. • The main beneficiary, in the interviewed opinion, will be the grey economy – 32%. • There are problems in understanding the results from such a variant of accession. Public opinion is divided in terms of its attitude towards the effects for the judicial system. 40% foresee positive effect on the work of the judicial system, and 32% – negative. • The attitude towards stability and security of the home affairs in the country is also unspecified – 36% expect positive, 33% - negative effect.

  16. Main conclusions/11 • Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with introduction of 2 safeguard clauses – for justice and home affairs and for EU home market access. • Variant 5 • This variant is considered to be the most negative. It accumulates the negatives of the two foregoing and is regarded as the worst one. Seven out of ten people would be disappointed of such decision for realisation of EU membership. • The negatives will be attributed to the government of Bulgaria – 61% of the respondents will negatively change their attitude. • This will negatively affect the attitude of 38% of the respondents towards the institutions of the Union and of 37% - towards the Union as a whole. • The negative effect is associated with the influence on the small and medium-sized business – 63%, on Bulgarian consumers – 59% and on foreign investors – 45%. • 41% associate it with negatives for themselves. The degree of negative expectations of this variant is comparable to the variant with EU home market access safeguard clause –43%. The fact that 34% of the interviewed do not think that this variant will affect them personally may be explained by the still poor and partial information on the matter.

  17. Main conclusions/12 • Expectations of realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria • The attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 with safeguard clause is negative. The variant of membership delay for 2008 is considered as more acceptable (to a certain extent due to the greater readiness for this scenario, as well as the ambiguity in respect of the safeguard clauses) • All variants of introduction of safeguard clauses, except for EU membership of Bulgaria without safeguard clause,will give rise to strong disappointment of the Euro-integration process and demotivate Bulgarians. • Regardless of the understanding that Bulgaria does not meet all requirements for membership, the expectations namely for membership in 2007 without safeguard clauseare high – 33% define this variant as the most probable. • The preferred among the rated as bad variants is accession in 2007 with introduction of justice and home affairs safeguard clause – 6%.

  18. RESULTS OF THE STUDY

  19. Evaluation of Bulgarian development What is the direction – right or wrong, of Bulgarian development? 36.4% Right 24.5% Neither right, nor wrong 30.7% Wrong 8.4% Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  20. Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria Do you, personally, support EU membership of Bulgaria? Support 72% 43.8% 27.7% Oppose 20% 10.3% 9.9% 8.3% Strongly Moderately Moderately Strongly Cannot support support oppose oppose say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  21. Expected effect of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 What, in your opinion, will be the effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 on: Country as a whole 32.4 36.3 7.2 10.4 7.3 6.5 Political stability 32.5 34.2 11.8 7.7 4.7 9.1 Economic development 29.7 36.8 6.2 14.0 6.7 6.6 Bulgarian institutions 30.4 33.7 12.2 4.6 4.1 15.2 Living standard 24.1 33.2 9.4 15.7 11.6 6.1 Political stability of Balkan countries 26.5 29.6 16.8 4.3 2.4 20.5 EU accession of the other 24.1 29.0 15.1 4.3 2.0 25.5 Balkan countries Economic development of the 21.6 29.5 19.7 4.8 2.6 21.9 Balkan countries 15.5 22.2 16.3 6.1 6.6 33.3 Accession of Turkey 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Positive Moderately positive No effect Basis: Total /808 respondents Moderately negative Negative Cannot say

  22. Expected positive effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 Which would be the positive effects for Bulgaria of the accession to EU? Raising of living standard 30% Foreign investment 13% Free movement of people 12% Opportunity for realization abroad 11% Decrease of crime 10% Observance of the laws 9% Development and stability of economy 8% Opening of new jobs 8% Reduction of unemployment 7% Struggle against corruption 6% Public peace 4% Economic stability 4% Improvement of legislation 4% Political stability 3% Limiting of grey economy 2% Raising of the quality of goods 2% Clear rules 2% Larger markets 2% Improvement of health care system 2% Prosperity of Bulgaria 2% Basis: Total /808 respondents/ Improvement of infrastructure 2% Improvement of education 2% Other 12% No positive effects 5% Cannot say 14%

  23. Expected negative effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 Which would be the negative effects for Bulgaria of the accession to EU? Deterioration of living standard 23% Raising of prices 22% Bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business 12% Increase of unemployment 6% Inability to respond to the competition 6% Difficult adaptation to EU requirements 4% Overall dependence 4% 3% Emigration of the young Economic dependence 2% Increase of crime 2% Deterioration of economy 2% Cheap labour force 2% Higher taxes 2% Losing of national identity 2% Basis: Total /808 respondents/ Rise in energy resource prices 2% 13% Other No positive effects 4% Cannot say 24%

  24. Expected effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 Do you, personally, expect to occur the following after accession of the country to EU? Strengthening of the interest of 51.3 36.8 3.4 2.4 6.1 foreign investors in Bulgaria Respect of human rights and liberties 42.9 37.2 7.6 6.3 6.0 Guarantee of goods’ quality 34.6 45.1 6.4 6.4 7.5 and protection of consumers Bulgaria becoming a 35.7 39.5 9.7 8.2 6.8 state under law Establishment of conditions for 32.6 41.3 12.8 8.7 4.6 restriction of organised crime Establishment of conditions for 34.9 35.7 12.0 10.9 6.5 restriction of corruption Establishment and consolidation of stable 33.2 37.1 9.7 7.8 12.1 legal and institutional environment Improvement of the economic 22.7 30.2 18.9 21.8 6.4 well-being of the people in the country Better conditions for development of entrepreneurship and small and 18.2 25.4 18.9 24.8 12.7 medium-sized business 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Yes Moderate Yes Moderate No No Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  25. The most important opportunities for Bulgaria of EU membership in 2007 Which are the most important opportunities for Bulgaria of its accession to EU? max 3.00 Importance The three most important and most often pointed out 2.50 1. Improvement of 2. Establishment of conditions the economic for restriction of corruption well-being of people Respect of human Establishment of stable 3. Establishment of conditions rights and liberties Coefficient of importance 2.00 legal and institutional for restriction of crime and corruption environment Better conditions for development Strengthening of the interest of of entrepreneurship foreign investors and business Guarantee of the quality of 1.50 goods and protection of consumers The least important and least pointed out % 1.00 % 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 min Percent responses Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  26. Expected effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 What do you expect will be the effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU on: EU condition 15.8 33.2 16.0 6.8 25.0 3.2 EU economy 15.4 35.0 17.2 5.9 23.7 2.8 Life of the people 13.7 28.8 13.3 5.6 34.4 4.2 in EU countries 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Positive Moderately positive No effect moderately negative Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  27. Expected effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 When do you, personally, expect Bulgaria to be accepted in EU? When is the best time for Bulgaria to be accepted in EU? + 9% In time – 1st January 2007 47.1% 55.9% without safeguard clauses - 10% With one year delay - 2008 22.8% 12.3% - 3% 12.5% 9.6% After 2008 + 3% Don’t expect at all 7.9% 10.6% to be accepted + 2% Cannot say 9.6% 11.5% Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  28. Attitude towards the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria How would you, personally, feel, in case of realisation of one of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? Full membership % 35.2 36.4 8.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 in 2007 Delay for 2008 6.4 19.4 42.6 13.9 9.3 8.4 Membership in 2007 with EU home market access 2.6 10.6 37.2 30.9 10.5 8.2 safeguard clause Membership in 2007 with justice and home affairs 6.3 21.6 28.5 20.7 12.2 10.7 safeguard clause Membership in 2007 2.3 9.8 30.3 40.5 9.4 7.8 with two safeguard clauses 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Fully content Moderately content Moderately disappointed Very disappointed Cannot say Not interested Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  29. Attitude towards EU in the different variants of membership of Bulgaria How will your attitude towards EU change in each of the following variants of membership of Bulgaria? % 70.0 62.6 60.0 50.0 41.0 38.9 40.0 36.7 32.6 31.6 30.1 30.0 27.5 25.3 24.3 19.5 20.0 17.8 17.3 16.9 16.1 15.6 14.2 14.1 10.2 10.0 7.8 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positively No change Negatively Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  30. Attitude towards EU institutionsin the different variants of membership of Bulgaria How will your attitude towards EU institutions change in each of the following variants of membership of Bulgaria? % 70.0 60.9 60.0 50.0 42.4 38.9 38.1 40.0 32.6 31.6 31.2 30.0 27.5 24.8 23.7 19.5 18.7 20.0 17.6 16.6 16.4 15.4 14.5 13.4 11.3 8.1 10.0 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positively No change Negatively Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  31. Attitude towards Bulgarian government in the different variants of EU membership How will you attitude towards the government of Bulgaria change in case of each of the variants of EU membership of the country? % 70.0 61.2 59.5 60.0 57.5 49.2 50.0 44.3 40.0 33.4 30.0 21.8 21.5 21.4 20.0 16.2 15.8 14.3 13.6 13.6 11.3 11.0 9.6 9.1 8.3 10.0 7.4 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positively No change Negatively Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  32. Expected effect on Bulgarian economy in the different variants of EU membership What will be the effect of EU membership of Bulgaria on the economy of the country in each of the following variants? % 70,0 59,0 60,0 54,8 52,5 50,0 39,1 40,0 37,0 36,1 28,1 30,0 23,3 19,3 19,3 18,5 20,0 16,6 16,5 14,3 14,2 12,7 11,6 10,1 9,4 10,0 7,6 0,0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  33. Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on small and medium-sized business What will be the effect on small and medium-sized business of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? % 80.0 70.0 65.0 63.0 60.0 50.1 50.0 46.1 40.0 33.2 32.8 30.8 30.0 19.4 19.1 18.3 18.1 20.0 16.9 16.2 15.2 11.8 11.0 9.5 9.4 8.8 10.0 5.3 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  34. Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on Bulgarian consumers What will be the effect on Bulgarian consumers of the following variants for EU membership of Bulgaria? % 70.0 58.6 58.5 60.0 50.0 41.3 40.2 40.2 40.0 36.8 30.0 26.9 25.9 22.4 18.4 20.0 17.5 16.4 15.6 15.6 13.9 13.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 8.8 10.0 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  35. Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on foreign investors What will be the effect on foreign investors of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? 100.0 % 90.0 82.2 80.0 70.0 60.0 51.6 50.0 44.6 43.5 40.3 40.0 30.0 24.7 22.8 21.7 20.0 19.3 17.8 17.7 17.2 20.0 15.4 15.3 14.4 13.7 8.2 10.0 4.8 4.8 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  36. Effect of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on grey economy What will be the effect on grey economy of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? % 60.0 50.0 46.2 42.6 40.0 33.5 31.5 30.1 30.0 27.5 27.4 25.3 25.1 24.4 23.1 22.7 20.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 20.0 17.2 15.9 15.2 14.0 10.0 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  37. Expected personal effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria What will be the effect on you, personally, of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? % 50.0 43.0 42.5 41.0 40.0 37.2 35.8 34.3 33.7 32.6 31.8 30.0 24.4 22.1 19.0 20.0 17.7 17.6 16.6 13.9 12.0 11.0 10.0 7.1 6.7 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents

  38. Effects of the different variants of EU membership on the crime in the country What will be the effect on the crime in the countryof the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria? % 50.0 39.7 40.0 35.0 33.8 31.0 29.8 29.2 30.0 28.2 28.2 26.6 23.3 23.2 22.3 21.8 20.4 20.3 18.7 18.6 20.0 18.4 17.7 13.6 10.0 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  39. Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on the other countries from the region, awaiting their EU membership What will be the effect on the countries from the region, awaiting their EU membership, of the following variants of Bulgarian membership? % 60.0 50.1 50.0 40.0 36.3 36.1 34.8 33.6 32.9 32.2 30.2 28.5 30.0 25.7 25.1 24.3 24.0 23.8 20.0 14.9 13.9 9.7 9.1 8.3 10.0 6.5 0.0 Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5 Positive No effect Negative Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  40. Expectations of the realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria Which of the following Which of the following Which of the following variants is the most variants is the most variants is most acceptable acceptable for Bulgaria? probable for Bulgaria? for you, personally? Variant 1 59% 57% 33% Variant 2 13% 11% 23% Variant 3 1% 1% 5% Variant 4 6% 5% 9% Variant 5 5% 3% 13% Bulgaria does not 9% 12% 7% become EU member Cannot 8% 12% 10% say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  41. Factors of EU membership of Bulgaria If Bulgaria becomes EU member on 1st If EU membership of Bulgaria is January 2007, what will be the main delayed for 2008, what will be the reason for its acceptance? main reason for the delay? Insufficient readiness 68,5% EU global strategy 29,9% of Bulgaria Unsolved internal problems Internal interests 11,8% 26,6% within the member states of member states Our natural Problems in the EU structures 8,6% 18,8% belonging to Europe Unsolved internal problems Readiness and reforms 8% 14,2% of the country within the member states Other 1,5% Other 1% No answer 1,6% Cannot say 9,4% Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  42. Effects on Bulgaria of EU membership delay for 2008 3.4 10.8 14.2 38.0 20.4 13.2 Country as a whole Economic development 4.3 12.0 15.9 37.9 17.9 12.0 Political stability 4.5 8.8 21.6 37.8 13.6 13.7 Living standard 2.2 9.1 27.6 30.4 17.8 12.8 Bulgarian institutions 3.5 8.9 20.4 30.7 16.0 20.5 Accession of the other Balkan 3.0 5.6 28.5 23.4 9.7 29.6 countries to EU Economic development of 2.6 4.3 34.7 21.9 7.5 29.0 Balkan countries Accession of Turkey 2.1 3.8 27.4 16.6 11.4 38.7 Political stability of 2.4 4.5 40.8 17.0 7.1 28.2 Balkan countries 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Positive Moderately positive No effect Basis: Total /808 respondents/ Moderately negative Negative Cannot say What will be the effect of possible delay of the accession of Bulgaria to EU for 2008 on:

  43. Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership in 2007 To what extent does Bulgaria comply with the requirements for EU membership? Does not comply 51% Complies 39% 32.8% 31.4% 19.5% 10.2% 6% Fully complies Moderately Does not Cannot Moderately does complies not comply comply at all say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  44. Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership in 2008 Hebros Bank Do you think that, if EU membership is delayed for 2008, the country will be more ready than it is now? Yes 42% No 27% 24.9% 17.0% 15.8% 15.7% 14.2% 12.4% Yes Moderate Yes No effect Moderate No No Cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

  45. Attitude towards EU membership of countries from the region To what extent do you approve the EU accession of the following Balkan countries? Romania 41.5 31.4 4.1 4.5 18.5 Serbia 37.6 33.9 6.7 4.3 17.5 Macedonia 37.2 33.9 4.5 5.5 18.9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 33.0 31.0 7.5 7.3 21.1 Turkey 23.9 23.4 12.6 17.8 22.4 Albania 21.6 23.8 13.7 17.6 23.4 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Fully approve Moderately approve Moderately disapprove Fully disapprove cannot say Basis: Total /808 respondents/

More Related